... mainly in Tripoli, unless an agreement is reached among militant groups in addition to Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, the USA and Russia. The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran. It is also expected that many MENA capitals will witness protests that would change the balance of power in the region. ...
What might be a “second option” for Russia in Syria?
The situation around Russia in Syria is up for debate. No doubt, Russia would like to lead a reconstruction effort in Syria, in harmony with all relevant partners, including the UN, the EU, the USA, China, India, Turkey, Iran, Israel, the Sunni Arab states including the Golf Council Countries (GCC-states), Egypt and Morocco. However, many of the parties on the list of wished-for partners are strongly hostile to each other, and it might therefore perhaps not be possible ...
... summit, the upcoming March municipal elections in Turkey were likely taken into account. Assad's offensive in Idlib can undermine the rating of the Justice and Development Party.
Increasing understanding of the real danger and the likelihood of the Russian-Iranian-Syrian campaign formation and solidification, may soon lead Turkey to acknowledge that it is better to be a part of this operation rather than retaining a passive observer status. On the way to Turkey, from the board of his plane, Erdogan admitted a joint military action against HTS.
“Joint operations can be ...
It is becoming increasingly more difficult for Moscow to retain its position as an honest, if not completely independent, broker
On February 14, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Sochi to discuss Syria and hold separate bilateral meetings. Recently, new developments have emerged that could prove dangerous if each state pursues its own hidden agenda. The three states depend on the Astana format for settling the Syrian issue.
By 2019, the Syrian ...
... little help as a partner in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Instead, Russia decided to rely on those regional powers which had actual influence on the situation in Syria. This led, in late 2016, to the proposal of the Astana format of Syrian negotiations, with Russia, Turkey and Iran acting as guarantors. The process began at the same time that Aleppo returned to the full control of the Syrian government forces. Given these developments in the Middle East, at the theoretical level, Russian researchers concluded that with the ...
... weak strategically.
The Turkish factor is also complex. Observers are under the impression that Ankara is currently manoeuvring between Moscow and Washington in a desperate attempt to secure a foothold in Syria. This much was evident at the summit on Syrian settlement between Russia, Turkey and Iran held in Tehran. On the one hand, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have successfully staved off the planned massive offensive in Idlib by the Syrian Army with support from Russia and Iran. On the other hand, Ankara has finally ...
... Rouhani. In addition,
Israeli sources claim
that on November 23, Director of the Foreign Intelligence Service of the Russian Federation Sergey Naryshkin visited Israel to “brief Israeli security officials following a meeting between the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Iran on reaching a political solution to the Syrian civil war.” It is such steps on the part of Moscow that perplex Tehran and prompt its concerns. Tehran still prefers to keep silent, but no longer harbours illusions about greater strategic affinity with Russia, as it may have seemed – particularly ...
... relations.
Turkish-Russian relations were once again tested by the assassination by a Turkish Islamist of the Russian ambassador to Ankara who was key to restoring Russian-Turkish relations. This incident took place just before the planned meeting of Turkey, Iran and Russia over the Syrian crisis and just after the UN Resolution on Aleppo in December 2016.
Now, U.S.-Russian relations have been tested once again by the April 2017
decision
of the Trump administration to fire 59 cruise missiles at a Syrian airbase on grounds that the ...
... cannot ignore the fact that Turkey recently held talks with Russia and Iran, allies that support the Bashar al-Assad regime. The words of Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yıldırım, who called for “a new page” to be opened in the history of Syria – one that would involve Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states – have also caused a stir. He also stated, for the first time, that he would not be against al-Assad being involved in the political process during a “transitional period,...
Turkey’s foreign policy in recent years has limited its room ... ....” The current policy aimed at normalizing relations with Russia, Israel and other countries reflects the change of the balance ... ... countries, especially on Turkey’s borders with Iraq and Syria, spelled new opportunities as well as risks.
The risks proved ... ... called by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and distanced it from Shiite Iran, another extremely important partner.
Normalization of Relations ...
