Over the past year politics seems to have returned to the past. But it is not clear whether it is a comeback to the Cold War time with its ideological intransigence, or the 19th century when some kindled the flames of revolutions and others sought to quench them, or to the time when people struggled not for national interests but for the triumph of true faith.
It is quite remarkable that this “countdown” is taking place mainly in the Old World – Europe and the Middle East – that used to be a source of progress for many centuries. Meanwhile, Asia, which has many more political contentions and far fewer mechanisms for resolving them, is concerned mostly with economic development and prosperity.
The rich potential of joint growth of Asian countries – from India to Japan and from China to Indonesia – is the subject of a study done by Timofei Bordachev, Anastasia Likhacheva and Zhang Xin. China’s strategy of turning from a “big state to a strong one” is discussed in Igor Denisov’s article. The author focuses on one of its projects – the Silk Road Economic Belt proposed by the Chinese president a year and a half ago. The purpose of this concept, vague as it is, is to combine the interests of economic prosperity, especially in the western provinces of the country, with a “soft” advance to Central Eurasia. Alexander Vorontsov adds yet another dimension to this picture with an insight into Seoul’s vision on how to overcome its “islandness” by launching an ambitious westward project.
Georgy Toloraya takes a broader look by trying to figure out how the BRICS, a forum where Russia and China work closely together, can be turned into a platform for establishing new principles of world order. Alexander Gabuyev studies contradictions between Russia and China within the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. He believes that Moscow should acknowledge Beijing’s economic supremacy and focus on regulatory issues so that Russia and Central Asian countries could reap maximum gains from China’s financial expansion.
Ivan Safranchuk explores Central Asia’s attitude towards various Eurasian projects of which this region is viewed as an integral part. The author concludes that the later an integration agenda is offered to countries of the region, the harder it will be for them to accept it as each of them has long been following its own course.
Stanislav Pritchin dwells on what Russia can do to attract Central Asia’s interest in the energy sector. In his opinion, the declared changes in Gazprom’s strategy of business operation in Europe should be accompanied by a revision of relations with Central Asian countries which have always been viewed as competitors. Pyotr Stegny writes about the vast opportunities opening up before Turkey as a result of Moscow’s decision to make this country its principal gas transportation partner. However, he acknowledges that it will take consistent effort and attention to strengthen Russian-Turkish ties, including in the energy sector, or natural contradictions will emerge.
Sergei Karaganov draws attention to the most pressing issue of today: why relations between Russia and Europe/West have reached such a critical point. He holds that the sides have been going in the opposite directions while pretending to pursue some common goal. There is still a chance to come together, but it will take courage to admit the differences and impartially look for points of contact. Vladimir Lukin, a Russian veteran politician and diplomat, looks over the past quarter of a century to see what was achieved in Russian foreign policy and what was missed.
There has been much discussion about Germany whose benevolent attitude towards Russia has changed dramatically over the past year. Three researchers study this change. Hans-Joachim Spanger believes that Berlin does not reject the past but simply adapts its previous Eastern policy to the new conditions. Stefan Meister, on the contrary, insists that the policy Willy Brandt proclaimed some fifty years ago has outlived itself, and there will no longer be willingness to try to “understand Russia.” Alan W. Cafruny links the drastic changes in Germany’s policy to the deep crisis of the European integration process. He thinks that different scenarios are possible, but German policies are in for a major shakeup.
Martin Gilman dwells on the Russian economic crisis. While drawing parallels with the 1998 crunch, he concludes that the current situation is not as dramatic. Today the Russian economy is suffering not so much from the sanctions or falling oil prices as from the fact that structural reforms have been suspended for a long time. Vladimir Yevtushenkov suggests using the current situation for boosting import substitution but warns against self-isolation as autarky is the road to nowhere in the modern world.
Our authors write about the diversity of social factors and how they impact political processes and life of societies. Veronika Kostenko, Pavel Kuzmichev and Eduard Ponarin share interesting data on the way democracy is understood in the Arab World; it appears the understanding is very different from that in the West. Andrei Korobkov addresses the issue of migration and compares it with that in Russia and the rest of the world.
In our next issue we will continue to analyze how the rapidly changing environment around Russia affects its perception of the world and its own interests in it.
Source: "Russia in Global Affairs" Journal
