... influence over it and might move closer to Russia in order to balance this. Armenia, while more nationalistic than ever, can’t realistically refuse to unblock the corridors in perpetuity, so eventually it’ll be compelled to comply. As for trade, Russian companies are already active in the South Caucasus and can expand their businesses into Turkey and Iran with time.
Iran: Bolstering the Islamic Republic’s Balancing Act
With or without resolving their strategic dilemma in Syria that was earlier explained, the future of the Russian-Iranian relations seems bright, but it mustn’t be overhyped due ...
... their elite, but soft power among civil society does not appear to be too significant except in the tourism industry.
South Caucasus: Tricky Relations with Turkey
Andrey Kortunov:
Syria: In the Middle of a Long Cycle
It is here at the juncture between Russia, Turkey, and Iran where Moscow recently made the most impressive progress in the Ummah Pivot. Its peacekeeper deployment to parts of Azerbaijan’s Karabakh region as part of the
Moscow-mediated ceasefire agreement
between it and Armenia in November of last year ...
... external aid and progress in the intra-Syrian dialogue into a single stabilization package.
Maxim Suchkov:
Russia in the Middle East: “Be with Us — and Remain Yourself”
Another important set of issues raised by our Damascus partners pertains to Russia being “an ally for Syria, Israel, Iran and Turkey” in the continuing conflict and to what the nature of Russia–U.S. contacts is.
It is no secret that the foreign political services of both countries have always maintained a working exchange of current information. This is particularly true ...
... mainly in Tripoli, unless an agreement is reached among militant groups in addition to Turkey, the UAE, Qatar, Egypt, the USA and Russia. The impeachment process of US President Donald Trump and the US role in the MENA region would determine the future of conflicts in many countries starting from Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Libya and the future government in Lebanon, Iraq and Algeria, Turkey and Iran. It is also expected that many MENA capitals will witness protests that would change the balance of power in the region. ...
What might be a “second option” for Russia in Syria?
The situation around Russia in Syria is up for debate. No doubt, Russia would like to lead a reconstruction effort in Syria, in harmony with all relevant partners, including the UN, the EU, the USA, China, India, Turkey, Iran, Israel, the Sunni Arab states including the Golf Council Countries (GCC-states), Egypt and Morocco. However, many of the parties on the list of wished-for partners are strongly hostile to each other, and it might therefore perhaps not be possible ...
... leaders of Troika discussed "all steps", that is, all options on this issue.
With less than two months left until the next summit of the “Astana troika”, the situation in Idlib may prove to be a catalyst for positive change within the Russia-Iran-Turkey alliance, bringing intra-alliance cooperation to a whole new level, or it may trigger the onset of its collapse. Urging against such a split, Erdogan told his partners: "If we have passed the sea, we cannot drown ourselves in the river."
...
It is becoming increasingly more difficult for Moscow to retain its position as an honest, if not completely independent, broker
On February 14, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Sochi to discuss Syria and hold separate bilateral meetings. Recently, new developments have emerged that could prove dangerous if each state pursues its own hidden agenda. The three states depend on the Astana format for settling the ...
... in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Instead, Russia decided to rely on those regional powers which had actual influence on the situation in Syria. This led, in late 2016, to the proposal of the Astana format of Syrian negotiations, with Russia, Turkey and Iran acting as guarantors. The process began at the same time that Aleppo returned to the full control of the Syrian government forces. Given these developments in the Middle East, at the theoretical level, Russian researchers concluded that with the ...
... Turkish factor is also complex. Observers are under the impression that Ankara is currently manoeuvring between Moscow and Washington in a desperate attempt to secure a foothold in Syria. This much was evident at the summit on Syrian settlement between Russia, Turkey and Iran held in Tehran. On the one hand, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have successfully staved off the planned massive offensive in Idlib by the Syrian Army with support from Russia and Iran. On the other hand, Ankara has finally ...
... in Astana process. Are these not better descriptions of the summit, especially when seen through the eyes of other parties of the Astana “trio”?
Andrey Kortunov:
From Astana to Geneva with a Stop in Sochi?
Back to Geneva
The joint statement of Iran, Russia and Turkey appears to show that all three parties place great value on the Astana process, which, as the parties stressed at the November 22 meeting, had achieved what other mediators and Geneva process participants had failed to achieve. Specifically, Russia,...
