On November 6, 2025, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held another City Breakfast, on the theme “The U.S.–Japan–Republic of Korea Triangle in the Face of New Challenges,” at the F.M. Dostoevsky Library. Participants discussed the history of the triangle’s formation, assessed the current positions of each side, and analyzed the outcomes of recent meetings held in Tokyo and Seoul. Particular attention was given to the prospects for restoring relations between the three countries and Moscow.
Speakers included Anna Kireeva, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University; Vladimir Nelidov, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO University, and Research Fellow at the Center for Japanese Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); and Dmitry Kochegurov, Senior Research Fellow at the Georgy Arbatov Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS.
On November 6, 2025, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) held another City Breakfast, on the theme “The U.S.–Japan–Republic of Korea Triangle in the Face of New Challenges,” at the F.M. Dostoevsky Library. Participants discussed the history of the triangle’s formation, assessed the current positions of each side, and analyzed the outcomes of recent meetings held in Tokyo and Seoul. Particular attention was given to the prospects for restoring relations between the three countries and Moscow.
Speakers included Anna Kireeva, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for International Studies, MGIMO University; Vladimir Nelidov, Associate Professor at the Department of Oriental Studies, MGIMO University, and Research Fellow at the Center for Japanese Studies, Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS); and Dmitry Kochegurov, Senior Research Fellow at the Georgy Arbatov Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS.
Discussion Highlights
Anna Kireeva
- Despite the growing securitization of economic interaction with China, Japan maintains strong ties with Beijing and has no intention of severing them.
- Relations between South Korea and Japan tend to follow a cyclical pattern: under conservative administrations in Seoul, progress is achieved and new agreements are signed, whereas under progressive governments, cooperation tends to slow down or freeze altogether.
- Japan continues to regard North Korea as one of the main threats to its national security, while also using this issue as a convenient rationale for expanding its own defense and foreign policy activity.
Vladimir Nelidov
- Sanae Takaichi’s rise to power is unlikely to lead to a long-term policy of strategic autonomy for Japan, especially given the lack of a clear domestic vision for the country’s foreign policy goals.
- The United States seeks to engage its allies, including Japan, by involving them in advancing U.S. interests and by redistributing responsibility for regional security.
- The question of a peace treaty between Russia and Japan is no longer relevant: the state of war ended in 1956, diplomatic relations have long been established, and under current conditions, the situation tends to favor Russia over time.
Dmitry Kochegurov
- Many Russian analysts note that a key feature of Japan–U.S. relations under the “Trump 2.0” administration is a shift of emphasis toward economic and technological cooperation, rather than military and political coordination.
- The outcome of the U.S.–Japan summit can be regarded as a success for Takaichi, given her strong ideological and personal rapport with Trump. Both leaders share similar views on tightening immigration policy, upholding traditional values, boosting defense spending, and taking a harder line on China.
- The Taiwan question remains a potential point of tension between Trump and the Takaichi government: should a military confrontation erupt over Taiwan, Japan would find itself on the front line of a new Cold War between China and the United States.
