... unlikely to be the last—unless the cost of the current invasion proves prohibitive for all parties involved. The situation offers several important lessons for Russia.
Ivan Timofeev:
Military Operation Against Iran: A Realistic Scenario?
Lesson 1: Sanctions are followed by the use of military force
The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. While Iran has withstood this economic pressure, the damage has been significant. It grew further as Washington succeeded ...
... helped overcome a protracted economic crisis. The next stress test began in 2022, amid a severe setback in relations between Russia and the “collective West”. Contrary to expectations of a collapse in Russian-Indian trade due to the risk of secondary sanctions, India’s role in Russian foreign economic relations has increased manifold. It is noteworthy that the declarations of the summits of the two countries’ leaders have focused on specific economic objectives and hardly touched on political ...
... given that external actors play a key role in them. This is why the developments of recent weeks, especially the steps taken by the United States, are very important for Syria and the region. In this article, we will examine what the easing of U.S. sanctions could mean for Damascus, the Middle East and Russia.
U.S. sanctions relief
Extra-Regional Actors in the Middle East. RIAC Report
On May 13, during his Middle East tour, U.S. President Donald Trump announced the intention to start lifting all ...
... criticism of Israeli military actions in Gaza, in the West Bank or in the South of Lebanon are going to be softer. Second, the US positions on Iran are going to get even tougher, which means that JCPOA will not be resurrected from its grave and the US sanctions against Tehran will not be lifted. Third, Trump is clearly committed to continue his efforts to promote the Abraham Accords further assisting Israel in building relations with major Arab states, including Saudi Arabia. Trump will also try to ...
... 24 of this year
.
Cooperation with Russia reduces North Korea’s international isolation. The United States has very few tools it can use to influence both sides.
The use of military force against nuclear powers is risky and dangerous, and economic sanctions against both countries make little sense given that they are already subject to large-scale restrictions.
Russia’s rapprochement with the DPRK can be explained by at least three factors. The first and most significant is the grave crisis of ...
... diplomacy with regards to Russia. By passing PL 115-44 (CAATSA) bill, Congress incorporated Barack Obama's executive orders on Ukraine and digital security into federal law, denying the president the ability to rescind them or remove individuals from sanctions lists without congressional approval. CAATSA also gave the president the authority to use a fairly broad range of restrictive measures. The administration responded pragmatically. Trump signed CAATSA and in 2018, with Executive Order 13849, ...
... rate, jumping from $12 billion to $65 billion in two years, with crude oil accounting for the lion’s share of this growth. Initially, Western countries tried to cut off this flow, but Russian big business demonstrated a phenomenal ability to dodge sanctions: they used shell or fly-by-night companies in third countries and shadow fleets, along with other tricks. Indian big business provided much help in establishing bypass routes. In the end, this strategy bore fruit: Western political and economic ...
... North Korean students and postgraduates in Russian universities as well as for improving North Korean medical industry and medical technology. In the author’s opinion, although some medical equipment is labeled as dual-use goods and is subject to sanctions, the opening of a Russian medical center in Pyongyang could significantly improve the situation.
Andrey Kortunov:
The Cold War Never Ended in Asia
Yet the most important
document
by far is
the Treaty on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership ...
... West remains firmly committed to disrupt this trend and the Western pressure on Beijing is constantly growing. Not surprisingly, the Chinese private sector is getting increasingly concerned about the scope of the likely negative impact that secondary sanctions might have on their business prospects. After the European Union had introduced its 12
th
package of restrictive measures against Moscow, a number of the leading China’s banks became reluctant to accept dollar payments from Russia; as a result,...
... existing world order built on the authority of the UN and non-proliferation of nuclear weapons. Moscow has rather tried to play by the established international rules, and although Russian and U.S. diplomats could argue at length about the extent of sanctions following another nuclear test or missile launch, the idea that every step by the DPRK toward becoming a nuclear power would generate opposition was never questioned.
However, since the late 2000s and even more so since the early 2010s, the ...
