Search: Scenarios (20 materials)

 

Vienna Hosts an International Expert Group Meeting to Discuss Long-Term Scenarios of Russia's Future

On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia. On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia. An international group of experts from Austria, Germany, the United...

09.09.2019

A New Anarchy? Scenarios for World Order Dynamics

... becoming increasingly autonomous. The developments are a nontrivial challenge for Russia’s foreign policy. They are also generating a series of purely research questions. For instance, what will the configuration of the world order be in the future? What scenarios can be expected? How to adapt or how to shape a desired alternative? Answering these will be of extreme importance for transforming Russia’s doctrinal attitudes. The main problem is that Russia’s prevalent multipolar concept took shape in ...

06.08.2019

A View from Moscow on Ukraine's Presidential Vote

... Russians. The attitude of the Russian political elite toward the election campaign in Ukraine also varies from neutral to a sceptical one, as I will further illustrate in this article. What does Moscow want? Andrey Kortunov: Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future The overall expectation is that Russia is going to intervene in Ukrainian elections and push for a more pro-Russian candidate. This strategy was used for the first time in 2004 during the “Orange Revolution” and proved its ...

28.03.2019

Forecasting 2024: Experts Discuss Scenarios for Russia’s Future in Berlin

On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia. On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia. An international group of experts from Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia took part in...

25.03.2019

Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future

... of shaping Ukraine’s civic nation). Some can be considered primarily within the bilateral context, while others need to be analysed against a pan-European or even global background. Given the great diversity of these factors, a matrix of possible scenarios of Russia–Ukraine relations may be constructed along two axes. The first axis reflects the possible evolution of Ukrainian society and state (the “weak Ukraine — strong Ukraine” axis), the second reflects the possible evolution of the ...

27.11.2018

RIAC at the HSE Roundtable on Cybersecurity

... Economics (HSE) together with the World Economic Forum (WEF), Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security Futures hosted a roundtable "Cyber Security Futures 2025." Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security has developed a set of scenarios that portray a landscape of ‘cybersecurity futures’ designed to stress and stretch trade-offs in objectives and values that will appear in the near future. The scenarios are not exclusively focused on cybersecurity issues themselves, but ...

28.09.2018

The Day the United Nations Ceased to Exist

A Scary Tale for the permanent members of the UN Security Council Tensions in Syria continued to escalate throughout 2019. Hostilities were stepped up again throughout the country and the conflict’s total toll approached a million. A new wave of Syrian refugees swept through Turkey and flooded Europe. Russia blocked US and British resolutions on enforcing peace on Damascus in the UN Security Council nine times. Eventually, the Western countries accused Moscow of deliberately subverting the Security...

04.05.2018

Europe and Russia: Four Scenarios for the New Cycle

... state-controlled, foreign markets focused model (radical reforms). Using these two axes as horizontal and vertical, we end up with a matrix containing four quadrants; each of them stands for a scenario of the future EU — Russia relationship. Each of the scenarios has its logic, its driving forces, its limitations and its likely implications for both sides. Igor Ivanov: Russia’s Post-Election Foreign Policy: New Challenges, New Horizons “No Man’s Land” (weak Europe, no reforms in Russia) . Under ...

25.04.2018

Russia vs the West: A War Scenario and a New Logic of Confrontation

How can Moscow respond to a possible US strike on Syria? The aggravation of rivalry between Russia and the West in the past few months is raising the urgent question of a possible further escalation of tensions and its forms and consequences. Political relations between Moscow and Western capitals have gone beyond the critical point. The threadbare thesis about the lack of trust can be confidently discarded. Things are much worse. The sides do not want to and cannot listen to each other. Official...

11.04.2018

How do We Get Out of the Chelyabinsk Disco?

... option is to embrace isolation and even increase it, gradually turning Russia into a “besieged fortress” — a kind of very large North Korea, but with its global capabilities and its permanent seat on the UN Security Council intact. Either of these scenarios would be a nightmare for U.S. foreign and military policy. And it is difficult to say which one would be more dangerous for Washington. A consolidation of the Russia–China alliance would lead to precisely the geopolitical configuration that ...

01.03.2018
 

Poll conducted

  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
     33 (31%)
    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
     30 (28%)
    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
     21 (19%)
 
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