... pandemic, exacerbated tensions in the U.S.-China relations, political regime change in Afghanistan, instability in the Sahel, the ongoing civil war in Yemen, intensified nuclear program in North Korea, etc.
It appears proper to identify three potential scenarios of the future post-crisis transformation of the international system, which will provisionally be termed “restoration”, “reformation” and “revolution”. The likelihood of each scenario is debatable, but each has its own logic and ...
The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February...
In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails
A Retrospective Introduction
In 2008–2012 we published results of a long-term research project on the alternative scenarios of Russia’s future in several publications including ‘
On Russia: Perspectives from the Engelsberg Seminar 2008
’ from the Axel and Margaret Ax:son Johnson Foundation. The project purported to make two major steps: first, to generate scenarios ...
... directly announced a set of restrictive measures that would be taken against Russia in the event of war. Apparently, another round of escalation is coming. In the near future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from several premises.
Igor Ivanov:
Is War Inevitable?
It is inevitable that amid peaceful conditions, Ukraine will pursue an anti-Russian course. An outwardly loose but ...
.... The region has received large-scale investments and the level of its development, according to several parameters, is higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia is preparing a military campaign against Ukraine. The supposed goal is to break the deadlock of the Minsk Agreements, to impose further coexistence conditions on Kiev and its Western partners, to prevent...
... able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade
In November 2020, the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing ...
..., which offered economic and military assistance while involved in Afghanistan. Finally, historical and ethnic ties play an important role: amongst others, Tajikistan with Afghan Tajiks, Uzbekistan with Uzbeks, Turkmenistan with Turkmen.
Development Scenarios for the Situation in Afghanistan
The multitude of factors that could affect the situation in Afghanistan make any forecasting a challenge. As for the domestic political situation, there are two likely scenarios, which could be called “A Strong ...
Finding solution to some problems would actually be easier without Washington, since the U.S. is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution
The United States is often referred to as an “indispensable nation.” The term was first used in January 1997 by President Bill Clinton during his second inaugural address. Madeleine Albright would mention it in her speeches and writings on numerous occasions after that. The underlying idea of “indispensability” here is that it suggests it would...
... Schmitt’s state of exception here. Moreover, the president is not suspending the activities of the legislative assembly forever—but only for a month. This by no means constitutes a usurpation of power.
All this allows us to offer a number of possible scenarios.
Scenario 1
: Chaos. Concentration of power in the hands of the president brings about hardly any improvements in the situation. High-profile corruption cases are seen as an instrument of settling scores within the political elites, while the ...
