Maduro & Co.

All you need to know about the start of negotiations between Nicolas Maduro and Venezuelan opposition.

On October 30, the President of Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, and the opposition representatives (Democratic Unity Roundtable, MUD) had a face-to-face meeting to discuss the opportunity for fully fledged negotiations on the resolution of the harshest political crisis that wrapped the country and that stems from the long-term confrontation they have had. In order to understand the course of negotiations, there are at least three factors to consider.

REUTERS/Marco Bello

Maduro meeting with opposition, 30 October 2016

Credibility  The idea of arranging negotiations to resolve the long-term crisis is not at all new. N. Maduro has been promoting it for a long time, and even Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), as well as several Latin-American and Spanish politicians, were mediating its implementation. Big hopes were particularly put on the former Prime Minister of Spain, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, a committed leftist, but still a supporter of European democratic culture. These hopes failed, and the Venezuelan opposition eventually started treating the Spanish with suspicion they had for the potential dialogue partner. The situation was saved by the Holy See, that decided to regulate the Venezuelan crisis in the strongest possible terms, and came out to be the only credible institution for both sides. Pope Francis managed to have a way with both the «chavists» and the opposition, bringing the opposing sides to the conference table (the Sunday meeting was attended by the Pope’s representatives). This being a good example of the Catholic church enormous influence in the region.

Split Within The negotiations, as it often happens, split both parties within. N. Maduro supporters’ simmering controversy is getting harsh. Some fictional Venezuelan internal political «hawks» are not willing to conduct a dialogue with the opponents and to discuss further possible preliminary elections, which will  highly likely end up with the Bolivarian elite. The opposition is also far from struggling for power at this important stage as a united front. Democratic Unity Roundtable Secretary General Jesús Torrealba is in favour of the negotiations, though it is not easy for him to speak for all the conglomeration affiliated with opposition movements.

For example, one of the opposition leaders, Henrique Capriles, is very sceptic about the negotiations, saying «Maduro's government is the devil capable of everything» that cannot be relied on. His Justice First (Primero Justicia) party fellows claim that the government, being weak and not controlling the situation, wants negotiations to be performed and that means the pressure can be carried on. They do not exclude the possibility for a dialogue, though it is emphasised that they only do it out of deference to Vatican, who they give their vote of trust.

Step by Step, Concession by Concession To perform a meaningful dialogue both sides need to take certain measures. This week has been a good start for this process: the government released six political prisoners while the opposition cancelled a large-scale march to the Presidential Miraflores Palace on November 3 and put on hold the investigation of Maduro’s presidency, that had been initiated in Venezuelan Parliament by the opposition. These measures are definitely insufficient to forge a bond of trust, though some time ago these concessions could be viewed as science-political-fiction.

November 11 is the day when a new meeting will take place and both Nicolas Maduro and MUD have to follow the recommendations of Pope Francis who urged to be reserved and conscious of the meaning this dialogue has for Venezuelan citizens. The results of the conflict resolution are forthcoming. ​​​​​​​