... consequences of the United States’ withdrawal from the treaty are already obvious and will continue to manifest themselves. In the field of nuclear arms control, the US decision could create a ‘domino effect’: if it abandons the INF Treaty, it puts the New START treaty’s extension into question. Mutual accusations about the failure to abide by this treaty — at least in terms of its spirit, if not the letter — are becoming increasingly loud both in Russia and the US, as are statements that the ...
Russia Should Prepare for the Very Realistic Scenario in which the New START will not be Renewed by 2021 and will thus Cease to Exist
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty), one of the pillars of strategic stability in the world, fell apart before our very eyes. And now the foundations of the core ...
For all the importance of limiting and reducing nuclear arms, the priority task for all should be to prevent a nuclear war
For several years, serious experts in Russia and the West have repeatedly warned the public about the threat of the collapse of the international nuclear arms control system. They spoke about the system, to be precise, because in the past half a century arms control developed as a sum-total of supplementary elements rather than an eclectic set of separate unrelated bilateral...
... consider the issue. (Bolton, of course, is known to be extremely hostile to treaties in general and arms control in particular.) Few expect that he will allow a fair hearing from defense and intelligence officials, who are known to be strong advocates of New START extension.
Light in the Darkness
I cannot deny that prospects for a rejuvenation of arms control any time soon appear bleak. But I have lived through serious arms control challenges in the past. In this regards, 1983 often invades my mind. What ...
RIAC and RUSI Report, #45 / 2019
A report based on findings from the third round of the UK–Russia Track 1.5 (non-governmental) bilateral security dialogue, which
The Royal United Services Institute
(RUSI) held in collaboration with the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
The first year of the project identified several security and geopolitical topics to establish the most productive areas of cooperation between the UK and Russia. The second year built on three of the most fruitful areas...
... Andrei Kortunov, Director General of the Russian Council on International Affairs, the United States’ decision can create a “domino effect” in the nuclear arms control: by quitting the INF Treaty, Washington puts in question the prolongation of the New START agreement, and without the New START, there will be a broader issue of maintaining the nuclear weapons non-proliferation regime.
Three levels of argumentation
Igor Ivanov:
Nuclear Catastrophe: Myth or Reality?
There are three circumstances ...
... opinion. We need to stop these conversations,” the expert said.
Pavel Zolotarev, Head of Research at RAS Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, retired Major General, RIAC expert, noted that the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty threatens New START — an agreement between the Russian Federation and the United States of America on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms. “Almost 99.9% that it will not be renewed. There is no reason to talk about ...
... and Eastern Europe. On the contrary, the emergence of a purely European arms control regime should help the disintegrating U.S.–Russia system of treaties remain in place. This, however, would require both parties to act fairly boldly.
The Future of New START and Arms Control
It should be stressed here that, unless the United States resorts to overly provocative activities in terms of deploying new intermediate and shorter range missile systems aimed directly at the Russian strategic nuclear forces ...
... a role.
But, in my opinion, the most telling blow was dealt in 2001 by the decision of U.S. President George Bush Jr. to unilaterally withdraw from the ABM Treaty. Yes, the Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty was signed in Moscow in 2002, and the New START was signed in 2010. And both these documents are, without a doubt, very important. However, they came as a result of specific political decisions taken by certain leaders, rather than a systemic approach of the two sides to ensuring strategic ...
... much as possible and make the resumption of the talks as simple as possible. There are at least four ways of doing this.
Alexander Yermakov:
Brave New World Without INF Treaty
First, even the absence of formal obligations under the INF Treaty or the New START Treaty cannot stop the sides from honoring them de facto. The analysis of the Russian and American nuclear modernization plans shows that the sides do not intend to move beyond the existing agreements. An informal arrangement or at least a silent ...
