Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February 24 that the Russophobes had been ...
... higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under control. The economic cost of the war may be simply unacceptable due to qualitatively new sanctions, including bans on the purchase of Russian oil. But Russia is more likely to benefit from the very possibility of such a scenario. It can serve as a signal to the ...
The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?
Concern is growing
in the Western media
over Russian military activity in the southwestern theatre. There are opinions that Russia ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years.... ... and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance ...
... legitimate in the eyes of many Russians.
The attitude of the Russian political elite toward the election campaign in Ukraine also varies from neutral to a sceptical one, as I will further illustrate in this article.
What does Moscow want?
Andrey Kortunov:
Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future
The overall expectation is that Russia is going to intervene in Ukrainian elections and push for a more pro-Russian candidate. This strategy was used for the first time in 2004 during the “Orange Revolution” and proved its ...
... of shaping Ukraine’s civic nation). Some can be considered primarily within the bilateral context, while others need to be analysed against a pan-European or even global background.
Given the great diversity of these factors, a matrix of possible scenarios of Russia–Ukraine relations may be constructed along two axes. The first axis reflects the possible evolution of Ukrainian society and state (the “weak Ukraine — strong Ukraine” axis), the second reflects the possible evolution of the general international ...
On November 8 in Berlin Friedrich Ebert Stiftung headquarters hosted a presentation of the report on Ukraine’s future scenarios prepared by an international group of experts in 2016-2017.
On November 8 in Berlin
Friedrich Ebert Stiftung
headquarters hosted a presentation of the report on Ukraine’s future scenarios prepared by an international group of experts in ...
... in order for it to avoid slipping into chaos and a situation of total collapse.
REUTERS/Alexei Nikolskyi/RIA Novosti/Kremlin
Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko talks with
his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, as
France's President Francois Hollande watches
during a meeting in Milan October 17, 2014
Decentralization and Compromise
Of all the possible scenarios, this is the least likely to be achieved – especially following the G20 Summit in Brisbane and the introduction ...
... Ukraine and Russia's relations with Europe and the United States, who offered their assessments of the domestic situation in Ukraine and possible settlement of the crisis.
Following the session, RIAC plans to generate the negative, positive and status-quo scenarios for future Ukraine developments.
Situational analysis "Russia and Ukraine: Corridor of Opportunities"
