RIAC :: Iran,Scenarios

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Potential Scenarios of Iran’s Conflict with the US and Israel Post-Khamenei

.... Because of all of this, the most significant topic at the time is Khamenei's absence and the debates around possible outcomes for Iran's political landscape following his exit from power. Given that the outcome of this war, like the outcome of the Iranian political system, is inextricably linked to the position of the Supreme Leader, the suggested succession scenarios, and the expected political landscape the day after his absence, the importance of this issue may even outweigh discussions of the war's complications and trajectory. Iran showed that it could continue centralised decision-making by establishing ...

12.03.2026

expert column

The Fallout of the US-Iran Confrontation for Russia: Revisiting Factors in Moscow’s Calculus

... Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report RIAC and the Middle East Directions Programme of the EUI Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies Report 2020 witnessed the peak of military tensions between the US and Iran since the conclusion of the tanker-war in 1987. The Trump administration’s maximum pressure campaign and Iran’s resistance/retaliation policy have worked to generate collision points one after another. Despite both sides’ unwillingness to wage ...

28.01.2021

Poll conducted

In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?

U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements	33 (31%)
U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity	30 (28%)
U.S. wants to dissolve Russia	24 (22%)
U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China	21 (19%)