Washington has many allies, but there is no sign of active support from them. Russia’s position completes the diplomatic puzzle that has currently taken shape, and Minister Arakchi’s visit to Russia reinforces it
The visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi to Russia once again raises questions about Moscow’s position regarding the conflict between Iran on one hand, and the United States and Israel on the other. The Iranian minister’s trip should come as no surprise. Russia is a major...
If the four countries do not establish a formal framework and a shared command structure, the Quadrilateral Coalition runs a risk of being driven by events and unable to sustain pace in peacetime
On April 17, 2026, the foreign ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan
met
alongside of the Antalya Diplomacy Forum. While deputy ministers met for the first time on April 14 in Islamabad, the foreign ministers from these nations met for the third time in a single month (the first
meeting...
While war may significantly reshape the Middle East, it will not alter the capabilities of global powers
The de-escalation of the conflict between Israel and the United States, on the one hand, and Iran, on the other—as occurred in June 2025—is usually accompanied by triumphant declarations from all sides. Even the Gulf Arab monarchies, which have become unintended victims of a war not of their making, proclaim victory. Yet, as was also the case in June 2025, such statements do not mean that the...
Dmitriy Trenin: Russia and China could form the core of a new type of coalition, better equipped to counter hegemonic powers and to bring closer a more balanced and equitable world order
In about a month, President Vladimir Putin is expected to visit China. In preparation for the trip, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently traveled to Beijing. The visit will take place in a year marking the 30th anniversary of the establishment of the strategic partnership and cooperation between the two countries...
It may be more prudent for Russia to engage the Gulf states as individual actors rather than as a cohesive bloc
Since 1981—the year the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was established—the Arab world has frequently heard, and still hears, albeit less frequently today, slogans such as “Our Gulf is One.” Likewise, whenever the Gulf region faces a crisis, prominent media headlines routinely ask: “What are Gulf policies?”, “How will the Gulf states confront this challenge?”, or “What will the Gulf response...
Iran’s Toll System in the Context of Wartime Logic and Civilizational Memory
Introduction
On April 17, 2026, Iran announced that the Strait of Hormuz was open for business—but not for free. Tehran declared that transit fees would be imposed on all vessels passing through the world's most critical oil chokepoint. What followed was not a negotiation over dollars and cents, but a revelation of a deeper strategic logic, one rooted not in quarterly calculations but in civilizational memory. This analysis...
Interview with Ivan Timofeev for Brasil de Fato and Forum Geopolitica
Despite Pakistan’s leading role in diplomatic mediation efforts between the US and Iran, Russia appears to be playing an important role behind the scenes. The visit by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (14–15 April) to Beijing—to whom many attribute the real driving force behind the negotiations in Islamabad—was accompanied by numerous telephone calls to his counterparts in Iran, the UAE, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. It could...
On April 15, 2026, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), in cooperation with the Synergia Foundation (Bangalore, India), held a roundtable titled “The Middle East Crisis: Implications for Russia and India”
On April 15, 2026, the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), in cooperation with the Synergia Foundation (Bangalore, India), held a roundtable titled “The Middle East Crisis: Implications for Russia and India.” The event brought together representatives of government institutions...
“Cold Peace” with Iran and Economic Diversification
The United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran have concluded a two-week truce. According to U.S. President Donald Trump, the United States has received a 10-point proposal from Iran that could serve as a working basis for negotiations.
Although the conflict cannot yet be considered resolved, and the ceasefire agreements may be temporary, it is already possible to recap interim outcomes including for the Gulf monarchies which managed to wait...
Dmitriy Trenin: Eighty years after the end of the World War II, the main threat of an armed conflict once again emanates for us from Europe
The United States will not leave NATO. The president cannot do this unilaterally, and the Senate would not allow it. Trump is frightening Europeans, but his real goals are to shift the bulk of the financial burden onto Europe and to reduce America's military commitments. The shift is happening—grudgingly, but it is happening.
Europe cannot create its own military...
