... agreements that are subject to ratification—which have long constituted the structure of arms control—are also on their way out. Not only is it difficult and perhaps even impossible to ratify any national agreement today, especially with regards to nuclear weapons, the ongoing U.S.-Russia confrontation further complicates this process. Under such strained conditions, whether either side is able to guarantee compliance remains an open question. But the fates of the INF and ABM treaties suggest that ...
The visit of John Bolton to Moscow attracted attention in connection with the announcement of possible US withdrawal from the INF Treaty. This is undoubtedly an important decision that will have major consequences for Russia, for the European security, and for strategic stability. There was a lot of talk about this, the debates will continue, but it is important to note that this issue was not the only one that was discussed during Bolton’s talks in Moscow. Moreover, it seems that there were no negotiations...
Moscow needs to remain calm and hold back emotions. U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty won’t compromise Russia’s security, which rests on the pillars of nuclear deterrence and mutually assured destruction.
One could basically anticipate the Trump Administration’s decision to withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF. It’s in line with the U.S. president’s general approach to foreign policy: he renounces agreements that he believes to be unfavorable to the United States...
... relations between Moscow and Ankara. This topic is not only extremely relevant (and will remain so for years to come), but it is also quite voluminous and ambitious. For this reason, the authors propose focusing on the following four main issues: terrorism, nuclear weapons, the Syrian crisis and the security architecture in the Middle East.
At the beginning of 2010, Russia and Turkey had different views on the situation in the region. However, a certain degree of political involvement in the affairs of the ...
... for early missile warning systems and assessing the probability of a missile launch could give the military command of a nuclear power extra time to decide on a retaliatory strike and its scale. New technologies could also increase the precision of nuclear weapons and the effectiveness of missile defence, improve the security of nuclear facilities, and provide better intelligence information.
Leonid Kovachich:
China Missed the Industrial Revolution, But It Won’t Miss the Digital One
At the same ...
... this next phase to start, the two countries must agree on ceilings but also improve communication [
2
] (including military-to-military) and begin work on precise, agreed, and approved (!) definitions for terminology and broader concepts related to nuclear weapons policy and strategy: deterrence, strategic stability etc. The latter process may start as a Track II discussion.
Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky:
INF Treaty: More than Just an Agreement
The INF is a tougher topic. Both countries have officially ...
... latest United States Nuclear Posture Review and other policy papers, as well as Russia’s announcement regarding the development of new nuclear delivery vehicles. China is also developing its own SNF. To assess the role and place of various types of nuclear weapons in the overall structure of nuclear deterrence, we have developed a simplified model of SNF “interaction” for first, launch-under-attack, and second strikes.
As baseline data for our analysis, we used reviews of the world’s nuclear ...
... the Russian Federation have a shared responsibility to work together along with other nations to clarify our differences and mitigate these risks. Progress can only be made through the engagement of leaders. Moreover, in every country that possesses nuclear weapons, anything relating to nuclear policy is inherently “presidential.”
The reality today is that we have entered a new era, in which a fateful error—triggered by an accident, miscalculation, or blunder—could trigger a nuclear catastrophe....
... risking further proliferation of weapons grade highly enriched uranium (HEU).
Furthermore, Kazakhstan is an example of how a country that willingly denuclearizes can prosper economically and politically. After Kazakhstan got rid of its large repository of nuclear weapons and closed down the world’s largest testing site, both inherited after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country became a mecca for foreign and multilateral investment. It was also better able to equip its conventional army
and ...
... there was a certain system and a culture of dialogue about the nuclear sphere. At some point the status quo has changed dramatically, apparently not only as a result of a worsening political situation, but also due to a newly emerging attitude towards nuclear weapons in general.
Strategic nuclear weapons are perceived as something abstract and incapable of causing real harm, because they will never be used, at least not intentionally. On the other hand, the psychological barrier for using tactical ...
