This report reflects the results of the work conducted by the Working Group for Forecasting. A systemic approach has been taken to identify the most important areas of Russia's foreign policy for 2018, as well as the key threats and opportunities for the country on the global arena. The geographic scope of the forecasts covers the West, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East and the post­Soviet states.
The authors hope that the ideas and conclusions provided in this report will be of use to the Russian authorities when making foreign policy decisions, and will come in handy for experts in international affairs, researchers and journalists.

The 2018 presidential elections will mark the beginning of a new foreign policy cycle for the Russian Federation. In the context of the elections, the main areas of foreign policy expected to be revised (with a certain amount of continuity), and these changes will be reflected in the respective conceptual foreign policy documents. The Russian presidential elections just so happen to coincide with the political cycles in a number of countries, including China, the United States, and several EU and Middle Eastern states. The "naked wire" or "dead wood" effect will only increase in international relations. Crisis scenarios may appear as a result of the intentional or unintentional actions of individual countries, or because of poor coordination in resolving issues that affect the entire world. Russia's key interest lies in creating favourable conditions for the country's internal development. Economic backwardness is a growing threat to Russia's sovereignty, narrowing the window of opportunity in foreign policy.

The western dimension of Russia's foreign policy seems the most problematic.
The main results in this area in 2017 can be summed up as follows:

— Increased sanctions pressure on Russia; extended sanctions list and reasons
for imposing sanctions;

— Russia's "interference" in the U.S. elections; the transformation of the digital
environment into an area of increased risk in U.S.–Russia relations; growing
toxic; digital issues in relations with the European Union;

— Information war; media discrimination; the polarization of information discourse;

— Stagnation in the implementation of the Minsk Protocol;

— Demonstrations of strength and capacity building by Russia and NATO in areas
where their interests intersect;

— A lack of breakthroughs with regard to common challenges and threats; increased negative impact of problem areas (Ukraine, digital issues, etc.) on
areas of common interest.

Being a hotbed of radical Islamist ideology the Middle East remains a source of threat for Russia and its allies. At the same time, Russia is consolidating its role has a responsible global power that assists in resolving common security issues.
The main results for 2017 in this area are as follows:

— The liberation of a significant part of Syria from the hands of Islamic State with
the direct participation of Russia. The creation of conditions for moving the
peace process forward and rebuilding Syria.

— Agreements on de­escalation zones, prevention of clashes between Russia and
the United States in Syria, progress in the Astana Peace Process.

— Normalization of relations with Turkey.

— Development of relations with Saudi Arabia, co­ordinating interaction on the
oil markets.

— Maintaining the status quo with regard to Iran's nuclear program.

The Asia Pacific Region remains highly dynamic. Here, the balance between threats and opportunities is the most favourable for Russia. The most important results of 2017 in this area include the following:

— The aggravation of the nuclear missile crisis on the Korean Peninsula; Russia's growing demand as an intermediary and partner in resolving issues.

— The accession of India and Pakistan to the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).

— The new foreign policy adopted by the People's Republic of China following the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and deepening relations with Russia.

— Developing contacts between Russia and Japan and the progress made in the dialogue on trade and economic issues.

— The revision of Russia–India relations in the context of events held in honour of the 70th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

— The dialogue with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and key countries in the region within the framework of the EAEU's activity.

The former Soviet states make up the most important region for Russia
in terms of security and implementing economic integration projects. The main
results of 2017 in this area:

— Successful development of the EAEU: signing of the Customs Code of the Eurasian Economic Union; growth of the Union's domestic and foreign trade.

— Achievements of the EAEU in its international activities: signing of a trade and economic agreement with the People's Republic of China; negotiations with Iran, Singapore, Serbia, India, Israel and Egypt; cooperation with the ASEAN.

— Security cooperation within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO): West 2017 and other exercises.

— Initiative to send a peacekeeping mission to Donbass to prevent the situation in the conflict zone from further escalation.

— The work carried out to prevent an exacerbation in Russia–Armenia and Russia–Kazakhstan relations against the backdrop of their signing cooperation agreements with the European Union.

— Preserving stability in the Nagorno ­Karabakh conflict; balanced development of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.