Refugee Flow to EU through the Balkans reduces by more than 83% in 2016

Day Figure

Author: Andrey Kortunov, Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council.

According to the recent statistics issued by Frontex, 2016 saw a steep change in intensity and structure of Europe-bound migration flows.

In 2016, 364,000 migrants and refugees arrived in Europe through Mediterranean sea, which is 3 times less compared to 2015. The most notable change is seen on Eastern Mediterranean route through Turkey to Greece, Bulgaria and Cyprus. This route is mainly used by Syrian, Afghan and Iraqi refugees. In 2015, 885,000 migrants arrived in Europe via this route, while in 2016 – 182,000.

The Western Balkan route was also partly blocked. Through land and sea borders between Bulgaria and Turkey, Greece and Turkey and Western Balkans, citizens of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Algeria pave their way to Hungary, Austria, etc. While in 2015 764, 000 people used this route, in 2016 this number reduced to 123, 000. That said the popularity of Central Mediterranean route from Libya to Italy did augment. This route is popular among the citizens of Northern and West Africa, as well as those from Horn of Africa countries. 154, 000 migrants arrived in Europe via this route in 2015, while in 2016 – 181, 000.

Overall Illegal migration statistics does look promising. 2015 saw 1, 820, 000 cases of illegal EU border crossing, while only 504, 000 cases were fixed in 2016. Proceeding from statistics, it can be stated that migration pressure on Europe exercised by Middle East is reducing steadily (largely owing to EU-Turkey agreement signed in March, 2016). Migratory pressure on African part is slowly increasing. It should be noted that the share of refugees is reducing in migratory flows, while that of economic migrants is growing.

Data

— Frontex publishes Risk Analysis for 2016

— Fewer migrants at EU borders in 2016