Russia's Foreign Policy: Looking Towards 2018. Summary

This report reflects the results of the work conducted by the Working Group for Forecasting. A systemic approach has been taken to identify the most important areas of Russia’s foreign policy for 2018, as well as the key threats and opportunities for the country on the global arena. The geographic scope of the forecasts covers the West, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East and the post-Soviet states.

The authors hope that the ideas and conclusions provided in this report will be of use to the Russian authorities when making foreign policy decisions, and will come in handy for experts in international affairs, researchers and journalists.

This report reflects the results of the work conducted by the Working Group for Forecasting. A systemic approach has been taken to identify the most important areas of Russia’s foreign policy for 2018, as well as the key threats and opportunities for the country on the global arena. The geographic scope of the forecasts covers the West, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East and the post-Soviet states.

The authors hope that the ideas and conclusions provided in this report will be of use to the Russian authorities when making foreign policy decisions, and will come in handy for experts in international affairs, researchers and journalists.

The 2018 presidential elections will mark the beginning of a new foreign policy cycle for the Russian Federation. In the context of the elections, the main areas of foreign policy expected to be revised (with a certain amount of continuity), and these changes will be reflected in the respective conceptual foreign policy documents. The Russian presidential elections just so happen to coincide with the political cycles in a number of countries, including China, the United States, and several EU and Middle Eastern states. The "naked wire" or "dead wood" effect will only increase in international relations. Crisis scenarios may appear as a result of the intentional or unintentional actions of individual countries, or because of poor coordination in resolving issues that affect the entire world. Russia's key interest lies in creating favourable conditions for the country's internal development. Economic backwardness is a growing threat to Russia's sovereignty, narrowing the window of opportunity in foreign policy.

Project page: russiancouncil.ru/en/forecast2018