RIAC and IRAS Working Paper #59/2020
RIAC and the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies Working Paper #59/2020
This paper aims to analyze the pivotal points of the Middle Eastern crises and to which extent the interests of Moscow and Tehran overlap or contradict each other. Some of the key issues of the political situation in the region were assessed, such as the situation in Idlib, the prospects for a political process in Syria, Israel’s role in the region’s future, the path to Syria’s reconstruction...
Confusion and lack of definition have made US relations with the Kurds a challenge to perceive and discuss
International relations have been undergoing a gradual but sustained transformation over the last few decades. For example, the 2014-2017
peshmerga
-Islamic State (IS) war, while a case of a small, asymmetric ...
... 1991, the latter of which led to a change in the domestic policy of President of Iraq Saddam Hussein and thus brought about new dynamics in the relations between the Iraqi government and the country’s ethnoreligious groups (mainly the Shiites and the Kurds). Iraq was under an embargo imposed by the United Nations at the time, which limited access to resource distribution for a part of the elite and, combined with the government’s practices that marginalized a part of the population, led many to ...
... consequences. For the first time, the Sunnis found themselves in a position of the ethnic-denominational minority. They felt the growing inferiority of their situation, which prompted many of them to join ISIS terrorist camps. The same situation motivated the Kurds to steer a course for independence. The overall terrorist threat during the expansion of ISIS rallied the Shiites and the Kurds to fight the pseudo-caliphate together. Yet, after ISIS was defeated, the Kurds held a referendum on independence. As ...
... Iraq and Syria, as well as the energy policy of Russia in the Arab Mashreq region. The authors also analyze Iraq’s oil prospects in the post-war period under sanctions against Iran. Special attention is paid to the Kurdish factor and the role the Kurds play in the future of energy in the region, the possibility of subregional integration in the Arab Mashreq and the increasing influence of Russian energy companies in regards to gas projects located in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia’s Interests ...
... entity that does not have any demographic or geographical components within the territories of the Syrian Republic? In fact, the Kurdish population in Syria does not exceed six percent. The UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura revealed that Kurds represent only five percent of the Syrian population. Besides, Kurds live in geographical areas that are not interconnected and do not constitute a majority in their places of residence. It is the so-called “war against ISIS” that granted them ...
... inserted itself between the Syrian military and the Turkish observation post. Turkey might find a way out of the situation by withdrawing its observation post from Murak and launching a new operation in the north of Syria against the U.S.-supported Kurds. Given the situation, it is desirable for Russia to find a way of advancing the dialogue between Damascus and the Kurds.
While Ankara supported the Syrian opposition, it undertook under the Sochi agreements to fight terrorism in Idlib and facilitate ...
As Russia seeks to
expand its cooperation
with Turkey beyond Syria, Moscow is unlikely to deter Ankara from a new offensive against the Kurds should Turkey decide to take action
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s repeated threats to attack Kurdish forces in northeast Syria depend on Ankara’s ability to meet certain conditions if they’re to become reality. Several of these,...
Kremlin has nothing to lose but a good opportunity to have a significant long-term gain if the Turkish operation is successfully conducted
On August 4, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
declared in a speech
during an opening ceremony that Turkey will launch a military operation in Syria’s terrorist PKK/YPG-occupied eastern Euphrates region. After the official declaration of the upcoming operation, there occurred the question of “how will it affect the bilateral relations between Russia and...
... cooperation with Russia is a tactical phenomenon that was caused by Western partners’ inability to show solidarity on many occasions and to act against Russia.
Differences over political issues like the fate of Assad’s regime or scope of rights for Kurds may be pushed from the agenda in the mid-term, allowing bilateral cooperation on Syria to be focused on economic matters like reconstruction, trade, energy projects. These are the areas that are important for Russian plans to rebuild Syria and that ...
