On May 11, 2021, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Korea Foundation (KF) held the second round table “The Korean Peninsula: State of Affairs and Denuclearization Prospects. Room for Collaboration” as part of the 2021 Next Generation Policy Experts Network joint project aiming to facilitate collaboration between the Russian and Korean academic circles.
The discussion dealt with military and political aspects of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, particularly stressing the remaining security dilemma and the need for reciprocity in the Seoul – Pyongyang dialogue, as well as on socioeconomic and cultural issues, supporting or impeding the normalization of the situation in the region.
On May 11, 2021, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the Korea Foundation (KF) held the second round table “The Korean Peninsula: State of Affairs and Denuclearization Prospects. Room for Collaboration” as part of the 2021 Next Generation Policy Experts Network joint project aiming to facilitate collaboration between the Russian and Korean academic circles.
The discussion dealt with military and political aspects of the situation on the Korean Peninsula, particularly stressing the remaining security dilemma and the need for reciprocity in the Seoul – Pyongyang dialogue, as well as on socioeconomic and cultural issues, supporting or impeding the normalization of the situation in the region.
Dmitry Stefanovich, Research Fellow at the Center for International Security, Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations of RAS; Hyojong Son, Associate Research Fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses; Anna Polenova, Research Fellow at the Center for Korean Studies, RAS Institute of Far Eastern Studies, and Sung Kyung Kim, Associate Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, shared their views at the roundtable. Alexander Korolev, Research Fellow at the Centre for Comprehensive European and International Studies, Higher School of Economics, moderated the discussion.
The next round table of the series is scheduled for June 2021. Experts will discuss the Russia – South Korea bilateral relations.
Summary of the Discussion
Dmitry Stefanovich
Nuclear weapons still serve as a backbone for the prevention of a large-scale war regionally and globally. The Russian position on disarmament on the Peninsula is similar to that on the global scale.
The denuclearization process is not the first step, but the ultimate goal in resolving the situation on the Korean Peninsula, so in order to launch it the conditions must be right. Therefore, creating them is a priority for the parties involved.
It should be kept in mind that nuclear weapons are never obtained for the sake of simply having them, but are rather an outcome of the existing threat perceptions. When the country has concerns about its existence and intentions of other actors, it invests in what it considers necessary for its survival, strategic weapons included, even though by investing in different capabilities countries create new perceived threats.
It is crucial for the international community to find instruments to keep the situation manageable in order to prevent any form of war on the Korean Peninsula, be it nuclear or conventional. Today’s status quo is not the worst-case scenario.
Although North Korea is usually criticized for enhancing its nuclear arsenal, the nuclear arms race in Asia was actually provoked by South Korea that feared North Korean conventional superiority. Similarly, during the Cold War NATO and the US used to rely on nuclear weapons due to the perceived threat posed by the USSR, whereas now the situation has reversed and Russia relies on its nuclear arsenal as a shield to protect itself from the conventional capabilities of the West.
Today there are many factors, such as the increasing confrontation between China and the U.S. as well as arms control issues between Russia and the US, influencing the regional dynamics. Japan and South Korea naturally have a very distinct impact on the peninsula. US missile defense weapons in the Asia Pacific are no positive addition to the regional equation as well.
Russia and regional powers should first engage in proper discussions, if not based on trust then at least providing ground for the frank exchange of opinions. Secondly, non-nuclear deterrence should become a subject for detailed consideration by all parties involved.
Hyojong Son
The COVID-19 pandemic has inflicted a lot of suffering overall, being especially difficult to live through for North Korea. Now the time is ripe for the recalibration of North Korean policies and the government is facing a test of how it can handle both economic crisis domestically and strategic response to a new US policy towards the country internationally. This requires a careful assessment of opportunities and threats in the political, economic and social realm.
The first challenge is to overcome the pandemic repercussions: economic problems in operating healthcare system, limitations of the self-reliance policy, fatigue from the prolonged crisis and market expansion constraints. Here the government is likely to pursue a paralleled policy of enhancing its military arsenal while fixing the emerging identity gap amidst generations and covering for the weaknesses of its economic policy.
The second challenge is dealing with the external security environment, implying the growing pressure from the US, reduced help from China and visible lack of NGOs’ assistance in overcoming the pandemic.
Economic and social variables are gaining influence for the government. Therefore the authorities need visible outcomes of the dialogue with the US and South Korea in terms of security assurance and economic possibilities. Thus, North Korea is not expected to engage in negotiations, as there are no possible gains on the horizon.
North Korea is trying to prevent the rupture in the economic and social aspects, inflicted by the prolonged lockdown and natural floods seriously affecting agriculture. If the government continues its crackdown on the market forces and alleged external influence, this heavy policy will only increase fatigue from the situation.
South Korea needs both a sustainable policy towards North Korea, preserving its own strategic interests and aimed at denuclearization as an ultimate goal, and gradual confidence-building in bilateral relations.
Anna Polenova
The problem of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula has both regional and global dimensions as Russian, Chinese and American interests are involved in the matter. It is also a part of a broader topic of global non-proliferation and disarmament.
It is unlikely that North Korea will give up on its nuclear weapons. Although the NPT is an important part of the global non-proliferation regime system, it also has flaws that should eventually be addressed.
The new administration in the US and the ongoing сoronavirus pandemic are the main novelties for the regional dynamics.
Since nuclear proliferation in North Korea is a classic security dilemma reflection, confidence-building is necessary to address it. The most useful way to do it is to build a portfolio of common projects in the social, cultural and humanitarian realm. 2020 was a challenging year for North Korea as it also faced natural disasters. Vaccine diplomacy has not been effective as every issue tends to become politicized while appearing on the agenda of any negotiations with North Korea.
It could be more effective for South Korea and North Korea to turn to case-by-case participation in common projects, building confidence between them. It may help to correct the essentially flawed sanctions regime logic, influencing not the leadership, but the population in North Korea.
Sung Kyung Kim
The current pandemic has proved to be the worst one in human history, leading, apart from numerable social and economic effects, to changes in the existing world order, shifting the focus of many countries inward. The gap between the rich and the poor has widened with North Korea falling into the latter category.
In North Korea humanitarian situation is already catastrophic and seems to be deteriorating further, affecting the industrial complex and economy overall. The DPRK was the first country to close its borders, which was especially meaningful in terms of its cooperation with China as bilateral trade has declined.
Another facet to the problem is a system of sanctions, especially on the side of the US and its allies. Although they are not intended to impede humanitarian aid in the forms of medical supplies, nutrition, sanitation, etc., they do have this effect amidst the pandemic.
Floods in 2020 seriously worsened the overall situation in the country.
North Korean leadership is facing two crises at the same time: the spread of coronavirus and extensive flood damage. It is thus highly likely that the status quo will be maintained in the region, as these circumstances do not allow for further moves.
