... conventional escalation feasible, potentially expanding from Ukrainian war theatre to a broader regional conflict, necessitating the abandonment of Cold War-era deterrence frameworks.
The inevitable losers in either nuclear or conventional escalation scenarios include: a) Ukraine as primary battleground; b) Russia facing sustained missile and other types of strikes and potential offensives; c) European NATO members, particularly on the eastern and north-eastern flanks who will be subjected to Russian counterstrikes and,...
Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February 24 that the Russophobes had been ...
.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase of Russian oil. But Russia is ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia ...
... individual companies and projects. The risk of new sanctions stems from a series of political factors: the Ukrainian crisis and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance with the Minsk Agreements in the coming year. The stabilization of the situation in Donbass significantly decreases the risk ...
... eyes of many Russians.
The attitude of the Russian political elite toward the election campaign in Ukraine also varies from neutral to a sceptical one, as I will further illustrate in this article.
What does Moscow want?
Andrey Kortunov:
Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future
The overall expectation is that Russia is going to intervene in Ukrainian elections and push for a more pro-Russian candidate. This strategy was used for the first time in 2004 during the “Orange Revolution” and proved its ...
... on the contrary, to actively promote cooperation between Russia and Ukraine. The West will find it very hard, if not impossible, to ensure Ukraine’s economic prosperity entirely on its own, without Russia.
Are there Grounds for Optimism?
Foresight Ukraine: 4 Scenarios for the Development of Ukraine
How feasible is the preferable scenario of the “European Bridge”? The above-listed changes to the basic concepts of the three sides to the Ukrainian conflict will certainly appear painful, vulnerable to criticism ...
On 20th of February Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe (Vienna) held the presentation on the outcomes of the project "Foresight Ukraine. Four scenarios for the development of Ukraine".
On 20th of February Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the
FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe
(Vienna) held the presentation on the outcomes of the project ...
On November 8 in Berlin Friedrich Ebert Stiftung headquarters hosted a presentation of the report on Ukraine’s future scenarios prepared by an international group of experts in 2016-2017.
On November 8 in Berlin
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
headquarters hosted a presentation of the report on Ukraine’s future scenarios prepared by an international group of experts in ...
