Andrey Kortunov

RIAC and ECFA Report № 68/2021

RIAC and IISS of Peking University Report #66 / 2021

RIAC and ISPI Joint Report

It would be very disappointing if the international community were to respond to the events of 2020 in the same near-sighted, fearful and inadequate manner that it responded to the events of 2008–2009

RIAC–RUSI Report

CSIS and RIAC Report

RIAC and Africa Business Initiative Union Joint Report #53/2020

Report No. 41/2019

Report No. 48/2019

The Working Group on the Future of U.S.-Russia Relations’ Report

RIAC and RUSI Report, #45 / 2019

CSIS and RIAC Report

Based on discussions with experts, officials and military figures in Moscow, European capitals and NATO Headquarters, this report identifies practical steps to stabilise the Russia-NATO confrontation

RIAC and RUSI Report No. 38/2018

A Forecasting Report

A Report of the CSIS Russia and Eurasia Program and the Russian International Affairs Council

RIAC and VIF Report #34, 2017

RIAC and CSR Report

RIAC and RUSI Report #32, 2017

RIAC and IRAS Working Paper #59/2020

Can Russia and the EU interact constructively on the Syrian issue?

Unlike in September 2001, today the international community is no longer united around Washington in confronting this global challenge

The Kremlin succeeded in making its presence in Syria stable, financially affordable and generally acceptable to the Russian public. The White House failed to do the same in Afghanistan

Northeast Asia entered the 21st century without quite bidding goodbye to the previous era

Finding solution to some problems would actually be easier without Washington, since the U.S. is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution

Claims to global leadership should imply additional responsibilities from the part of the United States

Should humankind fail to agree on some civilizational synthesis within the next couple of decades, “globalization 2.0” will definitely fall short of accomplishing the most fundamental mission of the…

Most of the Russian experts focus on the multiple challenges that the EU encounters today rather than on the obvious historical achievements of the European project

Recent years have ushered in a historically protracted process of rectification, vodka and political realism in global politics

Neither Moscow nor Brussels needs another “ceremonial” summit

The Soviet Union collapsed long ago; this date still unites us

The time has come for SCO member states to bring this body out to the light and to rise up to a new, post-US Afghan challenge

Africa should become a global project that could unite East and West, Atlantic liberals and Eurasian autocrats

Surely, nobody is willing to see another Helsinki scenario in June 2021, this time in Geneva. Yet, do we have good reason to hope for a different outcome this time?

The OSCE does not have a magic wand to fix numerous problems between Russia and the West, but it can offer a platform to discuss these problems in a rational and mutually respectful way

A collective security dream

The problem of trust between the people of Russia and Iran remains unresolved, if only because they have very poor knowledge of each other

The main findings of the workshop on ‘European Security’ organised by RUSI and RIAC in February 2021

The door for US-Russian negotiations is still open

What if four or five out of the seven vulnerable straits and canals were blocked at once?

A one-year extension to the current aid arrangements would be no one’s first choice—but would ensure civilians in Idlib continue to receive help

To Prevent a Full-Scale War from Starting, The Situation in Donbass Needs to Be Stabilized

Neither in Moscow nor in Beijing do they harbor illusions about opportunities to fix their problems with Washington anytime soon

What kind of Syria would we like to see and might we see by March 2031?

Like Asgard, Armenia is not a place, it is a people

It seems that today, in most societies, the public puts fairness before freedom

Russia must be able to demonstrate results that exceed those in its attempts to integrate into Globalisation 1.0 at the beginning of the century

Combining Alexander’s global universalism and noble idealism with Aristotle’s rational democracy and political pluralism could usher in radically new development directions for our world

Russia and India are going to lose a lot if they have to take sides in this forthcoming US-China rivalry

We may assume that if at least half of these tasks are fulfilled, then the next 12 months can be rightfully deemed a success for Russia’s foreign policy

We will not see an early US-Russian summit in 2021

The only plausible alternative to multilateralism is not a restoration of an old bipolar, unipolar or multipolar order, but a global disorder with no agreed-upon rules, procedures and hierarches of…

Although the U.S.-China-Russia triangle is still a popular and useful analytical pattern and possible future scenario for relations, it does not resemble that of the Cold War

Even a partial restoration of transatlantic unity under a President Biden will be a blow to the official Kremlin narrative about the inexorable movement of the international system toward a…

Biden’s harsh anti-Russian campaign rhetoric should not be taken literally

What lessons can Russia and Chine draw from the Korean War to better handle conflict?

If you expect Moscow to give in to external pressure and make concessions, you’ll be waiting a long time  

How Russia deals with its sphere of influence

The logic and dynamics of Turkey’s current foreign policy continue to place Erdogan in the middle of a minefield, where any step could prove fatal for his relations with Vladimir Putin

Current preliminary pencil sketches of the complex Eurasian structure of the future contain more questions than answers

A true reform of the UN cannot start in New York; it should start in national capitals of member states

Neither the coronavirus nor the economic recession will automatically lead to a détente, let alone a reset in relations between Russia and the West

In today’s world, societies cannot interact through the bottleneck of intergovernmental relations

Even if the political clouds are miraculously dispersed and the New START is revived in the coming months, it would not do much to bring back the Soviet-American model of arms control that took shape…

Yemen’s looming humanitarian disaster and its people’s pleas for peace require action on three levels

Just like the classics of Marxism-Leninism idealized the proletariat and demonized the bourgeoisie, the UN Secretary-General idealizes the South and demonizes the North

In order to put its relations with China back on track, the US political establishment will have to go through a complete generational change

The end of the current public health and economic crisis is nowhere in sight, but it’s already clear that both Moscow and Brussels will come out of it weakened, both in absolute terms and relative to…

Relations will continue to be built on the basis of the “lowest common denominator,” which effectively means the continuation of the current course of confrontation

Future governance structures should incorporate elements of the old order but prioritize emerging threats and the needs of rising powers

Multilateralism, like any other format of diplomatic activity, will always be as effective or ineffective as the players who practice them want

Crisis is not just a convenient pretext but also a solid reason for shaking up one's old foreign political "wardrobe"

The anniversary will become a reason to mourn the failed hopes of the past decade and an incentive to think about the opportunities offered by the next ten years

The Monkey King cannot sit it out atop the mountain

The West, particularly the United States, is crying out for an alternative to the Chinese coronavirus narrative. And now more so than ever, as the outlines of a post-corona bipolar world are coming…

The First Take on Humanity’s KPI in Combating the Coronavirus    

Some principles of the “responsible restriction of freedom” that the authorities of all countries should think about when such restrictions are inevitable

Either humanity will find the strength and determination to move to a new level of governance by relinquishing a part of the national sovereignty of states, or new pandemics will force us to pay an…

The G20 is too small and too exclusive to represent all of humanity, but in order to be an effective crisis manager at the global level, it is too large and heterogeneous

After the pandemic, a new agenda will emerge in the world, which will be determined by young people who are now under the house arrest of self-isolation. Suddenly, they will have had enough time to…

Preliminary results of the coronavirus test on society show the lack of instinct that is inherent in anybiological species to protect its population

Familiar Problems and New Challenges for Russia

For Russia, this election in relative terms will mean less than for many other international players

Since the European and Russian Elites Are Never Going to Agree on Values, Relations Should be Built on Interests Instead

Iran and the Arab states of the Gulf would gain from taking control over their security interests

For the United States, for the European Union, for Russia, for China and for many other leading players in world politics, the great turning point, most likely, will not be in 2020, but in 2024

We need humanity, creativity and efficiency for Europe 3.0. South Tyrol Case for Donbass

Crisis of the state system, Economic and financial disorder, the rise of non-state actors, climate change, migrations, decline of international institutions

A trumpet of Armageddon or a wakeup call?

Macron does not want to lose his shot at the now-vacant position of foreign policy leader of Europe, including regarding Russian, which is very important for the European Union

The harsh jungle laws of modern global politics are much more complicated than the rules which dictate the size, stamina and physical strength of inhabitants of the animal kingdom

Speaking notes for the European Meeting of the Trilateral Commission

However, will a world without NATO be better for Russia than a world with NATO?

The new generation of Europeans will find things much harder than we did

Speaking notes during the Beijing Forum 2019

Five Explanations for the Kremlin’s Recent Foreign Policy Dominance, and Why It’s Not Such a Rosy Picture After All

The Africa of today and especially the Africa of tomorrow will be too important for the world at large to approach it only as an extension of the ongoing Russia–UK confrontation

If the Aim of Russian Policy is to Resolve the Donbass Issue by Finding a Compromise Solution, then the Russian Leadership Has no Reason to Rejoice at Ukraine-Gate

Beyond the scope of the current security agenda, European experts generally do not see Moscow making any significant contribution to the future of the MENA

The task is to shorten the pause as much as possible and make the resumption of the talks as simple as possible  

First, it is too expensive; second, it is technically highly complicated; and, third, no active resident support is likely

What Happened at the 16th Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club?

Does Russia’s relative stability imply that Moscow will be by default the proactive side in its relationship with the European Union?

The sad reality of 2014 was either a historical inevitability or at least a completely predictable ending to a protracted play

On Russia’s World Order Evolution Narratives

Putin and Macron need each other, probably more so than they did two years ago

Politics in the US is becoming increasingly polarized, leaving millennials no other choice

The Bologna process gives us an idea of the possible format for restoring EU–Russia relations

Is Moscow capable of preserving the current status quo in Syria – and indeed in the region as a whole – in the long term, even if this status quo is in Russia’s interests?

How to ensure security and freedom of navigation in the Persian Gulf?

Even the most intractable European critics of the Kremlin will hardly object to cooperation in environmental issues

It’s in Russia’s interests to do everything possible not only to retain the support of the pragmatists, but to convince the skeptics that their fears are unfounded

How can we make progress in the US-Russia Relationship?

History has not ended, but “the last man” has already appeared on our common horizon

For all the importance of limiting and reducing nuclear arms, the priority task for all should be to prevent a nuclear war

Speech at the 5th International Conference “Russia and China: Cooperation in a New Era”

The “Russian issue” will not budge unless the slogans of the European Union are converted into detailed “road maps” and concrete proposals  

Iran in the Middle East: Regional Spoiler or Stakeholder?

An increased American pressure on Iran makes Tehran even more dependent on major US geopolitical adversaries — China and Russia

Most of the supposed “pro-Russian” European populists see the issue of Russia as nothing more than a bargaining chip in a higher-stakes game with Brussels

U.S.–Russia Relations after Mueller Report

A response to the “Russia is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China is a Peer, Not a Rogue” report by the RAND Corporation

What scale of sacrifice will it take to make humanity finally wake up with this self-preservation instinct, presumably inherent in all living things?

Is Brussels doomed to negotiate with Beijing from a position of weakness?

The German Chancellor unequivocally reaffirmed Germany’s candidacy for leader of Europe and, more importantly, outlined a course for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy” from the United States

Realistically, it is impossible to sit all regional and international players around the same table

No single power can ‘fix’ the current turmoil in the Middle East. Still, there may be scope for Russia–Europe cooperation in managing the region’s ills

The Eurasian Heartland of the 21st century is actually what Mackinder saw as the “inner crescent.” Primarily China and India, in relation to which the rest of the Eurasian massif – Russia, Central…

Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council Andrey Kortunov on the Future of Nuclear Arms Control

А chain reaction can be launched that will lead to the collapse of not only the bilateral system of strategic weapons control, but also to the erosion of the entire international regime

Traditional Technocratic Methods Can no Longer be Used to Solve Europe’s Problems

It is clear that the problem of nuclear arms will not fix itself

The Middle East is in a much more complicated and difficult situation now than Europe was back in 1975, and it appears that replicating the Helsinki Decalogue in the region would be unproductive

Relations with Kiev Should be Built on the Same Principles as those with, for Instance, Warsaw, Bratislava or Bucharest

Russia and its partners can arguably win the war, but they cannot win the peace in Syria

Presentation at the Fifth Abu Dhabi Strategic Debate, November 11.

As long as Trump and Putin talk now and then, the world can sleep peacefully

The present Russia-West conflict need not predetermine a difficult Russiaт-Western century. What are the scenarios? And what can be done?

Perhaps the term “arms control” itself should be revised

In recent decades great powers usually win the wars but lose at peace

Why Russia’s tilt towards Asia will continue

The second Putin —Trump summit should not be a repetition of the first

Arguments For and Against a Strong Europe

The transcontinental Berlin–Beijing axis could become a worthy strategic response to the unprecedentedly strong and brutal U.S. pressure

The Chinese role in the continent – like any Chinese step beyond its borders – is subject to a scrutiny by foreign politicians and experts

Russia is not an alternative to Turkey’s cooperation with the European Union; neither Turkey is a substitute for Russia working harder to resolve its problems with the United States and Europe

If Putin does not believe in the political future of Trump, the value of the Helsinki meeting in Putin’s eyes should have been quite limited

Trump can offer Putin nothing so attractive and so tempting that could put into question the centrality of China for Russia’s foreign policy

Putin-Trump Summit: Better Late Than Never

Multilateralism Instead of Multipolarity

The history of relations between the United States and Russia demonstrates that there is no substitute for personal contacts between the leaders of the two countries.

Washington consensus 2.0 / China–India Axis / Multipolar balance of power / New bipolarity

What Kind of Eurasia will Enter the 22nd Century

When did we in Moscow and you in Washington go from producing expert analysis to creating political propaganda?

How to cure the chronic paralysis of the Security Council?

The future of the SCO may consist in the role of integrator for the efforts of numerous players in the Eurasian political arena

Today chemical weapons pose a more challenging and dangerous threat than even nuclear ones. Recent events in the UK’s Salisbury and Syrian city of Duma make one reassess the problem of chemical…

A Scary Tale for the permanent members of the UN Security Council

A new government in Berlin is always a new opportunity — not only for Germany itself, but also for its international partners, Russia including

“No Man’s Land”, “New Cold War”, “Eurasian Melting Pot” or “Two legged Greater Europe”

Russia’s Foreign Policy in the Face of Confrontation with the West

Relations between Russia and the UK have taken a hard knock from recent events.

What, if this is a false flag?

The Cold War demonstrated that expulsions of diplomats produce no positive results whatsoever

What Britain's options really are, and how Russia might respond.

The concept of strategic stability as we have known it since early 1960s becomes antiquated and immaterial

The U.S.-Russia conflict is like a teenage fight. When should we stop the fight with no winners?

Russia made at least three tactical mistakes after the new Republican administration came to power

Washington is resolved to damaging Russia under Putin as much as it can. But Russia doesn't have to take a hard line

The former rebel and non-systemic candidate, a tireless fighter against the Washington establishment and the Deep State, in fact acknowledged his defeat. It's time to change Russia's tactics…

In 2017 Russian foreign policy started a painful process of reassessing its previous assumptions about the EU and its midterm prospects

Wilsoniansim: a Relic of a Bygone Era?

Regardless of how each of us sees the world in 2018, it seems apparent that this world can no longer be explained within traditional IR paradigms

Neither side is likely to achieve a decisive victory in the foreseeable future. And a protracted crisis will mean the accumulation of long-term problems for both Ukraine and Russia

The old arms control got into its ‘perfect storm’ and though the preservation of the Cold War heritage is indispensable, preservation per se is clearly not sufficient to provide for strategic…

CSIS and RIAC Meeting Report

The initiative to hold the Congress of the Syrian people in Sochi is not a dig against the Geneva process, but rather an attempt to strengthen Russia's position in the future dialogue with Europe…

The Dialogue with the North Korean Leadership Now Has to be Conducted from a Position of Weakness, Rather than one of Strength

An attempt to create a defense alliance similar to NATO in the Middle East does not look realistic

No system, biological or social, can exist without set of universal laws. Reducing complexity would dramatically increase the level of systemic risks and challenges

The unraveling instability and the rise of insecurity in the Gulf demonstrates that traditional models of providing regional security simply do not work in the XXI century

Seven aspects of the possible peacekeeping mission that require some kind of compromise to be reached by Moscow and Kiev

The task of integrating Russian social sciences and humanities into the global discourse remains for the most part unsolved

This conference report summarises the discussions at two bilateral meetings held in London and Moscow between experts from the UK and Russia

For the majority of neo-modernists the question of democracy and authoritarianism is drifting into the background, giving way to an issue they consider much more important, namely the border between…

RD Interview

How did the Cold War end?

Should the West be concerned about the Eurasian Economic Union? Is it a disguised attempt to resurrect the Soviet Union?

A crisis of liberalism does not equal a crisis of the liberal world order

Everybody knows that the Russian leadership never makes mistakes

Renaissance of Geopolitics?

An alternative to the tough line?

Without the human factor, nothing else is likely to work

An attempt to move beyond the traditional system of high-level meetings

The historical experience of Russia indicates the exact opposite about the virtues of isolationism

If the CW problem is successfully resolved, it is not the end of the Syrian tragedy

The UC Interview Series: Andrey Kortunov

Three questions to Andrey Kortunov

We are facing a generational change among the leaders of the world’s great powers

Interview for the EU-Russia Expert Network

Arguably, the most intriguing question of the Russian-French summit is whether Vladimir Putin has any new ideas on the Ukrainian settlement to share with Emmanuel Macron

Russia can do quite a lot at the political level, but it cannot replace Europe as a potential driver of Iran’s economic and social development

Franco-Russian Conversation with Andrey Kortunov and Michel Duclos

A Forecasting Report. Summary

Chipping Away at Four Gordian Knots. CSIS and RIAC Meeting Report

CSIS and RIAC Meeting Report