Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... security in endless consultations and agreements
The aggravation of the situation around Ukraine has revived a long-standing dispute over the motives of great power politics... ... two other players stand out, whose “currency baskets” are more asymmetric. The European Union has a whole range of soft currencies. But in the segment of hard assets... ... In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems...
... individual companies and projects. The risk of new sanctions stems from a series of political factors: the Ukrainian crisis and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance with the Minsk Agreements in the coming year. The stabilization of the situation in Donbass significantly decreases the risk ...
... confrontation with the East. Understanding its value for the West and relying on significant successes in implementing socioeconomic reforms, Ukraine will more insistently demand a speedy integration into the bodies of NATO and the European Union. Although Ukraine is unlikely to become a full member of either the European Union or NATO in the foreseeable future, cooperation with these organizations will become intense and multifaceted.
Andrey Kortunov:
Europe and Russia: Four Scenarios for the New Cycle
If this scenario materializes, then for Russian authorities, Ukraine will become not merely a major nuisance, but a fundamental existential challenge. The prospect of Ukraine inevitably joining NATO entails the intensive militarization ...
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
The ... ... and the West since the end of the Cold War, growing animosities between Russia and Ukraine over Crimea and south-eastern Ukraine, and the transformation of the Ukrainian... ... statehood. Ukraine is the nexus where the interests of such key players as Russia, the European Union and the United States have clashed, making this purely domestic crisis...
