Reports continue to grow of an increase in Russian troops along the border with Ukraine. But how likely, really, is a military invasion of Ukraine? Russia Direct asked the experts.
Andrei Kortunov, General Director of the Russian International Affairs Council
It is premature to say that Russia’s troops will invade Eastern Ukraine. After all, Russia has no plans to deploy its troops there, according to official information that was confirmed by Russia’s Foreign Ministry and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu.
However, under certain circumstances, Moscow might interfere. Yet, such interference might be justified only in the case of total havoc and chaos in Kiev, if Ukraine is in total collapse, if radicals increase their influence in the country. Given the recent events and increasing activity from the Right Sector radical organization, the turmoil in Ukraine is far from having been resolved.
Nevertheless, currently, there is no such situation in the country that would justify Russia’s interference. We also should keep in mind the response of the West, which strongly opposes such a scenario and makes no bones about the grave consequences that would result. And the Russian authorities are mindful about it.