The United States will not leave NATO. The president cannot do this unilaterally, and the Senate would not allow it. Trump is frightening Europeans, but his real goals are to shift the bulk of the financial burden onto Europe and to reduce America's military commitments. The shift is happening—grudgingly, but it is happening.
Europe cannot create its own military bloc. There is no single European leader, nor a collective one—only deep-rooted contradictions. For the same reason, Europeans will not be able to transform NATO into an equal military alliance between US and Europe.
Against this backdrop, a different transformation becomes realistic: NATO evolving into an alliance where Europeans—spurred on by the "Russian threat"—actively build up their military power and prepare to fight Russia without direct U.S. involvement. At the same time, US, which retains dominant influence within NATO and exploits Europe's inability to present a united front, will continue to exercise strategic control over the continent.
These changes reflect long-term trends. They are unlikely to be reversed after Trump leaves the White House. For us in Russia, this means that the military threat on the western flank is changing shape. Instead of a monolithic hostile bloc centered on the United States, a less rigid, more asymmetric structure is taking form.
The United States will not leave NATO. The president cannot do this unilaterally, and the Senate would not allow it. Trump is frightening Europeans, but his real goals are to shift the bulk of the financial burden onto Europe and to reduce America's military commitments. The shift is happening—grudgingly, but it is happening.
Europe cannot create its own military bloc. There is no single European leader, nor a collective one—only deep-rooted contradictions. For the same reason, Europeans will not be able to transform NATO into an equal military alliance between US and Europe.
Against this backdrop, a different transformation becomes realistic: NATO evolving into an alliance where Europeans—spurred on by the "Russian threat"—actively build up their military power and prepare to fight Russia without direct U.S. involvement. At the same time, US, which retains dominant influence within NATO and exploits Europe's inability to present a united front, will continue to exercise strategic control over the continent.
These changes reflect long-term trends. They are unlikely to be reversed after Trump leaves the White House. For us in Russia, this means that the military threat on the western flank is changing shape. Instead of a monolithic hostile bloc centered on the United States, a less rigid, more asymmetric structure is taking form.
The European component of this structure—which for eighty years delegated its foreign and defense policy to its senior partner and is now beginning to rebel against him—may improvise recklessly, provoking Russia into a major war in Europe.
And this is already happening. Eighty years after the end of the World War II, the main threat of an armed conflict once again emanates for us from Europe—even if the forms this threat takes have changed dramatically.
