Policy Brief #47 / 2023
The Middle East has been clearly showing signs that is it changing. It would not be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional tensions in certain countries like Yemen.
Another significant factor that is driving the shifts in Middle Eastern state alignments could have to do with the decision of the US to rekindle its interest in establishing a new nuclear deal with Iran. Although talks have been conducted away from public view, US attempts to contact its key regional adversary appears far from accidental. The move could have been prompted by changes in Iran’s relations with other countries, especially its evolving cooperation with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. If any agreement has been reached (which is currently too early to judge), it would only boost Iran’s position in the region. The mere fact that the US is holding such talks indicates that it recognizes that regional changes are taking place, changes it must learn to adapt to.
The next important factor behind the region’s political transformation is Russia’s active presence in the Middle East’s diplomatic, political and economic sectors. Moscow has been taking vigorous steps to develop relations with the Gulf monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. For example, a number of high-ranking officials from these countries have paid official visits to Russia in June 2023, including UAE’s President and Qatar’s Prime Minister. As for the UAE, it is worth noting that the country became the greatest reseller of Russian gold in 2022. Russia’s gold exports to the Emirates in 2022 totaled 75.7 tons or $4.3 billion.
Another important factor shaping the Middle East’s approach to international relations is Turkey’s foreign policy. Particularly important, is Turkey’s position on Syria prior to the presidential elections in May 2023, and the new aspects it has now acquired following the victory of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Judging by the leadership’s recent steps, Turkey wants to maintain continuity with its previous policies, as demonstrated by Turkey’s efforts to strengthen and expand ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE; in 2022, Riyadh and Ankara agreed to start a new phase of bilateral cooperation. Turkey has also expressed its intention to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt, Syria and Israel. Interestingly, Ankara had already taken some actions in this regard even before the May 2023 elections.
Therefore, potential improvements in the relations between Turkey and Syria would fall well in line with the “relations harmonization” approach that seems to be trending across the Middle East today.
Policy Brief #47 / 2023
The Middle East has been clearly showing signs that is it changing. It would not be an overstatement to say that a lot of what is happening now would have been unthinkable just a couple of years ago.
The greatest of these changes is the China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and improved relations may help reduce regional tensions in certain countries like Yemen.
Another significant factor that is driving the shifts in Middle Eastern state alignments could have to do with the decision of the US to rekindle its interest in establishing a new nuclear deal with Iran. Although talks have been conducted away from public view, US attempts to contact its key regional adversary appears far from accidental. The move could have been prompted by changes in Iran’s relations with other countries, especially its evolving cooperation with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. If any agreement has been reached (which is currently too early to judge), it would only boost Iran’s position in the region. The mere fact that the US is holding such talks indicates that it recognizes that regional changes are taking place, changes it must learn to adapt to.
The next important factor behind the region’s political transformation is Russia’s active presence in the Middle East’s diplomatic, political and economic sectors. Moscow has been taking vigorous steps to develop relations with the Gulf monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. For example, a number of high-ranking officials from these countries have paid official visits to Russia in June 2023, including UAE’s President and Qatar’s Prime Minister. As for the UAE, it is worth noting that the country became the greatest reseller of Russian gold in 2022. Russia’s gold exports to the Emirates in 2022 totaled 75.7 tons or $4.3 billion.
Another important factor shaping the Middle East’s approach to international relations is Turkey’s foreign policy. Particularly important, is Turkey’s position on Syria prior to the presidential elections in May 2023, and the new aspects it has now acquired following the victory of incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Judging by the leadership’s recent steps, Turkey wants to maintain continuity with its previous policies, as demonstrated by Turkey’s efforts to strengthen and expand ties with Saudi Arabia and the UAE; in 2022, Riyadh and Ankara agreed to start a new phase of bilateral cooperation. Turkey has also expressed its intention to restore diplomatic relations with Egypt, Syria and Israel. Interestingly, Ankara had already taken some actions in this regard even before the May 2023 elections.
Therefore, potential improvements in the relations between Turkey and Syria would fall well in line with the “relations harmonization” approach that seems to be trending across the Middle East today.
Syria–Turkey Relations: A Road to Normalization, 5.5 Mb
