Europe is now returning to its position as the main source of danger for all of humanity. But it does not mean that we in Russia should fence ourselves off from our Western neighbours and not pay them any attention.
Europe has always been a source of concern for the rest of the world, from the time when the Greek pirates unleashed their aggression on the ancient civilisation of the Nile Valley to the latest attempts by Europeans to interfere in African affairs or behave aggressively in Ukraine. The collapse of colonial empires in the second half of the 20th
century and the gradual fall of Europe under the dominance of the United States somewhat improved the situation: Europe no longer poses such a colossal danger. However, it still strives to continue its traditional policies, based on dividing the surrounding world and choosing force over diplomacy.
The incantations of European politicians may now look comical: they have extremely limited economic, political and demographic resources to make their threats dangerous. However, the dead end of development in which Europe has found itself thanks to its worthless leaders may bring many more unpleasant surprises to the surrounding world. Paradoxically, Europe has long ceased to be the centre of world politics, but remains at the centre of politics because it is here that the highest probability of reasons for a direct clash between the most powerful military powers on the planet exists.
For one of them, Russia, Europe is an old acquaintance and historical enemy that began its aggression against Moscow in the darkest days of our national history. For centuries, Russia has dealt with attempts by Europeans to subjugate it or force it to act under their dictation. These attempts have consistently met with decisive resistance, which has come to underscore relations between Russia and Europe. Now, as a response to the accumulated problems of development, European politicians are promoting crazy ideas of militarising Europe in response to the alleged “Russian threat”. Despite the fact that objectively, the implementation of these plans is hampered by a number of obvious factors, they themselves can cause justified wariness in Russia. First of all, this is because historically Europe has always sought a solution to its internal problems in wars with its neighbours. These problems are really big. First, the model of the socio-economic structure of most large European countries is in crisis. Britain, which left the European Union not so long ago, is no exception. The exhaustion of the possibilities for leading a parasitic existence in relation to the rest of the world now threatens European politicians with a loss of power due to the growing economic difficulties of the population. The demographic situation is worsening: aging has led to increased pressure on social systems, and the region’s loss of control over migration has caused the growth of the popularity of right-wing forces, and the hardening of the rhetoric and actions of the traditional elites. A great example here is little Finland, where economic and social problems have led to the growth of militarism and attempts to hide the difficulties behind the curtain of confrontation with Russia.
Second, what we used to call European integration has long been in crisis. Created at a time when the world situation was exceptionally favourable, the union of European countries and its institutions in Brussels are experiencing the worst times in their history. The authority of the EU’s common bodies is declining, and national governments are in no hurry to share their powers in the economic and political spheres with them. For more than 15 years, EU leaders have been determining who will occupy the top posts in Brussels based on two basic criteria: incompetence and corruption. The reason is that since the economic crisis of 2009-2013, the EU countries have completely lost the desire to do anything to strengthen it and continue the mutual opening of key markets. Independent figures with their own ideas would no longer be in demand in Brussels.
Europe has long forgotten about politicians like Jacques Delors or even Romano Prodi, who, among other things, understood perfectly well the need to negotiate with Russia, rather than quarrel. However, incompetence is never an insurance policy against ambition: this is exactly what happens with politicians like Ursula von der Leyen or the new EU representative for foreign policy, Kaja Kallas. Now the European bureaucrats are completely deprived of the opportunity to realise their ambitions within Europe, and they are using what is available to them – a conflict with Russia. Brussels has been trying to squeeze the maximum career achievements out of it for several years now. The reason why Brussels is becoming the world centre of Russophobia in its strangest manifestations is the inability of the European bureaucracy to develop in other directions, its limitations by the member states of the European Union themselves.
Third, Europe’s authority on the world stage is steadily declining. The main reason is the inability of the Europeans themselves to think at least a little about how their behaviour looks from the outside. Not to mention the ability to take into account the interests of its partners. Europe is completely devoid of empathy and looks at the world around it with the indifference of a madman who sees no one but himself.
Economic opportunities still create certain advantages for Europeans. However, converting them into political influence is becoming increasingly difficult: countries and peoples are simply not ready to deal with the current “sick man” of world politics. The most striking example here is the displacement of France from those African countries where Paris was able to retain a certain level of influence after the collapse of its colonial empire. Now these positions are being curtailed, giving way to the desire of local regimes to more independently determine their future, relying on the forces of Russia, the United States, or even China.
And, finally, Europe’s relations with its main strategic partner and patron – the United States – have entered a period of uncertainty. We do not yet know how domestic political processes will develop in America itself. However, they are already causing a lot of anxiety for European elites, who are accustomed to basking in the complete absence of responsibility for their foreign policy decisions. This is partly the reason for Europe’s growing aggressiveness towards Russia: the Europeans are trying to attract the attention of the US, to show their usefulness by inflating a completely far-fetched conflict. Moreover, representatives of the new American government have repeatedly spoken about the lack of grounds for objective contradictions between Russia and the US. In Europe, such statements only cause panic. They understand that the Americans will not allow them to reach an agreement with Russia completely independently, but will share less of the benefits that they extract from the entire world economy.
In other words, Europe is now returning to its position as the main source of danger for all of humanity. Does this mean that we in Russia should fence ourselves off from our Western neighbours and not pay them any attention?
This is the conclusion that can be reached if we look, for example, at the dynamics of Russian foreign trade, where Asian countries are increasingly taking up more and more space.
It seems that this would not be the right strategy. In the event that the adventurous behaviour of incompetent European elites does not become the cause of a large-scale military tragedy in the coming years, we in Russia will still have to deal with Europe. Therefore, it makes sense to think about possible scenarios for its development, to try to expand knowledge about the state of our Western neighbours. Which, naturally, does not mean the need to take for granted their behaviour on the world stage and, especially, in relation to Russia. Until the “sick man” of world politics dies or gets on the path to recovery, we need to monitor his condition closely.
Source: Valdai Discussion Club.
