The unprovoked attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on 28 February 2026 marked the beginning of a new phase in the crisis that has gripped the Middle East almost continuously for several years. Its origins lie in the combination of the extraordinary complexity of regional politics and the intervention of the world’s wealthiest and most heavily armed power. The consequence is a tightly tangled knot of contradictions among the region’s states, where fierce rivalry coexists with an ability to reach pragmatic agreements—agreements which, however, inevitably remain merely tactical solutions within an almost unbroken cycle of conflict.
There has never been genuine stability in the Middle East, and in that sense it is indeed a unique arena of international politics. Yet even the most tragic events in the region have never, in reality, prompted fears that their escalation might have catastrophic consequences for humanity as a whole. First, because the clashes taking place there have never affected the vital interests of the great powers—the United States and the Soviet Union in the twentieth century, and now the United States, Russia, and China. All of them have regarded the region primarily as an important arena for competition, but not for a struggle requiring the full deployment of their resources. Second, the region itself has lacked powers capable of pursuing revolutionary policies on a global scale. In other words, interstate contradictions in the Middle East have always been a bleeding wound of global politics, but one incapable of bringing about a dramatic outcome for the entire organism of the international system.
A geopolitical whirlwind unleashed by the US-Israeli attack on Iran is sweeping across the Middle East and spilling out beyond the troubled region. Timofei Bordachev, Valdai Club Programme Director, explores the stakes global powers have in the unfolding crisis, pondering the conflict’s consequences for great power rivalry and the international system as a whole.
The unprovoked attack by the United States and Israel on Iran on 28 February 2026 marked the beginning of a new phase in the crisis that has gripped the Middle East almost continuously for several years. Its origins lie in the combination of the extraordinary complexity of regional politics and the intervention of the world’s wealthiest and most heavily armed power. The consequence is a tightly tangled knot of contradictions among the region’s states, where fierce rivalry coexists with an ability to reach pragmatic agreements—agreements which, however, inevitably remain merely tactical solutions within an almost unbroken cycle of conflict.
There has never been genuine stability in the Middle East, and in that sense it is indeed a unique arena of international politics. Yet even the most tragic events in the region have never, in reality, prompted fears that their escalation might have catastrophic consequences for humanity as a whole. First, because the clashes taking place there have never affected the vital interests of the great powers—the United States and the Soviet Union in the twentieth century, and now the United States, Russia, and China. All of them have regarded the region primarily as an important arena for competition, but not for a struggle requiring the full deployment of their resources. Second, the region itself has lacked powers capable of pursuing revolutionary policies on a global scale. In other words, interstate contradictions in the Middle East have always been a bleeding wound of global politics, but one incapable of bringing about a dramatic outcome for the entire organism of the international system.
Now, however, the situation has changed abruptly. To be sure, the major global powers are still not affected by the conflict to such an extent as to provoke destructive action on a worldwide scale. Yet the consequences of the clash between the United States–Israel coalition and Iran have rapidly become a source of global economic instability, creating conditions in which all countries that could be considered significant players may reconsider their strategic priorities—both in terms of development and of ensuring their own security.
Tehran’s resolute response—halting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, as well as launching attacks against American military bases and other facilities in the Persian Gulf—came as a surprise to most countries and to participants in the global market. Overnight, supply routes crucial for the provision of energy resources to a number of major powers, including giants such as China and India, were disrupted. Taken together, many observers believe, these developments may exert such a destabilising effect on the global economy that it could begin sliding towards a worldwide recession.
Even more significant are the political consequences. The entire world has seen that a major regional conflict can undermine the very foundations of economic ties that, until recently, were considered unshakeable—even amid broader stabilisation. Equally shocking and instructive have been the purely political outcomes of the conflict. The evident inability of the United States, despite its military might, to secure victory using only conventional weapons has once again cast doubt on the entire concept of America’s decisive influence over world affairs. Until very recently, despite an obvious reduction in its available resources, the United States was still widely regarded as a power capable, in any circumstances, of bringing a vastly weaker opponent to its knees.
An additional example reinforcing this perception was the swift overthrow of the president of relatively small Venezuela on 3 January 2026 and the abrupt shift in that country’s political course. It was with such expectations that, two months later, the world approached the American and Israeli attack on Iran. Yet within days it became clear that the stated objectives of the war did not appear achievable: Iran’s political system withstood a devastating blow to its top leadership, no internal unrest emerged, and its armed forces retained the capacity to operate even under constant aerial pressure.
Most observers agree that the primary reason for the failure of the plan for a swift victory lay in the resilience of the Iranian people and state—something the attacking side had clearly failed to take into account. We do not yet know how the crisis created by the United States and Israel will develop, but even its interim consequences already provide grounds for important conclusions.
For the United States itself, the attack on Iran was, of course, a war of choice rather than necessity. For all its combined capabilities, the Iranian government neither possessed the resources nor demonstrated the intent to pose a fundamental threat to America’s survival or its core interests.
To some extent, such a threat could be said to exist with regard to Israel, Washington’s closest ally in the region. However, despite their closeness, the interests of Israel and the United States are not identical. This is precisely why, even when faced with the prospect of de facto defeat, Washington has been unwilling to resort to the most radical military means against its adversary.
At present, regardless of how the current phase of the conflict concludes, one may expect a certain degree of reflection within the United States on what has occurred. There is also hope that the lessons of the attack on Iran may prompt Americans to reassess their ambitions in global and regional politics, aligning them more closely with the realities so clearly exposed by the Iranian crisis. This, however, will encounter obstacles—whether under the current administration in Washington or any future one.
First, the United States is, in fact, a power whose political elite arguably possesses one of the narrowest foreign-policy outlooks today. Decades spent near the summit of global politics, and in relative insulation from most of the world’s problems, have led American politicians and thinkers to view the world almost exclusively through the prism of their own state. Second, over the past eighty years the United States has accumulated an extraordinary number of commitments across different parts of the world, the mere maintenance of which creates fertile ground for ventures and failures such as the Iranian episode.
For China, widely regarded as the United States’ principal strategic competitor, the events surrounding Iran also offer cause for reflection. Above all, Beijing seeks to maintain relations with the current American administration that are restrained yet respectful. However, the very fact of the US attack on Iran—violating all norms of international law—significantly narrows the room for manoeuvre and compels Beijing to adopt a more demanding stance towards Washington, expecting concessions in return. All the more so since this unprovoked attack has been followed by a clear display of American weakness.
Moreover, the severe damage inflicted by the conflict around Iran on the global economy and energy supplies is prompting China to reassess the security of its own supply chains. This is particularly relevant given the substantial investments Chinese companies have made in Iran and other Middle Eastern countries, and their growing concern over how destructive political upheavals may prove. It is conceivable that China may now begin to reconsider its strategy of economic engagement with distant and vulnerable regions.
Russia, for its part, has appeared to many as a beneficiary of the conflict. Indeed, the dramatic events surrounding Iran have led to a significant rise in prices for Russia’s principal export commodities. They have also altered the conditions in which a separate, Moscow-proximate international political crisis in Eastern Europe is unfolding. Yet in the longer term, Russia does not appear interested in a complete collapse of American influence in the Middle East. In moderate measure, that influence forms part of the complex diplomatic landscape that Russia views as a foundation for relatively peaceful global development.
In other words, the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran—and, above all, their failure to achieve their objectives—has already posed new questions for all the great powers, while simultaneously opening certain opportunities for political dialogue. Making use of these opportunities would be highly beneficial for international politics as a whole.
Source: Valdai. Discussion club
