... disruptions. Iran now has a new political leadership, yet Tehran continues to resist. The results of the first round of the conflict suggest the following preliminary balance of gains and losses for the key participants.
Ivan Timofeev:
The Iranian Crisis and Russia: Seven Lessons
Israel
The country is at the forefront of the military operation against Iran. For Israel, the attack on Iran is a logical continuation of the long and irreconcilable struggle between the two countries. Israel has already achieved ...
... impoverishment of its population. Should Iran manage to endure this round of aggression, it is unlikely to be the last—unless the cost of the current invasion proves prohibitive for all parties involved. The situation offers several important lessons for Russia.
Ivan Timofeev:
Military Operation Against Iran: A Realistic Scenario?
Lesson 1: Sanctions are followed by the use of military force
The United States has imposed sanctions on Iran since the Islamic Revolution in 1979. While Iran has withstood ...
... begun to play a significant role in international relations
Autumn is usually a busy season in the nuclear sphere, and 2025 was no exception. In October, NATO held its Steadfast Noon nuclear exercises, followed by the U.S. Global Thunder drills and Russia’s strategic nuclear forces exercises. Developments did not end there: against the backdrop of these exercises, Russia
announced
tests of the
Burevestnik
nuclear-powered cruise missile and the
Poseidon
nuclear-powered torpedo, as well as the ...
... conflicts between monarchies, families, religions, states, and great powers. For thousands of years, wars have been occurring continuously and without interruption. The... ... example in European history. It has also indirectly had an important positive impact on international security. The two World Wars of the twentieth century were caused by the... ... outcome of the Cold War as a victory, the United States regarded itself as the winner and Russia as the defeated party—embracing the notion that “the winner takes all.”...
... possibility of a return to extreme-era dynamics cannot be dismissed
The Ukraine conflict may well pave the way for a larger scale Russia-NATO confrontation. While hard to fathom and with everything suggesting that the scenario remains quite unlikely, it relies ... ... designation as aggressor and consequent international isolation. The latter, while slightly reducing political costs, still permits accusations that Moscow violated the nuclear taboo first. However, apart from politics, other things are equally important. Both ...
Strategically, Russia has little to gain and a lot to lose in case the crisis goes deeper
In the early morning of June 24 US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran after twelve days of intense airstrikes. The United States itself actively ...
Report No. 99 / 2025
Report No. 99 / 2025
The following report focuses on the Middle Eastern policies of extra-regional actors and their transformation in changing conditions. It concentrates on studying the strategies pursued by Russia, the U.S., the EU, China and India in the Middle East. The report also examines how Middle Eastern countries perceive extra-regional actors as they aspire to build pragmatic and balanced relationships with external partners.
Extra-Regional Actors ...
The Trump administration will be no more successful in breaking the China-Russia partnership than its predecessor was two years ago
The recent World War II Victory Day celebration in Moscow attracted ... ... playing the role of a malicious spoiler in the China-Russia relationship. Could such a development contribute in any way to international security or even to the long-term strategic interests of the US itself? Not very likely - no nation can possibly ...
... change and upheaval – so, let’s make something of it!
„Schönheit ist überall ein gar willkommener Gast“ [1] (Goethe)
Russia with a reach: Peaceful grazing horses. Russia/Lithuania border near Rusnè.
(Summer 2023).
Multipolarity is a reality
... ... longer relevant. In particular, the EU must redefine itself. It can no longer hide behind the supposed protecting power, the USA.
Thinking bigger, sovereignty, autonomy and personal responsibility are required. The
continent of Europe encompasses more ...
... system will continue to weigh heavily on the prospects of normalization for the foreseeable future. Nevertheless, a window of opportunity for achieving peace remains open. The motivation to seize such opportunities may hinge on the interim outcomes Russia has achieved thus far and the potential scenarios that could unfold if hostilities persist.
Ivan Timofeev:
Three Years of Conflict: Results for Ukraine
Among the key results, the most striking is Russia’s demonstrated readiness to use force ...
