Ivan Timofeev
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Ivan Timofeev has been a Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) since 2011. RIAC member since 2016. He is responsible for the intellectual performance of RIAC, managing its programs and projects. His personal background at RIAC includes working with Russian and foreign diplomats, governmental officials, experts, businessmen and NGO-leaders regarding Russia’s foreign policy and public diplomacy.
Since 2015 he also heads a “Euro-Atlantic Security” program at Valdai Discussion Club.
Before joining RIAC, Dr. Timofeev was the Head of Analytical Monitoring Center and Associate Professor at MGIMO-University (2009–2011). He was awarded a doctoral degree in Political Science at MGIMO in 2006. He has a Master of Arts in Society and Politics (Lancaster University and Central European University, 2003) and a B.A. in Sociology (Saint-Petersburg State University, 2002).
Dr. Timofeev is an author and co-author of more than 80 publications, issued in Russian and foreign academic press. He is a member of editorial board at the “Comparative Politics” – an academic journal on foreign policy and political science. In 2013 Dr. Timofeev was elected as a Professor of the Academy for Military Science.
Reports
CSIS and RIAC Report
Report No. 40/2018
This report is based on the results of discussions held by the EU–Russia Expert Network in 2017 and 2018.
RIAC Report No. 37/2018
A Forecasting Report
RIAC Report #31 / 2017
RIAC and CSR Report
The ELN-RIAC Special Report
Report No. 24/2016
Working Papers
RIAC and Valdai Club Working Paper
Working Paper #XVIII / 2014
Policy Briefs
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
RIAC Policy Brief #20, January 2019
Articles
The most important task for the diplomacy of Washington and Beijing will be the fight for major players
Political crises and controversies regarding a number of issues hardly set aside the need to build trust on specific issues, without mentoring, arrogance and sarcasm on either side
The worst scenario for the United States is the consolidated actions of Moscow and Beijing on military-technical cooperation with Iran on the basis of Resolution 2231
Serious political crisis around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program became the most significant event in recent times
it is not uncommon for the United States to impose sanctions on its own allies and even American companies
By pushing the Chinese elite from the global space, the Americans are diluting their influence over China
One of the notable events in July was the imposition by Britain of restrictions on a number of Russian and foreign officials in the area of human rights. This was London’s first independent programme…
Are We in for Epidemics of Sanctions?
The problem of sanctions cannot be eliminated without fundamental changes to the global financial system
The near future will show their reliability or, conversely, fragility in the face of the new competition of large players
Donald Trumps order, apparently, is connected with the “Afghan dossier” of the ICC
One can’t underestimate the efforts of the congressmen
The speed of the confrontation is accelerating, and it will be extremely difficult to soften its inertia
Laying the blame on the WHO, China or Russia will not solve the problems of US health care and is unlikely to help in the fight against the disease
Individual exemptions will have no effect without significant systemic changes introduced at least for the period of the pandemic
In a worst-case scenario, the Americans’ excessive use of sanctions and other measures for political purposes will make anarchy an attractive means to preserve sovereignty
Threats for Russia: From the Past to the Future
Modern man will have to face ultramodern and pre-modern structures simultaneously
The problem with the Munich Conference report is that it completely ignores the motivation of non-Western countries in acting in one way or another. In essence, it reduces the problem to a political…
The risk of sanctions will persist regardless of success in resolving the trade war
The US Department of State campaigning is doing more harm to the US-led globalization efforts in the field of ICT than all the hackers and cyber spies put together
Time is working for Washington. Iran also has trump cards
The key question is, would these sanctions really work and would Europeans abide by the U.S. restrictions?
Brussels, Beijing, Moscow and other capitals are increasingly unhappy about the US free-wheeling
Russia and the US are becoming toxic to each other
Problems in relations between Russia and the West, as well as their solutions, are hardly worth looking for through the lens of generational transitions
Containing China has become an agenda in its own right for the United States, increasing the risk of sanctions and China’s retaliation
If “agents” are replacing “structures” in modern international relations, maybe it is worth changing the analytical lens through which we look at “agents,” especially an unconventional agent like…
“Sanction paradox”: restrictions against allies are more effective than restrictions against rivals. So far, this paradox is working with respect to Turkey
Evidence from 205 Cases of the U.S. Government Enforcement Actions against Business
Macron can achieve tactical, albeit quite tangible, successes in its policy on Russia and Iran
The resignation of US ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman is a good occasion to take stock of one of the most difficult periods of Russia-US relations
The measures hardly pose any serious threat to Russia
The problem common to the Russian and US (Western) approaches is that they describe the past and may prove of little use for describing the present and the future
The new sanctions war against Iran has been unleashed, and there is no way of stopping it
The next round of sanctions may disrupt the dialogue on arms control, which is of interest to the United States
Without a clear explanation of the reasons for the detention of the vessel by the EU, Tehran’s claims remain natural
For the “hawks”, the current situation is objectively more beneficial. During a crisis, it is much easier to look for threats than opportunities
The first U.S.-Russia joint view on how to deal with the interference problem
Special Report for SPIEF-2019
Huawei will probably try to resolve the issue with the U.S. authorities itself. The price will be very high, but, at the end of the day, Huawei is a business and not a state
The commonality of the political positions of the United States and the EU will ensure the status quo
Instead of deterrence, such measures may only trigger escalation
The conclusion of the Mueller investigation presents certain opportunities for U.S.–Russia Relations
The overall attitude toward Russia is becoming increasingly tough and uncompromising, leaving little space for meaningful dialogue
The sanctions will be extended regardless of who sits in the White House
The PDVSA case raises important questions concerning Russian banks’ strategy regarding U.S. sanctions
The new sanctions bill enhances the sanction risks for them but will do little to change the situation in a fundamental way
The conclusion is clear: to preserve the liberal world order by all means, to rationalize United States policy, and to isolate Russia and China or make them return to their usual roles. But a return…
Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Timofeev on the fallout from the January sanctions
Four years under pressure
The sanctions seriously devalue the idea of a compromise on the islands in exchange for investment and a new level of relations
The main political question is how long the key players will accept the situation where economic globalization is used in the political interests of the leading power and the main currency of…
The practice of US regulators punishing specific companies for violating sanctions is of great interest
Investors are now waiting for November when the Americans are to declare more sanctions over the chemical incidents (Syria and Skripal)
Given the current realities, Russia is a good fit for devil’s role
The EU is a more reliable partner for Moscow in addressing many international issues than the United States
The New Round of U.S. Sanctions
Washington’s increased radicalism is something that gives Russian diplomacy even more room to maneuver
The arrest of Russian national Maria Butina in Washington is a significant blow for Russia–U.S. relations
Arms control and dialogue on strategic stability are likely to become the summit’s central topic
The policies of opposing US and EU sanctions should be clearly differentiated
It is impossible to return to the glorious past. The illusion that it is possible is depriving us of our future
There are also ‘icons’ among the target countries that have more or less adapted to life under long-term sanctions rather than abandoning policies. Iran, one such target country, has unparalleled…
How can Moscow respond to a possible US strike on Syria?
It is quite probable that Russia will stop offering itself as a Western partner and will step aside and deal with problems inside and near its borders
Washington is resolved to damaging Russia under Putin as much as it can. But Russia doesn't have to take a hard line
5 reasons Americans will fail to induce Russia’s policy change
Liberal slogans promoting freedom and progress have turned into a powerful tool of soft power determining America’s moral leadership
There will be at least seven reports submitted next year, each of which will most likely provide a pretext for the further alienation of Russia and the United States from each other
A smart and effective system of governance is becoming a key factor of Russia’s security
It is time for us to quit constantly complaining about the treachery of the West, and stop dwelling on who cheated us and how in the 1990s
Russia could become an equal co-author of a new security system in the Baltic region and beyond
How likely is the escalation of US sanctions?
Valdai Discussion Club Report
Russia should be ready for long and meticulous work in upholding its interests in international agencies and institutions.
Sanctions leave Russia the only alternative — to accept the US as a strategic and key challenge to its security
The biggest threat today is an uncontrolled and rapid arms race that matches or outpaces the political rhetoric
OSCE member countries — the most powerful military nations — are hard put to keep the growing terrorist pressure in check. Why is that happening?
Against the European background, Russian identity today looks completely stable
The chemical incident in Idlib brought to nothing all the last months' efforts, aimed to normalize the situation in Syria
The world will become increasingly interconnected, not only in terms of trade, economics, and information, but also in terms of threats. That would force Russia to solve its dilemmas in close…
The Baltic Scenarios
Russia in this new strategy is an opponent to the European Union on a number of fundamental issues
The tragedy for Russia and the collective West is that they continue to fight the wars of the past against one another, while underestimating the ideological strength of radical Islam
It is necessary to realize who makes decisions and how
A review of the report "Relations with Russia: Searching for a Way out of the Political Deadlock"
Russia in Eurasia: SWOT Analysis
Syria and especially Ukraine appear to be inflection points in the trajectory of Russian foreign policy
Experts at the GLOBSEC 2015 conference are concerned that the crumbling architecture of Euro-Atlantic security post-Ukraine is pushing nuclear conflict to the fore
An open letter from Ivan Timofeev to his American counterpart Robert E. Berls Jr.
Shuttle diplomacy exercised by European leaders gives us a phantom of a chance that we must not overlook
Without values and ideological guidelines, any pragmatic activity carried out by a country resembles “rats in the garbage”
Applying the “predator-prey” model to the system of international relations
The Link Between the Sochi Olympics and Russian Foreign Policy
The paper was presented at the Conference “The Development of Russian Far East and Search for a New Paradigm for Regional Cooperation in Northeast Asia”
Economic relations should top the relationship's list of priorities
Bratislava Global Security Forum GLOBSEC 2013
In Russia and the United States there is a shift of generations
Interviews
The modern world is again in the grip of an age-old anarchy that cultivates monsters as the only way to survive
American media reported that RIAC had attempted to set up a meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin during the U.S. election campaign.
Member Comments
PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club
PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club
PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club
PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club
PhD in Political Science, RIAC Director of Programs, RIAC Member, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club
News
Comments on the article published by The Washington Post concerning contacts between a member of Donald Trump’s campaign headquarters and the RIAC
Longreads
A Forecasting Report. Summary
Poll conducted
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In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements 33 (31%) U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity 30 (28%) U.S. wants to dissolve Russia 24 (22%) U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China 21 (19%)
Alfredo Toro Hardy
Leonid Leonid Grigoryev, Adrian Pabst
