On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Austria, Germany, the United...
... becoming increasingly autonomous.
The developments are a nontrivial challenge for Russia’s foreign policy. They are also generating a series of purely research questions. For instance, what will the configuration of the world order be in the future? What scenarios can be expected? How to adapt or how to shape a desired alternative? Answering these will be of extreme importance for transforming Russia’s doctrinal attitudes.
The main problem is that Russia’s prevalent multipolar concept took shape in ...
... Russians.
The attitude of the Russian political elite toward the election campaign in Ukraine also varies from neutral to a sceptical one, as I will further illustrate in this article.
What does Moscow want?
Andrey Kortunov:
Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future
The overall expectation is that Russia is going to intervene in Ukrainian elections and push for a more pro-Russian candidate. This strategy was used for the first time in 2004 during the “Orange Revolution” and proved its ...
On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On March 21–22, 2019, Berlin Center for East European and International Studies (ZOiS) held a scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Germany, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Russia took part in...
... of shaping Ukraine’s civic nation). Some can be considered primarily within the bilateral context, while others need to be analysed against a pan-European or even global background.
Given the great diversity of these factors, a matrix of possible scenarios of Russia–Ukraine relations may be constructed along two axes. The first axis reflects the possible evolution of Ukrainian society and state (the “weak Ukraine — strong Ukraine” axis), the second reflects the possible evolution of the ...
... Economics (HSE) together with the World Economic Forum (WEF), Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security Futures hosted a roundtable "Cyber Security Futures 2025."
Berkeley’s Center for Long-Term Cyber Security has developed a
set of scenarios
that portray a landscape of ‘cybersecurity futures’ designed to stress and stretch trade-offs in objectives and values that will appear in the near future. The scenarios are not exclusively focused on cybersecurity issues themselves, but ...
A Scary Tale for the permanent members of the UN Security Council
Tensions in Syria continued to escalate throughout 2019. Hostilities were stepped up again throughout the country and the conflict’s total toll approached a million. A new wave of Syrian refugees swept through Turkey and flooded Europe. Russia blocked US and British resolutions on enforcing peace on Damascus in the UN Security Council nine times.
Eventually, the Western countries accused Moscow of deliberately subverting the Security...
... state-controlled, foreign markets focused model (radical reforms). Using these two axes as horizontal and vertical, we end up with a matrix containing four quadrants; each of them stands for a scenario of the future EU — Russia relationship. Each of the scenarios has its logic, its driving forces, its limitations and its likely implications for both sides.
Igor Ivanov:
Russia’s Post-Election Foreign Policy: New Challenges, New Horizons
“No Man’s Land” (weak Europe, no reforms in Russia)
. Under ...
How can Moscow respond to a possible US strike on Syria?
The aggravation of rivalry between Russia and the West in the past few months is raising the urgent question of a possible further escalation of tensions and its forms and consequences. Political relations between Moscow and Western capitals have gone beyond the critical point. The threadbare thesis about the lack of trust can be confidently discarded. Things are much worse. The sides do not want to and cannot listen to each other. Official...
... option is to embrace isolation and even increase it, gradually turning Russia into a “besieged fortress” — a kind of very large North Korea, but with its global capabilities and its permanent seat on the UN Security Council intact.
Either of these scenarios would be a nightmare for U.S. foreign and military policy. And it is difficult to say which one would be more dangerous for Washington. A consolidation of the Russia–China alliance would lead to precisely the geopolitical configuration that ...
