... (INF) Treaty in 2019 and the Treaty on Open Skies the following year. In response to Western pursuit of Russia’s “strategic defeat” amid the Ukraine conflict, Moscow in 2023 suspended its participation in the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) and left the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE). In 2023, Russia also revoked ratification of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT).
Today, the three main pillars of the nuclear arms control system are under threat....
... accumulated problems in this sphere are not related to recent tensions.
Media reports that express hope for positive outcomes from the ongoing Russia–U.S. dialogue often raise one issue: the looming expiration of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or New START, signed in Prague in 2010 [
1
]. During Donald Trump’s first presidential term, Russia failed to negotiate with the U.S. either a replacement agreement or an
extension
of the existing one. That extension was eventually achieved under the ...
... and the undermining of the principle of equal and indivisible security—evidenced by crises in conventional arms control, NATO’s strikes on Yugoslavia, and the alliance’s eastward expansion—strategic stability faced mounting pressure. The 2010 New START Treaty marked the last significant achievement in nuclear arms control.
Amid the escalating security crisis following the events in Ukraine in 2014, Russia redoubled its efforts to maintain a balance of power in the missile and nuclear sphere....
Future belongs to the dialogue of the Nuclear Five?
The steps taken by the parties following Russia’s suspension of the New START, signed in Prague in 2010, as well as statements made by key officials, make it possible to offer a cautious forecast of the medium-term future of arms control between the two leading nuclear superpowers.
February freeze
Prokhor Tebin:
Predicting ...
... strategic stability issues of the Euro-Atlantic Security Leadership Group (EASLG) took place.
The discussion focused on the following issues: prospects for strengthening strategic stability, taking into account the recent extension of Russia-the U.S. New START Treaty, non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, new confidence-building measures in the nuclear field, and possible measures to limit the qualitative arms race. On the Russian side, the discussion was attended by Yevgeny Buzhinsky, RIAC Vice President,...
... come to some kind of agreement. This does not mean one side making concessions. There are many areas where negotiations and agreements no doubt meet the long-term interests of both countries.
Arms control
First, there is arms control. Extending the New START Treaty without any additional conditions meets the security interests of both sides. All that is needed for this is the political will of Moscow and Washington. Extending the Treaty would not mean that much for international security in and ...
... foreign policy. This included
renegotiating
the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) into the United States-Mexico-Canada-Agreement (USMCA),
pulling
the U.S. out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations, and even refusing to extend New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) or negotiate a new disarmament treaty with the Russian Federation.
On top of that, Trump’s administration and foreign policy pulled the U.S. away from the world stage. For example, the
U.S. pulled out
of ...
... conversation on the sidelines of the 13th meeting of the Supervisory Board of the International Luxembourg Forum on Preventing Nuclear Catastrophe, Aleksey Arbatov answered questions from RIAC Expert Ilya Kramnik about the prospects for maintaining the New START Treaty and other developments in the field of nuclear non-proliferation. One of the critical reasons for having this conversation again is the need to consider the principle, recent political development—the results of the U.S. election.
...
... be no winner in a nuclear war. However, confirmation from the Kremlin and the White House in today’s far more complicated and dangerous international situation would certainly have a positive significance. Another proposal involves prolonging the New START immediately and without any pre-conditions, while simultaneously launching intensive consultations on a broad range of strategic stability issues. There are other proposals that are brought to the notice of the political leadership in both countries ...
Should the New Start expire, it brings with it the death of an entire tradition of established bilateral agreements between the world’s two nuclear superpowers
As John Bolton said, “Why extend the flawed system [New START] just to say you have a treaty?”
...
