RIAC Roundtable “Russian–Armenian Cooperation at the Present Stage”

On June 2, 2025, the TASS Press Center hosted a RIAC roundtable on “Russian–Armenian Cooperation at the Present Stage.” The event included a presentation of RIAC Policy Brief No. 59 / 2025.

Participants noted that for much of their shared history, Russian–Armenian relations have been marked by a high degree of mutual trust and a traditionally warm dynamic grounded in the cultural affinity between the two societies. Since 2022, however, ties between Moscow and Yerevan have entered a period of cooling. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan on May 21, 2025, has created an opening for a potential reset and renewed positive momentum in the bilateral relationship.

On June 2, 2025, the TASS Press Center hosted a RIAC roundtable on “Russian–Armenian Cooperation at the Present Stage.” The event included a presentation of RIAC Policy Brief.

Participants noted that for much of their shared history, Russian–Armenian relations have been marked by a high degree of mutual trust and a traditionally warm dynamic grounded in the cultural affinity between the two societies. Since 2022, however, ties between Moscow and Yerevan have entered a period of cooling. At the same time, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan on May 21, 2025, has created an opening for a potential reset and renewed positive momentum in the bilateral relationship.

Participants included:

• Tigran Meloyan, Analyst, Center for Mediterranean Studies, HSE University

• Nikolay Silaev, Leading Research Fellow, Institute for International Studies (IIS), MGIMO University

• Anna Pak, Associate Professor, Department of International Economic Relations, RUDN University

• Evgeniya Goryushina, Head of the Caucasus Studies Section, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences; Research Fellow, Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, HSE University

• Dmitry Sidorov, Head of the Department of Foreign Regional Studies, Moscow State Linguistic University

• Andrey Areshev, Political Analyst, Expert at the Foundation for Strategic Culture

Discussion Highlights

Tigran Meloyan

• Russia continues to view Armenia as a strategic partner and ally in the South Caucasus and remains committed to maintaining a constructive dialogue with Yerevan.

• The current period of geopolitical turbulence has exposed shortcomings in Russia’s and Armenia’s ability to meet each other’s expectations. As a result, bilateral relations have experienced a degree of erosion, despite the existing potential for revitalizing closer cooperation.

• Yerevan’s efforts to engage extra-regional actors in addressing its security challenges, as well as its decision to diversify suppliers of weapons and military equipment, have inevitably affected the intensity of its military-technical cooperation with Moscow.

• Economic ties between Armenia and Russia remain broad, despite Yerevan’s declarative steps toward European integration (the EU is not conducting substantive negotiations with the Republic) and the ongoing political tensions in its relations with Moscow.

• For any reset in bilateral cooperation, restoring trust must be the first priority. Trust is the key factor—and the missing element—in contemporary Russian-Armenian relations, without which both sides will continue to view each other’s actions with a degree of skepticism.

Nikolay Silaev

• It is important to avoid the illusion that Armenia’s foreign policy course is coherent or strategically well-calibrated. After 2022, Yerevan attempted simultaneously to maintain constructive relations with Russia while rapidly pursuing agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey, relying on anticipated support from the European Union.

• In practice, the only actors that currently provide Armenia with legally binding security guarantees are Russia and the CSTO.

• Yerevan’s attempts to pivot toward other external partners have so far produced no tangible results. Without signed agreements with Azerbaijan and Turkey, Armenia’s security remains unresolved.

• Under current conditions, Armenia’s leadership appears to be cautiously turning back toward restoring full-fledged relations with Russia and strengthening the previously established strategic partnership.

Anna Pak

• The framework of Eurasian integration, in which Armenia remains an important participant, provides a stable platform for trade and investment cooperation.

• Armenia’s exports to EAEU member states continue to grow steadily, with nearly half of all exports going to Russia.

• There are no economic grounds to suggest that Armenia might leave the EAEU: the economic ties between Armenia and other member states are too substantial and structurally significant.

• The potential consequences of Armenia’s withdrawal from the EAEU would include a sharp decline in exports, reduced investment activity, and the loss of access to the single market. Membership in the integration bloc provides Armenia with a wide range of economic benefits that currently serve as a key factor supporting the country’s overall stability.

Evgeniya Goryushina

• In an environment of security instability, it is essential to take into account the reactions of neighboring states and shape strategic decisions with the broader regional balance of power in mind.

• A notable new trend in Armenia’s defense policy is its cooperation with India and France on arms procurement, which has raised concerns in Azerbaijan and among other regional actors.

• Armenia is considering a possible revision of its participation mechanism within the CSTO, including a shift toward more flexible bilateral formats of cooperation.

• A degree of distancing from Russia can be observed in Armenia’s current policy, and overcoming this gap may require a strategic reassessment of priorities.

Dmitry Sidorov

• Proposals to reform the CSTO under current conditions appear largely unrealistic, although in the longer-term Armenia’s full participation in the Organization may be restored.

• Armenia’s leadership is placing greater emphasis on diversifying its foreign policy, including by developing closer ties with the European Union. However, despite these efforts, Russia remains the only actor currently capable of providing Armenia with concrete security guarantees.

• It is important to strengthen dialogue not only with Armenia’s political leadership but also with Armenian society, where frustration and growing concern have been recorded.

• A positive signal came from the recent visit of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to Yerevan, after which both sides expressed readiness to put mutual grievances behind them and open a new stage of dialogue. This could serve as a foundation for strengthening Russian–Armenian relations in the future.

Andrey Areshev

• Particular attention should be paid to the stagnation of the negotiation process within the CSTO. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his team continue to advance a peace agenda, emphasizing stabilization and the normalization of relations in the region.

• A possible next step could be the withdrawal of Russian military personnel from Armenian territory, which would signal a shift in the format of security cooperation.

• Going forward, the future of bilateral relations will depend on the ability of both sides to find a balance between historical expectations, political interests, and current security challenges.