By Brian E. Frydenborg, February 26th, 2015 (updated February 27th-28th)
Originally published on LinkedIn Pulse here
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One of the sad things about looking at current commentary about Russia, America, and the state of their relationship is the lack of measured and reasoned...
During the last part of 2014, optimism steadily raised over the unusually low prices of oil and their allegedly positive economic effects on the economies of oil importing countries. Although some evidence points in this direction, a more thorough assessment leads unfortunately to different conclusions.
The Deceptive Optimism
Late in ...
Undoubtedly, the plummeting of oil price is one of the most observed and debated topics of this year's end, both for its economic and political implications. These kind of events are hardly ever random, or driven by market forces alone. In this article I will examine the reasons ...
... overthrow of Saddam, about ¼ of Iraqi output was lost in comparison to year 2000, which means it will be a major challenge with the current difficult political climate.
Europe Refines A Meltdown
As a consequence of recent energy trends the European oil refineries are in systemic crisis. USA’s reduction of gasoline imports due to shale and commissioning of highly effective oil refineries in the Middle East/Asia has filled many rooms with pessimism. The period of 2004-2008 branded by LUKoil ...
... Mitrova highlights (in reference to Simon Pirani's recent work), Central Asia has completely moved towards the Chinese market and we ought to blame the squabbling between the EU and Russia over gas matters, as whilst these were ongoing the gas/oil potential of Central Asia was lured towards China. As we are currently seeing the infrastructure is being reversed away from Europe to Asia, yet again underlining that EU's actions were once again detrimental to its energy security with an additional cost of diminished relations with Russia.
Russia's Uncertain Footing and China's Roar:
As Mitrova ...
... routes. Simply having the same price across the board is absurd or trying to push some revolutionary policies that do not reflect market peculiarities. The market must be given time to evolve naturally.
Giant-Shtokman Gas Field - Will be Idle:
As Europe is proving to be a difficult market for Russia due to price liberalization, long-term contracts decline and oil-pegged prices rejection, the Shtokman field was postponed and its development was rejected, perhaps, for the next 10 years. Also, as the US market is quickly becoming self-sustainable due to the Shale Revolution, the Shtokman gas can no longer be ...
... frequent contributor to both UK and international press, including International Herald Tribune, The Guardian and The Moscow Times.
*Interviewer: Igor Ossipov / Date: 30/04/2013
Crisis of Capitalism, Identity and Finance
In the last two years Europe has lingered around recession with little light at the end of the tunnel. Is someone, or something, responsible for this crisis? Perhaps, is it a virtue of the capitalist system, its agents, or other factors?
The continuous eurozone turmoil provides a microcosm for the wider global economy. It has variously been described as a financial or a fiscal crisis, caused either by an over-leveraged banking system or by unsustainable budget deficits and sovereign debt. But perhaps with the exception ...
... or Reality. Also, please feel free to comment or leave a like, its always more productive to engage in a discussion!
Route 2030: Dream or Reality?
The rising politicization of Euro-Russian energy relations is casting doubt over future volumes of oil and gas supply to Europe, according to two researchers from Masaryk University. Their recent article evaluates the difference between policy ambitions shown by Russia and the official “Energy Strategy to 2030” (ES-2030) publication; released in 2009. M. Mareš ...
... positive side, although Turkmenistan has increased production of gas in 2013 - it has been relatively small at 3bcm, with also internal consumption growning quicker, which will lower exports to China, or potentially to the EU market (See: NaturalGasEurope). Also, political turmoil in Egypt could potentially shift it to be a net-importer with Russia dubbed as a potential supplier (See: VoiceofRussia). A lot will depends on Egyptian government as like with many countries energy imports are tightly regulated. Finally, it is a ...
... – that is much more than $400 paid by Europe ($500 paid by Ukraine). Further, in 2016 US should begin exporting shale gas to Europe. Traditional energy suppliers will need to keep a close eye on these developments and they may well be forced to soon drop ... ... traditional product must be competitive so it does not miss the gravy train which may well soon pick up speed.
Igor Ossipov
Oil & Gas Eurasia Correspondent, Oil/Diesel Broker and RIAC Blogger.
