On February 10, 2025, the press center of the Russia Today International Media Agency (RT) hosted a roundtable discussion on “Protests in Serbia: Prospects for Overcoming the Political Crisis.”
Serbia celebrates its Statehood Day on February 15. This year, however, the holiday comes amid nationwide protests sparked by the tragedy in Novi Sad.
Experts discussed the impact of key foreign and domestic factors driving the protests, as well as the implications of U.S. sanctions targeting the country’s oil and gas sector. Participants also assessed how the political crisis could influence the Russia–Serbia dialogue and examined the likelihood of renewed instability in Kosovo.
On February 10, 2025, the press center of the Russia Today International Media Agency (RT) hosted a roundtable discussion on “Protests in Serbia: Prospects for Overcoming the Political Crisis.”
Serbia celebrates its Statehood Day on February 15. This year, however, the holiday comes amid nationwide protests sparked by the tragedy in Novi Sad.
Experts discussed the impact of key foreign and domestic factors driving the protests, as well as the implications of U.S. sanctions targeting the country’s oil and gas sector. Participants also assessed how the political crisis could influence the Russia–Serbia dialogue and examined the likelihood of renewed instability in Kosovo.
Participants
- Polina Sokolova, Research Fellow at the Section for Regional Problems and Conflicts, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences (IMEMO RAS)
- Tatyana Popadyeva, Research Fellow at the Center for Comparative Socio-Economic and Political Studies, IMEMO RAS
- Milan Lazovic, Balkans Expert and Program Manager at the Russian International Affairs Council
- Yakov Smirnov, Junior Research Fellow at the Department of Modern History of Central and South-Eastern Europe, Institute of Slavic Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences
Discussion Highlights
Milan Lazovic
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Protests have long been a part of Serbia’s political landscape, but previous demonstrations were far less intense. The current wave of protests is the largest the country has experienced in the past decade.
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The causes of the protests can be grouped into external and internal factors. The external dimension relates to what is seen as the destabilizing activities of Western NGOs in Serbia and attempts to unsettle the political situation.
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Internal factors stem from the lack of dialogue between society and the government, as well as public dissatisfaction with socio-economic conditions, including high levels of corruption.
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Serbia’s geopolitical situation is complex, as the country is surrounded by unfriendly states, most of which are NATO members.
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Regarding Kosovo, the situation continues to deteriorate, with conditions for Serbs in the province worsening. There is no guarantee that the region will not face another escalation in the near future.
Polina Sokolova
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The protests are primarily a domestic political crisis, made more complex by instability in the broader international environment.
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The movement is driven largely by students, university faculty, and other social groups, and it has deliberately kept its distance from political parties and NGO leaders.
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Protesters have put forward four main demands: full disclosure of the railway renovation documentation; prosecution of those who attacked students; an end to pressure on student participants; and a 20 percent increase in education funding.
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There is a clear divide between the government and the protesters over whether these demands can realistically be met.
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Western pressure on Serbia over Kosovo, combined with the wider Russia–West confrontation, further complicates the situation.
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Serbia is interested in progress in U.S.–Russia relations and in resolving the conflict in Ukraine, which it views as a source of regional instability.
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Many Serbian analysts describe the protests as a form of “constitutional patriotism,” with participants seeking to defend state institutions from what they see as abuses of power.
Tatyana Popadyeva
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The government largely attributes the protests to the opposition, accusing it of attempting to trigger a political upheaval. The domestic crisis is also shaped by the involvement of foreign actors, including neighboring states that have provided food assistance to the protesters.
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Students remain one of the most vulnerable groups in Serbia and face serious difficulties adjusting to current socio-economic conditions. Despite demanding academic programs, many graduates struggle with unemployment or low wages.
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January 2025 recorded the lowest level of foreign direct investment in Serbia in several years.
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Russian diplomatic activity in Serbia has increased noticeably, and Russia is appearing more frequently in the country’s media landscape.
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One of the defining features of the current protests is the extensive use of digital technologies and social media for mobilization and communication.
Yakov Smirnov
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The U.S. sanctions imposed on the Serbian oil and gas company NIS present a significant challenge, as the company plays a key role not only in Serbia but across the wider region.
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U.S. policy toward the Western Balkans has shifted in recent years. During Donald Trump’s first term, Washington made efforts to strengthen its relationship with Belgrade. Under Joe Biden, the focus of U.S. foreign policy shifted with the outbreak of the crisis in Ukraine. A new Trump administration would likely seek to reassert U.S. influence in the region.
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The United States may use sanctions against the largest energy company in Southeast Europe as a means of exerting pressure on both Moscow and Belgrade.
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The long-standing partnership between Russia and Serbia, despite its deep historical roots, requires practical reinforcement. Russian policymakers need to engage not only with political elites but also with wider segments of Serbian society to communicate their perspectives more effectively.
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There is also hope that the academic community could serve as an intermediary between political leaders and students. Historically, Serbia’s urban intelligentsia has played an active role in political life.
These discussion highlights were prepared with the help of RIAC intern Inessa Obukhovskaya.
