... Iran War and the Fracturing of Global Alignment
Tehran’s decision to direct the main wave of its retaliatory strikes at the UAE during the first week of the 2026 conflict was driven precisely by its perception of this Gulf state as a key conduit for Israeli interests in the Middle East. This was
stated
unequivocally by former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who expressed the view that “the UAE and Israel are one and the same.”
The first week of the 2026 conflict with Iran demonstrated that the UAE continues ...
Even if Israel and the Trump administration entered the battle against Iran together, there is probably a difference in their perspectives on the goals of the current conflict
This wave of escalation would be distinct from its predecessors in 2024 and 2025,...
... prospect of major buyers from the world majority countries refusing to import Russian oil is being postponed. US allies in the Middle East will need to replenish their arsenals and ammunition, particularly air defence systems. This could indirectly impact ... ... the intensity of the fighting subsides. Tehran is also at risk from the fact that it has entered the conflict with the US and Israel virtually alone in diplomacy. There are no binding alliance commitments from other powers to defend the country.
On the ...
... United States has been consistent in backing its allies, including Israel and – to a lesser extent – certain Arab countries, but this commitment has been increasingly at odds with its declared intention to scale back the American presence in the Middle East.
As for the Iranian and Israeli strikes on Qatar, these incidents demonstrated that the decades-old strategy of the Gulf’s Arab monarchies to outsource their security proved to be unreliable. In this regard, this is not a matter of technology or politics. It can be posited ...
... Ansar Allah’s rhetoric—particularly in their condemnation of the Saudi and Emirati military intervention in Yemen, which they labeled an “unprovoked aggression” orchestrated by their common enemies, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Israel (referred to as the “Trio of Evil” discourse) to establish a strategic foothold in the Red Sea as part of a New Middle East project hostile to Arab interests—now became the all-dominant theme. The Palestinian solidarity campaign, “The Battle of the Promised Victory and Sacred Jihad,” permeated every policy sphere under the unrecognized regime, fully occupying ...
On November 3–7, 2025, a group of Russian experts on Middle Eastern affairs visited Israel. The visit was organized by the Embassy of the State of Israel in the Russian Federation
On November 3–7, 2025, a group of Russian experts on Middle Eastern affairs visited Israel. The visit was organized by the Embassy of the State of Israel ...
... what extent these ongoing changes will impact the stability of Israel’s position in regional politics.
It’s possible that Israel, having transformed internally and renewed its relations with the United States, will remain an outlier in the grand Middle East concert.
The fact that the system of relations between Israel and its main international partner is changing is no longer in doubt. The reason for these changes is not only material. As events in recent years have shown, the United States is capable of devoting resources to military and political support ...
... security landscape. The attacks have called into question the fundamental strategic presumptions that have served as the foundation for Gulf Arab state security doctrines for the past fifty years. With unpredicted consequences, such as divergent views of Israel and Iran, this is also compelling introspection at a challenging moment for the larger region.
Entanglement or Empowerment? New Security Paradigm for Gulf States
Extra-Regional Actors in the Middle East. RIAC Report
For decades, the fundamental strategic presumption among the Arab states of the Gulf has been that the United States is the ultimate guarantor. Washington has been seen as
key
to the security of the Gulf. The U.S. military presence ...
... continues or intensifies qualitatively with the involvement of other actors. This might involve a threat to European interests, a disruption of energy supply, and an unstable security crisis.
Israel and Europe: Union or Discord?
Extra-Regional Actors in the Middle East. RIAC Report
When Israel launched its first strike against Iran on June 13, most European responses were de-escalation appeals with implicit support for Israel. In a
conversation
with the Israeli president, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
described
...
... impotence of the United Nations Security Council incapable or reaching consensus among its permanent members on how to stop the Israeli strikes. It would also render misplaced Russia’s proposals regarding building a collective security system in the Middle East. The Russia-Israel relations would likely deteriorate even further. A major disruption of the global energy trade may trigger a global economic slowdown or even a recession that is clearly not in Russia’s strategic interests.
One cannot rule out that the ultimate ...
