Lithuania to Force Tension in Eastern Europe

On October 23, 2016, Lithuania held the second round of parliamentary elections. Now the political line-up is finally clear, and it will not work in favor of regional security promotion in the Eastern Europe.

On the one hand, two backbone parties did not get much support - one of the biggest factions in the post-soviet history of the Lithuanian Seimas (56 mandates out of 141) will consist of the Peasants and Greens Union (LVZS), that used to have only 1 mandate in the previous parliament and managed to accumulate protest voters. On the other hand, considering the opposition of 2 Lithuanian core political forces, a more moderate Social Democratic Party (LSDP), with 17 mandates gives a place to the conservative party, the Homeland Union-Lithuanian Christian Democrats (TS-LKD), supporters of aggressive diplomacy, espionage, and ultra-liberal socio-economic policy with 31 seats after two rounds of elections.

AP

At this point the negotiations on creating coalition are still in process. Theoretically there are several options, even keeping LSDP in the government and TS-LKD in the opposition (the union of LVZS and social democrats provides a minimum majority in Seimas). Though the quiet support of the conservatives from the President of the country D. Grybauskaite and them being ranked second in the election count in favor of LVZS and TS-LKD coalition. What does this line-up mean for the situation in the region?

Having gained certain leverage on the President D. Grybauskaite, conservative and social-democratic parties had practically set the tone for Lithuanian foreign policy under the previous government. And this fact had its own consequences for the domestic policy - the country budgets included many of the official opposition priority projects, as strange as it sounds, the most important being the increase of military expenses to the disadvantage of social programs. Social democrats and their leader Algirdas Butkevicius paid a price for this exceeding flexibility: the party lost 21 seats in Seimas, while their leader and prime-minister in office since 2012 could not win the election even in his single member electoral district. Now this political force cannot affect any processes even being opposition which actually lets  the conservatives off the leash. By all means, Peasants and Greens holding the office will formally be managing partners in coalition, though the experience and the presidential support of the TS-LKD will steamroll both social democrats and LVZS - at least they have 2.5 years of the remaining D. Grybauskaite’s office for that.

Such political line-up in Vilnius implies the growth of tension in a complicated international situation in the region as it is: Survival Guidebook Amid Russian «Aggression» is now being published and republished, Lithuanian State Security Department made a hotline «for citizens to report anyone they suspect of being a spy», and 900 American troops are being located at the borderline of Lithuania and Poland in order to protect the narrow Suwalki gap (about 100 km wide) which represents the Baltic states' only border with the rest of NATO. In the future these trends are not only expected to persist but also develop further.

For Belarus the situation brings escalation of informational and diplomatic pressure from Vilnius regarding the construction of Ostrovetskaya Atomic Power Station. And it will not be limited to criticism in mass media and information attacks about construction site «accidents» - Vilnius will continue its attempts to boycott the purchase of Belarus energy in the region. The only thing that can prevent Lithuanian-Belarus relations from diplomatic confrontation are the ambitions of Minsk to get on track with EU and not to fight with Vilnius, in particular, who is aware of these ambitions and is effectively operating them to the detriment of Belarus interests.

Conservatives’ return to office means a new round of tensions between Warsaw and Vilnius on the Polish minorities issue in Lithuania. In the time of previous Seimas the law on national minorities did not pass, the issue having been discussed since 2012, and can be now put off till the next election as well as the liberalization of Non-Lithuanian names passport spelling, bilingual signs, and generally the proper attitude towards Non-Lithuanians in the country. Poland's ruling Law and Justice conservative party (PiS) who joined the office in 2015 are not going to stonewall the incident even in order to please geopolitical interests of NATO.

The new Lithuanian government is not likely to have a great influence on Russian-Lithuanian relations. As a result of Lithuanian President’s policy there have been practically no contacts since the previous government. What can be expected though is strong accusations towards Moscow, Seimas members and ministers’ offensive epithets about the Eastern neighbor, biggest possible ban of Russian media, increase in spy scandals, cyber attacks, and EU attempts to close any available space for anything of Russian origin - from gas to experts.

If Vilnius conservatives manage to implement their foreign policy doctrine, Lithuania will find itself in a circle enemies’ trap.  And the situation like that will not promote security in the region.