... shameless stalking horse. The restoration of UAE diplomatic relations has not produced a lasting detente. Instead, it has established a machinery to drain untold billions of dollars from Tehran via capital flight.
Ivan Bocharov:
Persian Lessons: How Middle East War Will Change Gulf Monarchies
The 7,000‑Year Threshold
None of the above, however, captures the deepest layer of Iran’s strategic logic. That layer is civilizational.
Iranian civilization has existed for 5,000 to 7,000 years. It has survived Alexander's burning of Persepolis, the Arab conquest, the Mongol sackings, Turkic and Afghan invasions, colonial encroachment,...
... generating trust. On the other hand, losses for Russia will not be critical, though they may be sensitive in the way that Iran is a big neighbour. And on the South, Iran is a stakeholder in the North-South corridor, and if there is a change of power in Iran, we are not sure what would be the outcome for this project.
Ivan Bocharov:
Persian Lessons: How Middle East War Will Change Gulf Monarchies
Same with nuclear programme?
Same with nuclear programme, same with trade, which accelerated in the recent four years. And then another question is what kind of power will emerge in Iran? Would it be some kind ...
... how European countries had, over the course of 75 years of U.S. hegemony, lost the ability to think and act strategically, it still assumed that such capabilities remained inherent to the hegemon—the United States of America. The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran calls this assumption into question.
Until now, Washington’s support for Israel has been driven primarily by its own global interests. In 2025, and especially in 2026, the United States ceded its role as the initiator of the joint attack on Iran ...
... agreements may be temporary, it is already possible to recap interim outcomes including for the Gulf monarchies which managed to wait out the hot phase of the confrontation and avoid direct involvement in the hostilities.
The current conflict in the Middle East is significantly different from the 12-Day War of last year, with a bigger number of killings among Iran’s political and military leadership, strikes against the Islamic Republic’s energy infrastructure, and a number of other distinctive features. But perhaps the most unexpected development has been that Tehran’s retaliation has been directed ...
It is difficult to expect the “golden age” promised by Trump to emerge from the upcoming negotiations
Trump ultimately found a way out of the situation he had created for himself by embarking on the reckless venture of war against Iran. The threat of annihilating an entire civilization appears to have served as a cover for his withdrawal from the battlefield.
Indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington, conducted in recent months through intermediaries—primarily Pakistan,...
On April 2, 2026, a roundtable “Dynamics of the Middle East Conflict: Scenarios and Forecasts” was held at the Izvestia Multimedia Information Center
On April 2, 2026, a roundtable “Dynamics of the Middle East Conflict: Scenarios and Forecasts” was held at the Izvestia Multimedia Information Center.
During the discussion the experts addressed the current state of the US-Israel war on Iran, possible scenarios and date of its ending. Some uncertainties were also discussed such as the US policy and stability of the Islamic Republic political system.
Participants:
Vladimir Morozov, Vice-Rector for Human Resources, Professor at the Department ...
... those of any adversary the United States has confronted directly in recent decades. It is a large, resilient state with deep strategic depth and a capacity to inflict serious disruption on global trade and energy flows.
This last point is critical. Iran’s geographic position gives it leverage that few countries possess. Even limited escalation could threaten shipping routes and economic stability far beyond the Middle East, directly affecting the interests of the United States and its allies. That reality alone complicates any attempt at a quick, clean victory.
Moreover, the political context is very different from past US interventions. The current display ...
The Hormuz crisis is not merely a regional conflict but a case study in the limits of conventional military power
The escalating conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States has directly impacted the security dynamics of the Strait of Hormuz. The geography of strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz makes it both a vulnerability and a geopolitical leverage. The strait is deep and wide enough ...
... of Global Alignment
Tehran’s decision to direct the main wave of its retaliatory strikes at the UAE during the first week of the 2026 conflict was driven precisely by its perception of this Gulf state as a key conduit for Israeli interests in the Middle East. This was
stated
unequivocally by former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who expressed the view that “the UAE and Israel are one and the same.”
The first week of the 2026 conflict with Iran demonstrated that the UAE continues to operate in close alignment with Israel, despite ...
... several interrelated factors:
1. Lack of Clear Justification
Many governments remain unconvinced by the rationale for war. Without a widely accepted casus belli, support becomes politically and diplomatically costly.
2. Fear of Regional Escalation
The Middle East is already a volatile region. A full-scale conflict involving Iran risks drawing in multiple actors, including non-state groups, potentially leading to a wider wars.
3. Economic Considerations
Global economies are deeply interconnected. Disruptions in the Gulf can impact oil prices, trade routes, and financial markets,...
