Ivan Timofeev

RIAC Report #31 / 2017

RIAC and CSR Report

The ELN-RIAC Special Report

Report No. 24/2016

It is possible that at some point we will see a special Brazilian model for solving the problem of “weaponised interdependence”

The possibility of a return to extreme-era dynamics cannot be dismissed

We live in the realities of 2025, when increased efforts do not result in proportional damage

External political factors may have a growing influence on Russian-Chinese economic relations

The prospect of these measures influencing Moscow’s political decisions remains negligible

Given past experience, it would be strange to expect support for the resumption of Nord Stream from the US

Today we are only witnessing the beginning of large-scale changes in US tariff policy

The American system is capable of producing Trump. But it can also swing quite successfully in the opposite direction without significant risk to its own basic foundations

In any scenario of Russian-American relations during the presidency of Donald Trump, the legislative framework of the sanctions policy towards Moscow will outlast the tenure of the current president…

The achieved results and existing limitations create an incentive for Washington and Moscow to discuss a potential peace. Nevertheless, both sides retain the material resources necessary to sustain…

Restarting the architecture of missile and nuclear arms control in a Russian-American or broader format appears highly improbable

If Ukraine fails to find a way out of the conflict, even after enduring significant damage and losses, it risks further erosion of its sovereignty

We will see a trend of increasing pressure from the US on India and Indian companies to increase barriers and costs for trade with Russia

We are not angels, and therefore we cannot teach others from above. What we can do is think about a better future and create it together, instead of relying on of others

Even if the parties manage to reach agreements they will be viewed by all participants as a temporary respite and will not systematically resolve the contradictions that gave rise to the crisis

The process of lifting sanctions will be slow, and the legal mechanisms of unilateral US sanctions against Syria may remain in force for years and decades, despite political changes

Despite the crisis of multilateral diplomacy, preserving its supporting structures seems necessary

Kiev is the most vulnerable party in any development of the situation—both radical and basic. The question is the price for all participants. The price for Ukraine will be the highest

Why do countries that initiate sanctions reduce them? How long-term and sustainable is such a process?

The United States and its allies have serious cause for concern

The concept of secondary sanctions remains vague. It has acquired not only and not even so much a legal or political character, but a psychological one

Trump’s victory will be undesirable for Tehran, but it is difficult to call it mortally dangerous for the country

The fate of the future world order still depends on the ability of the 'troika' to control rivalry and on the results of such rivalry

The figure of the U.S. president is unlikely to play a big role in Russian-American relations

US-Chinese relations will most likely follow a course of controlled rivalry over the next four years

Moscow’s policy of building transaction mechanisms independent of the Western financial infrastructure will reduce the ability of Western countries to use their financial capabilities for political…

The Eurasian economic security system can become a flexible and decentralised set of mechanisms that reduce “dependence on interdependence,” giving rise to a new reality of international economic…

Quite unclear document vs Specific and clear proposals

The more casualties both sides suffer, the greater the intensity of hostilities and the closer approach to the threshold of nuclear use. In this scenario, there will be no victors.

New legal mechanisms on both sides cement the economic barriers that, most likely, will last for years and decades

Review of the Dr. S. Jaishankar’s book “Why Bharat Matters”

Is the human mind truly limitless?

The principle of indivisibility of security, not implemented in the Euro-Atlantic project, can and should become key for the Eurasian structure

Sanctions are presented more as an instrument of causing damage, that is, an instrument of war, rather than an instrument for achieving political goals, or what could be called an instrument of…

Taking into account the characteristics of BRICS, including its high flexibility due to weak institutionalisation and attractiveness for developing countries despite ongoing disagreements between…

The latest wave of sanctions does not bring qualitative changes—their impact on the Russian economy and its relations with foreign partners is unlikely to be fundamental

The tit-for-tat logic will continue to dominate relations between Russia and the West

The main result of 2023 has been the transition to a new normal in foreign and domestic policy in Russia

Success in Venezuela is important for American diplomacy

The cost of a conflict with Russia for the United States will be measured not only and not so much by support for Ukraine, but also by the enormous cost of containing the Russian-Chinese tandem

The termination of hybrid wars and their transformation into a hybrid peace is the fundamental problem of modern diplomacy

Another indicator of China’s containment in the field of high technologies is President Biden’s new Executive Order “On Addressing United States Investments in Certain National Security…

The regime of Western sanctions against Russia is likely to continue for decades. Therefore, investing in diversification is in many ways a non-alternative strategy

If the practice becomes widespread, another nail will be driven into the coffin of human ties between Russia and the EU

Such sanctions are unlikely to ensure the blockade of Russia desired by the Western initiators. This was not achieved even with respect to Iran, whose economy is smaller than Russia's

Аn increasingly optimal strategy for entrepreneurs is a complete withdrawal from the Western markets, the search for alternative suppliers in friendly countries, as well as reliable mechanisms for…

The main intrigue of the package was restrictive measures against foreign countries and organisations that interact with Russia

Russia’s preservation of its statehood and sovereignty again becomes the main stake of the conflict. The statehood of Ukraine is another stake

A response to Sergei Karaganov’s “A Difficult but Necessary Decision”

In relations between the Administration and Congress on Russia, there is still a relative consensus. Apparently, the Administration wants to keep a free hand in negotiations with Russia

Have emerging powers got the resources to reshape the world order?

The realism of foreign policy remains relevant

Russia’s Path to the ‘World Majority’

Friendly countries are still unlikely to be ready to act as “black knights” in the form which was acceptable in the 20th century. Russia must first of all rely on its own forces

The further escalation of sanctions against Russia is inevitable

In the modern world, only two countries can be distinguished which combine both significant material potential and their own political philosophy: the US and China

Even before February 2022, Brussels intended to significantly increase its capacity in the field of economic restrictions. The appointment of a special representative on sanctions is one of the…

The hope for a new type of international relations based on mutual benefit, unfortunately, is unlikely to materialise in the foreseeable future

Sanctions now become exclusively a mechanism for causing damage

We can talk about the relative novelty of the sanctions in terms of the number and intensity of the measures applied. However, for a number of qualitative characteristics, they contain patterns that…

The conflict between Russia and the West is likely to drag on for decades, regardless of how and along exactly what lines the conflict in Ukraine ends

The experience of US law enforcement practice shows that there will be violations of the sanctions regime, and US regulators have developed mechanisms for detecting them

Russia amid the current conditions has no choice but to radically restructure the mechanisms of its financial and trade relations with foreign countries

In the context of Euro-Atlantic solidarity amid Russia’s opposition, the issue of EU financial sovereignty in relations with the United States is likely to fade into oblivion

In fact, the sellers’ market is being changed into the buyers’ market by artificial political methods rather than for economic reasons

The door will close, but the window will remain open for a time being

Relations between Russia and Ukraine are at risk of entering the ranks of long-term conflicts, similar to relations between India and Pakistan, or North and South Korea

It is necessary to be ready for a scenario where the property of individuals and structures in the EU is confiscated, as well as their criminal prosecution in certain EU countries for violating…

In the context of the sanctions tsunami, Russia will have to face the good old practice of bans and “jarligs”, recalling the experience of the Horde

Reliable and uninterrupted maritime transit of people and cargo to the Kaliningrad Region has become a particularly pressing issue

The decline of the Russian economy is not beneficial to China

Sanctions against Patriarch Kirill make the conflict between Russia and the West a clash of religious values

The pacification of Russia for the West has become a task that clearly goes beyond the boundaries of the post-Soviet and even the Euro-Atlantic space

The next packages will be less spectacular, but they will be detrimental to specific businesses and areas of the economy

The victorious march of the authorities of the US, the EU, and other countries over the fragments of Russian property gives rise to legitimate fears among investors from other countries

Today’s top three challenges Russia has to tackle

For most of Russia’s neighbours, the conflict between Moscow and Kiev opens up great opportunities

The inclusion of sanctions in the formula for a compromise on Ukraine is quite possible. Total pessimism is hardly desirable here

The new stage of the Ukrainian crisis will have global consequences. For some, it will bring short and medium-term costs, and very significant ones. For many, however, it will create opportunities to…

The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario

The introduction of amendments to the United Kingdom's sanctions legislation on Russia on the day of the visit was unlikely to achieve any results other than prompting cold restraint from Moscow

In 2008, four paths were available to Russia but in 2022, one prevails

The main task for Russia is to avoid excessive overexertion and, at the same time, not get bogged down in a costly confrontation, maintaining and using levers of pressure on the West where its own…

The most realistic scenario for the near future is that the collective West “ties up” Moscow’s demands for European security in endless consultations and agreements

The key intrigue of the coming year is the situation around Ukraine

No signs of an easing are foreseen for the key targets of US sanctions

The December round of sanctions continued the course of tough measures. Now the Belarusian leader faces two basic scenarios: low profile or a new round of escalation

In the United States, there is a renewed discussion about the advisability of expanding sanctions on Russian sovereign debt

The costs of a possible war between Russia and Ukraine far outweigh the benefits. The question arises—to whom and under what conditions is this scenario beneficial?

In the near term, the collective West will remain a serious military-political and regulatory challenge for Russia. Overestimation of the degree of its extinction and underestimation of the existing…

Russia and the EU currently seem to be nowhere near even embarking on a path towards “Cold Partnership”. The EU and Russia will not be able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the…

Getting back to the deal will be difficult. It will be even more difficult to keep it

Restrictive measures against the Taliban now affect the country as a whole