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According to European and Russian experts on the Middle East, use of force against Syria is fraught with dire consequences. On September 23, Russian International Affairs Council held a meeting of analysts from European Council of Foreign Relations and Russian Middle East experts. According to Daniel ...
Two-and-a-half-years into the Syrian conflict, the balance of power in the embattled state continues to evolve between the government of Bashar al-Assad and the opposition groups, composed of secularists, islamists, and Al Qaeda-trained jihadists. Since the beginning of the Damascus spring in March 2011, more than 100,000 Syrians fell victim to brutal violence, and more than 2 million fled the country. Western powers and the Arab world have, by and large, refrained from getting their feet entangled...
In light of the recent developments in Syria and the apparently imminent US military intervention, the blog will take a short break from its relatively academic style and its thematic focus in order to brainstorm and share some thoughts on the broader picture of what is happening in the geopolitical arena of the region. Dangerous Double Standards Bashar al-Assad has reportedly used chemical weapons to attack, essentially, his own people. The first, logically obvious question is why would Assad essentially...
... Member Vitaly Naumkin , Director of the RAS Institute for Oriental Studies, to talk about the probability of a military strike and its likely consequences. The media is increasingly anxious that a military attack on Syria may be the harbinger of a big Middle Eastern war. How would you assess the scale of the crisis, and what are your predictions for further developments? The forecast should be split into two portions. The first part concerns the situation around Syria in terms of the possibility of ...
... Maxim Bratersky , Head of the World Politics Department at the Higher School of Economics, about the U.S. position on Syria and the prospects for an attack on the country. Some pundits expect the Syria situation to escalate into a large-scale war in the Middle East. How would you assess the dimensions of the crisis? The crisis is clearly quite apparent. However, I would disagree with the experts you cite for two reasons. First, the civil war in Syria has been going on for over two years, and U.S. interference ...
In early 2011, the world witnessed a hitherto unseen and largely unexpected course of events in the Middle East. Following the eruption of protests ignited by Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation in Tunis, the entrenched dictatorships of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen collapsed in domino fashion. Whereas Tunisia and Libya have made considerable ...
One year after the utter failure of the U.S.-Russia “Reset,” the relationship between the two countries is gradually nearing its nadir. Beginning with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s message of encouragement to Russia’s opposition movement and democracy scholar Michael McFaul’s nomination as U.S. Ambassador to Moscow, the climate in U.S.-Russia relations started to deteriorate leading to USAID’s closure, open confrontation on the Syrian issue, and exchange...
... Air Force, and the U.S. Sixth Fleet. American military units have utilized the island during Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom. In addition, it can be used as a platform of special operations against terrorist cells in the wider Middle East region such as Syria and Iran. The geostrategic significance of the island is very important to American national interest. Moreover, the discovery of natural gas resources puts Cyprus as a major energy source country. Currently, the European ...
A Gold Mine for Russian Business Contrary to the established view in Russia, business in the UAE is not limited to oil, tourism and real estate. The United Arab Emirates is justly believed to be an attractive business centre for Russian companies. Why is the UAE attractive? When the United Arab Emirates got its independence from the United Kingdom in 1971, the backbone of its economy was oil production and export. Relying on its oil revenues, UAE authorities prepared the ground for the diversification...
... instability remains, and for as long the results of this “tectonic shift” remain unknown, external players can to some extent influence the events, forecast them and sometimes direct them to the right track. The report was drawn up as part of the “Middle East: Political Dynamics and Russia’s Interests” project organized by the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC). Authors: V.V. Naumkin (Lead Author), Corresponding Member, RAS, Dr. of History; A.G. Aksenenok, Ph.D. in Law; I.D. Zvyagelskaya,...
