Ivan Timofeev

Report 65/2021

EUREN Report 2

RIAC and CSIS Joint Report

CSIS and RIAC Report

Report No. 40/2018

This report is based on the results of discussions held by the EU–Russia Expert Network in 2017 and 2018.

RIAC Report No. 37/2018

A Forecasting Report

RIAC Report #31 / 2017

RIAC and CSR Report

The ELN-RIAC Special Report

Report No. 24/2016

RIAC and Valdai Club Working Paper

Working Paper #XVIII / 2014

Policy Brief #27 / 2020

RIAC Policy Brief #20, January 2019

Restrictive measures against the Taliban now affect the country as a whole

No matter how the modern world order “crumbles”, the dimensions of the modern world cannot be reduced to mere security issues

The effect of US sanctions will be much stronger in comparison with the restrictive measures of the EU and other countries

The revision of the sanctions policy by the new administration cannot be called a revolution. The institutional arrangement will remain unchanged

In terms of urbanisation and lifestyle, late Soviet and post-Soviet #Russia were and are a Western society with all its attendant problems

What if the sides cross the “red lines” and the warning shots, for one reason or another, take a toll in human life?

The EU has its own sanctions agenda, resorting to restrictive measures far more often than all other countries and international organizations, except for the U.S.

US-China relations are unlikely to develop into an open conflict in the foreseeable future because the price would be too high for both sides

Russia and the United States are approaching the summit in strategic confrontation mode

New sanctions may turn out to be even more serious than the restrictive measures introduced last year in response to the situation around the presidential elections

The new US sanctions are still fraught with uncertainty. The key question is whether the United States is imposing restrictions on Russian sovereign debt obligations

The European Parliament resolution did not cause any fluctuations of the ruble or Russian blue chips. Why did this happen and should the resolution be taken seriously?

Investors have again started talking about "geopolitical risk"

Moscow believes that for JCPOA talks to be successful, Washington and Tehran must synchronise their concessions: the former unfreezes Iranian assets and lifts sanctions, the latter is gradually…

The main priority remains the development of the EU’s own sanctions policy

What does the EU sanctions policy actually look like? How often does the EU impose sanctions in comparison with other players? Who are they against?

As long as the nation-state remains a key player in the international arena, even targeted sanctions will affect state interests

Russia and the EU have ceased to experiment with mutual illusions

Russia has accumulated a number of “toxic assets”, which could potentially become a reason for new sanctions

Strategically, Washington risks losing the ability to influence the PRC through the American model of globalisation and stands to get a powerful adversary and competitor in the future. If earlier it…

Joseph Biden is rare among the presidents-elect of the past few decades in that he has failed to inspire false hopes and expectations in Moscow

National security interests will increasingly influence the competition between technology platforms in a wide variety of areas

The financial sector is under special risk

Three key risks for Russia

The most important task for the diplomacy of Washington and Beijing will be the fight for major players

Political crises and controversies regarding a number of issues hardly set aside the need to build trust on specific issues, without mentoring, arrogance and sarcasm on either side

The worst scenario for the United States is the consolidated actions of Moscow and Beijing on military-technical cooperation with Iran on the basis of Resolution 2231

Serious political crisis around the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program became the most significant event in recent times

it is not uncommon for the United States to impose sanctions on its own allies and even American companies

By pushing the Chinese elite from the global space, the Americans are diluting their influence over China

One of the notable events in July was the imposition by Britain of restrictions on a number of Russian and foreign officials in the area of human rights. This was London’s first independent programme…

Are We in for Epidemics of Sanctions?

The problem of sanctions cannot be eliminated without fundamental changes to the global financial system

The near future will show their reliability or, conversely, fragility in the face of the new competition of large players

Donald Trumps order, apparently, is connected with the “Afghan dossier” of the ICC

One can’t underestimate the efforts of the congressmen

The speed of the confrontation is accelerating, and it will be extremely difficult to soften its inertia

Laying the blame on the WHO, China or Russia will not solve the problems of US health care and is unlikely to help in the fight against the disease

Individual exemptions will have no effect without significant systemic changes introduced at least for the period of the pandemic

In a worst-case scenario, the Americans’ excessive use of sanctions and other measures for political purposes will make anarchy an attractive means to preserve sovereignty

Threats for Russia: From the Past to the Future

Modern man will have to face ultramodern and pre-modern structures simultaneously

The problem with the Munich Conference report is that it completely ignores the motivation of non-Western countries in acting in one way or another. In essence, it reduces the problem to a political…

The risk of sanctions will persist regardless of success in resolving the trade war

The US Department of State campaigning is doing more harm to the US-led globalization efforts in the field of ICT than all the hackers and cyber spies put together

Time is working for Washington. Iran also has trump cards

The key question is, would these sanctions really work and would Europeans abide by the U.S. restrictions?

Brussels, Beijing, Moscow and other capitals are increasingly unhappy about the US free-wheeling

Russia and the US are becoming toxic to each other

Problems in relations between Russia and the West, as well as their solutions, are hardly worth looking for through the lens of generational transitions

Containing China has become an agenda in its own right for the United States, increasing the risk of sanctions and China’s retaliation

If “agents” are replacing “structures” in modern international relations, maybe it is worth changing the analytical lens through which we look at “agents,” especially an unconventional agent like…

“Sanction paradox”: restrictions against allies are more effective than restrictions against rivals. So far, this paradox is working with respect to Turkey

Evidence from 205 Cases of the U.S. Government Enforcement Actions against Business

Macron can achieve tactical, albeit quite tangible, successes in its policy on Russia and Iran

The resignation of US ambassador to Russia Jon Huntsman is a good occasion to take stock of one of the most difficult periods of Russia-US relations

The measures hardly pose any serious threat to Russia

The problem common to the Russian and US (Western) approaches is that they describe the past and may prove of little use for describing the present and the future

The new sanctions war against Iran has been unleashed, and there is no way of stopping it

The next round of sanctions may disrupt the dialogue on arms control, which is of interest to the United States

Without a clear explanation of the reasons for the detention of the vessel by the EU, Tehran’s claims remain natural

For the “hawks”, the current situation is objectively more beneficial. During a crisis, it is much easier to look for threats than opportunities

The first U.S.-Russia joint view on how to deal with the interference problem

Special Report for SPIEF-2019

Huawei will probably try to resolve the issue with the U.S. authorities itself. The price will be very high, but, at the end of the day, Huawei is a business and not a state

The commonality of the political positions of the United States and the EU will ensure the status quo

Instead of deterrence, such measures may only trigger escalation

The conclusion of the Mueller investigation presents certain opportunities for U.S.–Russia Relations

The overall attitude toward Russia is becoming increasingly tough and uncompromising, leaving little space for meaningful dialogue

The sanctions will be extended regardless of who sits in the White House

The PDVSA case raises important questions concerning Russian banks’ strategy regarding U.S. sanctions

The new sanctions bill enhances the sanction risks for them but will do little to change the situation in a fundamental way

The conclusion is clear: to preserve the liberal world order by all means, to rationalize United States policy, and to isolate Russia and China or make them return to their usual roles. But a return…

Director of Programs at the Russian International Affairs Council Ivan Timofeev on the fallout from the January sanctions

Four years under pressure

The sanctions seriously devalue the idea of a compromise on the islands in exchange for investment and a new level of relations

The main political question is how long the key players will accept the situation where economic globalization is used in the political interests of the leading power and the main currency of…

The practice of US regulators punishing specific companies for violating sanctions is of great interest

Investors are now waiting for November when the Americans are to declare more sanctions over the chemical incidents (Syria and Skripal)

Given the current realities, Russia is a good fit for devil’s role  

The EU is a more reliable partner for Moscow in addressing many international issues than the United States

The New Round of U.S. Sanctions

Washington’s increased radicalism is something that gives Russian diplomacy even more room to maneuver

The arrest of Russian national Maria Butina in Washington is a significant blow for Russia–U.S. relations

Arms control and dialogue on strategic stability are likely to become the summit’s central topic

The policies of opposing US and EU sanctions should be clearly differentiated

It is impossible to return to the glorious past. The illusion that it is possible is depriving us of our future

There are also ‘icons’ among the target countries that have more or less adapted to life under long-term sanctions rather than abandoning policies. Iran, one such target country, has unparalleled…

How can Moscow respond to a possible US strike on Syria?

It is quite probable that Russia will stop offering itself as a Western partner and will step aside and deal with problems inside and near its borders

Washington is resolved to damaging Russia under Putin as much as it can. But Russia doesn't have to take a hard line

5 reasons Americans will fail to induce Russia’s policy change

Liberal slogans promoting freedom and progress have turned into a powerful tool of soft power determining America’s moral leadership

There will be at least seven reports submitted next year, each of which will most likely provide a pretext for the further alienation of Russia and the United States from each other

A smart and effective system of governance is becoming a key factor of Russia’s security

It is time for us to quit constantly complaining about the treachery of the West, and stop dwelling on who cheated us and how in the 1990s

Russia could become an equal co-author of a new security system in the Baltic region and beyond

How likely is the escalation of US sanctions?

Valdai Discussion Club Report

Russia should be ready for long and meticulous work in upholding its interests in international agencies and institutions.

Sanctions leave Russia the only alternative — to accept the US as a strategic and key challenge to its security

The biggest threat today is an uncontrolled and rapid arms race that matches or outpaces the political rhetoric

OSCE member countries — the most powerful military nations — are hard put to keep the growing terrorist pressure in check. Why is that happening?

Against the European background, Russian identity today looks completely stable

The chemical incident in Idlib brought to nothing all the last months' efforts, aimed to normalize the situation in Syria

The world will become increasingly interconnected, not only in terms of trade, economics, and information, but also in terms of threats. That would force Russia to solve its dilemmas in close…

The Baltic Scenarios

Russia in this new strategy is an opponent to the European Union on a number of fundamental issues

The tragedy for Russia and the collective West is that they continue to fight the wars of the past against one another, while underestimating the ideological strength of radical Islam

It is necessary to realize who makes decisions and how

A review of the report "Relations with Russia: Searching for a Way out of the Political Deadlock"

Russia in Eurasia: SWOT Analysis

Syria and especially Ukraine appear to be inflection points in the trajectory of Russian foreign policy

Experts at the GLOBSEC 2015 conference are concerned that the crumbling architecture of Euro-Atlantic security post-Ukraine is pushing nuclear conflict to the fore

An open letter from Ivan Timofeev to his American counterpart Robert E. Berls Jr.

Shuttle diplomacy exercised by European leaders gives us a phantom of a chance that we must not overlook

Without values and ideological guidelines, any pragmatic activity carried out by a country resembles “rats in the garbage”

Applying the “predator-prey” model to the system of international relations

The Link Between the Sochi Olympics and Russian Foreign Policy

The paper was presented at the Conference “The Development of Russian Far East and Search for a New Paradigm for Regional Cooperation in Northeast Asia”

Economic relations should top the relationship's list of priorities

Bratislava Global Security Forum GLOBSEC 2013

In Russia and the United States there is a shift of generations

Interview for the Global Times

The modern world is again in the grip of an age-old anarchy that cultivates monsters as the only way to survive  

American media reported that RIAC had attempted to set up a meeting between Trump and Vladimir Putin during the U.S. election campaign.

Comments on the article published by The Washington Post concerning contacts between a member of Donald Trump’s campaign headquarters and the RIAC

A Forecasting Report. Summary