Dmitriy Trenin: Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of the first round of negotiations, amounted to a case of complete strategic incoherence
For a long time, when speaking of how European countries had, over the course of 75 years of U.S. hegemony, lost the ability to think and act strategically, it still assumed that such capabilities remained inherent to the hegemon—the United States of America. The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran calls this assumption...
“Cold Peace” with Iran and Economic Diversification
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have concluded a two-week truce. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the United States has received a 10-point proposal from Iran that could serve as a working basis for negotiations.
Although the conflict cannot yet be considered resolved, and the ceasefire agreements may be temporary, it is already possible to recap interim outcomes including for the Gulf monarchies which managed to wait...
Dmitri Trenin: The new leadership will likely engage in less confrontation with the Brussels bureaucracy, but Hungary’s “sovereigntist” course can largely be expected to remain unchanged
The defeat of Viktor Orbán's party in Sunday’s parliamentary elections in Hungary is being portrayed in EU countries as a significant geopolitical shift weakening Russia’s position in Europe. This view was expressed, in particular, by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.
This is, of course, a clear exaggeration....
Locking the Market Before It Opens: The U.S. Strategy to Strand the Global South
On January 7, Senator Lindsey Graham announced that President Donald Trump had endorsed a draft sanctions bill against Russia, framed as pressure to end the special military operation in Ukraine.
The Sanctioning Russia Act of 2025, backed by 84 senators and 151 House members, proposes a 500 percent tariff on countries purchasing Russian uranium. The 500 percent figure is designed to intimidate, not to collect.
Other...
Dmitriy Trenin: Eighty years after the end of the World War II, the main threat of an armed conflict once again emanates for us from Europe
The United States will not leave NATO. The president cannot do this unilaterally, and the Senate would not allow it. Trump is frightening Europeans, but his real goals are to shift the bulk of the financial burden onto Europe and to reduce America's military commitments. The shift is happening—grudgingly, but it is happening.
Europe cannot create its own military...
It is difficult to expect the “golden age” promised by Trump to emerge from the upcoming negotiations
Trump ultimately found a way out of the situation he had created for himself by embarking on the reckless venture of war against Iran. The threat of annihilating an entire civilization appears to have served as a cover for his withdrawal from the battlefield.
Indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington, conducted in recent months through intermediaries—primarily Pakistan, and, behind it...
The operation in Iran, where the United States expected to achieve success similar to Venezuela, turned out to be a poorly calculated action. Misconceptions about Iran assumed that the country was under the control of a single inpidual or group. However, the system formed over centuries within the country became a real challenge for the United States. In fact, the real problem for the US is not limited to the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Rather, this issue is also connected with the...
On April 2, 2026, a roundtable “Dynamics of the Middle East Conflict: Scenarios and Forecasts” was held at the Izvestia Multimedia Information Center
On April 2, 2026, a roundtable “Dynamics of the Middle East Conflict: Scenarios and Forecasts” was held at the Izvestia Multimedia Information Center.
During the discussion the experts addressed the current state of the US-Israel war on Iran, possible scenarios and date of its ending. Some uncertainties were also discussed such as the US policy and...
The United States desperately needs a decisive victory in its war
The outcome of the war with Iran will determine America’s capabilities on the world stage for years to come. That is what makes the current conflict in West Asia so consequential, far beyond the region itself.
US policy toward Iran has become increasingly erratic. Rather than focus on the president’s shifting rhetoric, it is more useful to examine the logic underpinning the confrontation. Washington appears to have convinced itself...
... class minesweepers
, dedicated for operations in the Persian Gulf, have been retired earlier this year. Two
Independence class LCS
, configured for minesweeping, were supposed to fill the gap but both vessels are currently stationed in Malaysia thousands of miles away. Although the
USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship
, with 2,200 marines and dedicated air-wing, is currently heading towards Iran to supplement U.S. forces, its ability to penetrate the Iranian asymmetric defenses and launch amphibious ...
