On September 13, 2022, after a summer break, a regular online international expert dialog on Russia-NATO relations resumed its work, bringing together experts, former diplomats and military, public leaders from Russia, the USA,... ... were considered, as well as the prospects for resuming Russian-Ukrainian negotiations. In addition, the participants discussed scenarios for possible escalation of the conflict on the territory of Ukraine and ways to prevent it. The discussion was moderated ...
... costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation ... ... predicted three months ago can now be supplemented with another two.
Afterthought 1.
Moving towards a significant increase in NATO’s military presence in Eastern Europe. With a number of Western states blocking the airspace, the Kaliningrad Region can ...
The main task for Russia is to avoid excessive overexertion and, at the same time, not get bogged down ... .... Washington refused to accept Moscow’s demands for legally binding guarantees of NATO’s non-expansion, but indicated its readiness to discuss certain issues, such... ... future, we can expect the development of the situation according to one of the following scenarios.
The first scenario is “War”. Russia in this scenario will proceed from...
... significant successes in implementing socioeconomic reforms, Ukraine will more insistently demand a speedy integration into the bodies of NATO and the European Union. Although Ukraine is unlikely to become a full member of either the European Union or NATO in the foreseeable future, cooperation with these organizations will become intense and multifaceted.
Andrey Kortunov:
Europe and Russia: Four Scenarios for the New Cycle
If this scenario materializes, then for Russian authorities, Ukraine will become not merely a major nuisance, but a fundamental existential challenge. The prospect of Ukraine inevitably joining NATO entails the intensive militarization ...
... and the conflict’s total toll approached a million. A new wave of Syrian refugees swept through Turkey and flooded Europe. Russia blocked US and British resolutions on enforcing peace on Damascus in the UN Security Council nine times.
Eventually, the ... ... was completely paralyzed by the beginning of 2022.
In March 2022, American neoconservatives led by the ill but still active Senator John McCain demanded that the UN be disbanded and replaced with the global Democratic League that would include the United ...
