... the entire region.
Debate over the causes of the new military phase of the YC spans a broad spectrum of interpretations: from assertions that Houthi actions pose threats to maritime security in the Red Sea and that the “Axis of Resistance” led by Iran endangers Israel’s security, to the opposite accusations directed at the United States and Israel, of aggressive policies and the obstruction of a lawful settlement in Gaza. For the purposes of studying the anatomy of the Yemeni crisis, it is important to emphasize another aspect of this issue: chronic ...
Tehran may well look to the experience of the DPRK
On September 26, 2025, the UN Security Council rejected a proposed resolution on extending the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)
on the Iranian nuclear programme.
Among the permanent members of the UN Security Council, the United States, Great Britain, and France voted against. China and Russia voted in favour. The vote a
week earlier
had the same result. The JCPOA, enshrined in
UN ...
... and ideological conflict converge. The Persian Gulf has become a focal point of international interest and attention since the
Arab Spring
uprisings broke out in 2011.
Recent events suggest that tides are changing. Attacks against Qatar, first by
Iran
in June and then by
Israel
this month, indicate a significant change in the region's security landscape. The attacks have called into question the fundamental strategic presumptions that have served as the foundation for Gulf Arab state security ...
... western doctrine of international law reacted to what has transpired by posts of M. Milanovic (UK), M. Schmitt (USA), A.A. Haque (USA) and K. J. Keller (Netherlands).
M. Milanovic, in particular, notes that the classical understanding of self-defense as allowing ... ... victim is faced with the need to use its “last window of opportunity”. Israel cannot be guided by the first approach, since Iran does not yet have nuclear weapons, thus it can only use the second approach. Iran’s anti-Israel rhetoric, however, is aimed ...
... course, and Iran seems to be siding more with Russia in the Ukraine crisis. Tehran is becoming more conscious that the United States is the party it needs to talk directly with and that Europe is weak. As a result, it seems that Europe's approach to Iran, which has been deteriorating since President Trump cancelled the Lausanne Agreement during his first term, is coming to an end. A more defensive approach that emphasizes containment, sanctions, and crisis management is taking its place, with the EU gaining momentum to reimpose or strengthen sanctions. However, the EU's ...
What Iran’s 12-Day Conflict Reveals About Modern Deterrence and Regional Power Shifts
The following paper explores the military and strategic dimensions of Iran’s 12-Day War—a brief yet consequential conflict that has left a lasting imprint on regional ...
Strategically, Russia has little to gain and a lot to lose in case the crisis goes deeper
In the early morning of June 24 US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after twelve days of intense airstrikes. The United States itself actively participated in this escalation cycle by hitting three major Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan on June 22. Though the American leader claimed that the ...
A moment of “mutual deterrence” within a fragile balance
Following President Donald Trump's announcement of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel, many questions remain about the durability of such an arrangement after years of proxy conflict—culminating recently in a direct 12-day aerial exchange of fire.
The nature of the agreement itself remains shrouded in ambiguity. Trump ...
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy. In recent years, the United ...
... a
“presidential transition”
occurs overnight, Vice President J.D. Vance may commit US forces directly to Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Iran.
But let’s game out another scenario: If the current conflict escalates and the Temple Mount in Jerusalem is destroyed—whether by design or by accident—Iran will almost certainly be blamed for the loss of Islam’s third holiest site. Such an event would enrage the Sunni Muslim world, redirecting its fury toward Shia Iran, and potentially paving the way for Israel to construct its long-anticipated Third ...
