... able to overcome their fundamental disagreements in the coming decade
In November 2020, the EU-Russia Expert Network on Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing ...
..., which offered economic and military assistance while involved in Afghanistan. Finally, historical and ethnic ties play an important role: amongst others, Tajikistan with Afghan Tajiks, Uzbekistan with Uzbeks, Turkmenistan with Turkmen.
Development Scenarios for the Situation in Afghanistan
The multitude of factors that could affect the situation in Afghanistan make any forecasting a challenge. As for the domestic political situation, there are two likely scenarios, which could be called “A Strong ...
Finding solution to some problems would actually be easier without Washington, since the U.S. is often part of the problem rather than part of the solution
The United States is often referred to as an “indispensable nation.” The term was first used in January 1997 by President Bill Clinton during his second inaugural address. Madeleine Albright would mention it in her speeches and writings on numerous occasions after that. The underlying idea of “indispensability” here is that it suggests it would...
... Schmitt’s state of exception here. Moreover, the president is not suspending the activities of the legislative assembly forever—but only for a month. This by no means constitutes a usurpation of power.
All this allows us to offer a number of possible scenarios.
Scenario 1
: Chaos. Concentration of power in the hands of the president brings about hardly any improvements in the situation. High-profile corruption cases are seen as an instrument of settling scores within the political elites, while the ...
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report
2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’...
... disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic partnership that safeguards peace and stability in Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing major ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However...
On February 16, 2020, a session of Munich Security Conference discussed scenarios of Russia's development beyond 2024. The work of a group of experts from Russia, the United Kingdom, Austria, Germany, Latvia, and the United States throughout 2019 resulted in this document.
On February 16, 2020, a session of Munich Security ...
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Austria, Germany, the United...
... becoming increasingly autonomous.
The developments are a nontrivial challenge for Russia’s foreign policy. They are also generating a series of purely research questions. For instance, what will the configuration of the world order be in the future? What scenarios can be expected? How to adapt or how to shape a desired alternative? Answering these will be of extreme importance for transforming Russia’s doctrinal attitudes.
The main problem is that Russia’s prevalent multipolar concept took shape in ...
