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Alexander Yermakov

Research Fellow at the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations under the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIAC expert

It would seem that there is no end in sight to the war on terrorist organizations in Iraq and Syria. On the contrary, matters seem to be getting worse, with flagships of the French and Royal Navies being deployed to the Middle East simultaneously, and the expected date of the Russian aircraft carrier CV Admiral Kuznetsov starting its first military campaign drawing ever closer. 

 

On the morning of Monday, September 19, the United Kingdom’s HMS Ocean Landing Platform Helicopter set sail from Plymouth to the Mediterranean as part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (Maritime) (JEF(M)), along with the Albion-class HMS Bulwark assault ship and support vessels. HMS Ocean and HMS Bulwark are two of the Royal Navy’s newest ships, commissioned in 1998 and 2001, respectively.

 

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HMS Ocean

 

HMS Ocean became the United Kingdom’s largest battle ship following the decommissioning of the last Invincible­-class aircraft carrier, and will remain so until the new Queen Elizabeth­-class aircraft carrier enters service. In combat conditions, HMS Ocean is designed primarily to carry out the functions of a command and control ship and a carrier for attack and transport helicopters (and, accordingly, for an assault force). The ship carried out such a role in the Iraq War, as well as during operations in Libya. We know that this time, in addition to air squadrons, the ship will carry the 42 Commando Royal Marines, which is clearly intended to be involved in special operations in Iraq at the very least, but possibly in Syria as well. The involvement of the 662 Squadron Army Air Corps in the Apache helicopter attacks on ISIS positions is particularly intriguing. What is more, HMS Ocean will take over from the U.S. aircraft carriers when the “shift” changes as the flagship of the Combined Task Force 50, a naval group of western coalition forces in the Persian Gulf. The mission is expected to last until March 2017.

 

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Charles de Gaulle carrier

 

France’s Charles de Gaulle carrier, which set sail from Toulon on the evening of September 19, will be carrying out its third sortie of the war against ISIS: its first mission took place in February–April 2015, followed by its second mission in November 2015–March 2016, where it was the flagship of Combined Task Force 50 for most of that period. The French force deployed to the Persian Gulf (which will likely carry out strikes on targets in Syria from the eastern Mediterranean along the way) includes the frigate Cassard and support vessels, with a FREMM-class frigate likely to join the ships later. The French fleet is joined by the German Augsburg frigate and the USS Ross destroyer. However, these ships will mainly be carrying out exercises, with the bulk of the work being carried out by the Rafale carrier-bornemultirole fighter aircraft. One of the key targets of the French strikes is expected to be the ISIS’s Iraqi capital of Mosul. The first strikes of the carrier-based aircraft are set to take place in late September. The actual duration of the mission is not known, but it will last until the end of the year at least.

 

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Russian aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov

 

The operation against ISIS in many respects is used by the Allied navies as large-scale exercises for interoperability training. The fact the Russian Navy is so close, in addition to the periodic conflicts with the Iranians, will motivate the Allied forces to be particularly alert. However, this time it would seem that they are planning to test the battle capabilities of their carrier-based aircraft and demonstrate their power; it will be the first time that a Russian aircraft carrier will be involved in battle – 40 years after the first Soviet aircraft carrier became operational. The reports over the summer that the Admiral Kuznetsov would be deployed in Syria in the autumn and winter of 2016 were so frequent that they cannot be ignored. This, in addition to the circumstantial evidence that suggests Su-33 carrier-based fighters were being equipped with sighting systems for increased bombing efficiency. Although the number of pilots to have completed re-training for the new MiG-29K/KUB multipurpose carrier-based fighter (which can be used effectively against ground targets, including guided weapons) is still small, it is unlikely that more than four such aircraft will be deployed during the operation. In addition, while the Russian Air Force will probably not be able to upgrade its Su-33 fleet in time, their carrier-based jets will nevertheless go to war.  

 

Why is this important? Of course, in military terms, the Russian forces in Syria are unlikely to increase dramatically (although the military will try to carry out a few show-operations for the media’s sake), and it has always been possible to send an additional aircraft squadron to Khmeimim Air Base, but in terms of image, it will play an important role. The Russian Navy has already demonstrated the possibility of carrying out strikes using cruise missiles, now it has to show its superiority in carrier-based fighters as well. And the most important thing here is to obtain experience in employing the aircraft carrier and its air wing in real combat. The Admiral Kuznetsov is expected to undergo a long-overdue overhaul and modernization once the military operation is complete. Until then, it will be very important to gather comments and suggestions for the improvements in a real combat situation, rather than during infrequent military exercises. There will also be food for thought with regard to the construction of a brand new Russian aircraft carrier.

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