Search: Scenarios (31 material)

 

Ukrainian Crisis: Political Economy of Confrontation

.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase ...

11.01.2022

War Between Russia and Ukraine: A Basic Scenario?

The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial? Concern is growing in the Western media over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia is preparing a military campaign against Ukraine. The supposed goal is to break the deadlock of the Minsk Agreements, to impose further coexistence conditions on Kiev and its Western partners, to prevent...

25.11.2021

EU-Russia in 2030: Alternatives Scenarios

... able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade In November 2020, the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states, published four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing ...

29.10.2021

Prospects and Scenarios for Afghanistan: Russian and Chinese Interests

..., which offered economic and military assistance while involved in Afghanistan. Finally, historical and ethnic ties play an important role: amongst others, Tajikistan with Afghan Tajiks, Uzbekistan with Uzbeks, Turkmenistan with Turkmen. Development Scenarios for the Situation in Afghanistan The multitude of factors that could affect the situation in Afghanistan make any forecasting a challenge. As for the domestic political situation, there are two likely scenarios, which could be called “A Strong ...

24.09.2021

What Would Happen to the World Without the United States?

Finding solution to some problems would actually be easier without Washington, since the U.S. is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution The United States is often referred to as an “indispensable nation.” The term was first used in January 1997 by President Bill Clinton during his second inaugural address. Madeleine Albright would mention it in her speeches and writings on numerous occasions after that. The underlying idea of “indispensability” here is that it suggests it would...

11.08.2021

To the Beat of its Own Drum: On Internal Logic of Events in Tunisia

... Schmitt’s state of exception here. Moreover, the president is not suspending the activities of the legislative assembly forever—but only for a month. This by no means constitutes a usurpation of power. All this allows us to offer a number of possible scenarios. Scenario 1 : Chaos. Concentration of power in the hands of the president brings about hardly any improvements in the situation. High-profile corruption cases are seen as an instrument of settling scores within the political elites, while the ...

03.08.2021

The Fallout of the US-Iran Confrontation for Russia: Revisiting Factors in Moscow’s Calculus

RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report 2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’...

28.01.2021

Alternative Futures of EU-Russia Relations in 2030

... disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic partnership that safeguards peace and stability in Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed: 1. A " Cold Partnership " in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing major ...

06.11.2020

RUSI Drafts Scenarios for Russia Beyond 2024

On June 16, 2020, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) hosted an online presentation of scenarios for Russia’s future beyond 2024 On June 16, 2020, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) hosted an online presentation of scenarios for Russia’s future beyond 2024. A set of scenarios was the result of cooperation of a group ...

20.06.2020

Sanctions Against Russia: A Look Into 2020

Policy Brief #27 / 2020 Policy Brief #27 / 2020 Executive Summary — The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year. — By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable? — Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However...

22.05.2020
 

Poll conducted

  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
     33 (31%)
    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
     30 (28%)
    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
     21 (19%)
 
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