... conducted away from public view, US attempts to contact its key regional adversary appears far from accidental. The move could have been prompted by changes in Iran’s relations with other countries, especially its evolving cooperation with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. If any agreement has been reached (which is currently too early to judge), it would only boost Iran’s position in the region. The mere fact that the US is holding such talks indicates that it recognizes that regional changes ...
... not taken into account, we can expect an increase in their activity, which can complicate negotiations with Ankara.
Kirill Semenov:
Istanbul Terrorist Attack: What Awaits Turkey and its Neighbors?
However, a new Turkish ground operation against the Kurds could negate any negotiating efforts. It is worth recalling that back in December of last year, talks were held in Moscow between the defense ministers of Russia, Turkey, and Syria. This was the first meeting in 11 years between the heads of the defense departments of Damascus and Ankara.
As Al-Watan reports, the highlight of the talks was the agreement on the withdrawal of Turkish troops from northern ...
... However, Turkey's ground campaign, as well as continued air strikes against the Kurds, is likely to complicate communication with Syria and hinder any mutual trust forming. This will happen even if Ankara succeeds in obtaining formal permission from Russia and the Syrian government to conduct an operation against the Kurds. According to a statement by Turkish National Defense Minister Hulusi Akar, Ankara is currently discussing with Moscow the possibility of using Syria’s airspace to conduct a military operation against Kurdish groups.
However, the Turkish military ...
... activities in the areas of the Turkish operations "Olive Branch" and "Euphrates Shield". At the same time, in the course of the Turkish operation "The Source of Peace" in the fall of 2019, during negotiations between the Russian side and the Syrian Kurds, the latter agreed to Russian proposals to withdraw YPG units from the border strip in northeastern Syria, where Russian-Turkish patrols were supposed to operate. This provision was enshrined in the
Sochi Memorandum
, to which Erdogan referred ...
... assessed, such as the situation in Idlib, the prospects for a political process in Syria, Israel’s role in the region’s future, the path to Syria’s reconstruction and the impact of U.S. policies on the emerging new order in the Middle East. Both Russia and the Islamic Republic of Iran regard each other as necessary components of the regional architecture that they envision for the Middle East. The paper attempts to shed light on the views of Moscow and Tehran on these issues.
Russia and Iran ...
... Iraq and Syria, as well as the energy policy of Russia in the Arab Mashreq region. The authors also analyze Iraq’s oil prospects in the post-war period under sanctions against Iran. Special attention is paid to the Kurdish factor and the role the Kurds play in the future of energy in the region, the possibility of subregional integration in the Arab Mashreq and the increasing influence of Russian energy companies in regards to gas projects located in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Russia’s Interests in the Arab Mashreq: Analyzing the Future of Oil and Gas in Iraq and Syria
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... operation. How the parties will conduct their operations and whether they would succeed will be up to them.
Currently, the question remains open as to how much the United States is willing to concede to Turkey. However, as Turkey launches its operation, Russia has an opening to interact with Kurds. If the United States allows Turkey to go too far, Kurds will realize the former cannot ensure their safety.
For the Kurds, this setup is fraught with the risk of possible loss of all their achievements (and territories). Moscow could work through ...
... assault and the Americans are unable to provide a cover for them, the Kurds may turn to Russia, empowering Moscow to try to create the conditions for yet another attempt at a rapprochement between the Kurds and Bashar al-Assad’s government. Until now, Russia sees the Kurds as having adopted “maximalist positions” in their dealings with the Syrian government. “Of course, we’d like to avoid casualties. But the Turkish operation could, perhaps, help us settle some issues,” a senior Russian diplomat told Al-Monitor ...
... Turkey will launch a military operation in Syria’s terrorist PKK/YPG-occupied eastern Euphrates region. After the official declaration of the upcoming operation, there occurred the question of “how will it affect the bilateral relations between Russia and Turkey?” There will be no negative repercussion of the operation on Russian-Turkish relations.
Timur Makhmutov, Ruslan Mamedov:
Russia and the Arab Mashreq: The Post-Conflict Period in Syria
The discussions to create a safe zone inside Syria's ...
... common solution and acknowledge their corresponding legitimate interests and concerns. Turkey’s cooperation with Russia is a tactical phenomenon that was caused by Western partners’ inability to show solidarity on many occasions and to act against Russia.
Differences over political issues like the fate of Assad’s regime or scope of rights for Kurds may be pushed from the agenda in the mid-term, allowing bilateral cooperation on Syria to be focused on economic matters like reconstruction, trade, energy projects. These are the areas that are important for Russian plans to rebuild Syria and that ...
