Escalation signaling is a tremendously difficult task that allows for some flexibility but also raises the risks of further escalation
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has demonstrated an unprecedented use of missile capabilities and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) by both militaries. While Ukraine’s capabilities present a significant military-technical challenge for Russia, the fact that they ...
The main result of 2023 has been the transition to a new normal in foreign and domestic policy in Russia
The main result of 2023 has been the transition to a new normal in foreign and domestic policy. In comparison, 2021 was a year of gathering clouds. At the time, an impending rupture was in the air, but to many it seemed unlikely. The reality ...
As the world's two super-nuclear powers, the relations of Russia and the U.S. are inseparable from nuclear risk
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Russia and the United States have been engaged in an almost open nuclear game, but in different forms and with different objectives. Both Russia ...
... is possible only via compromise. In this sense, assessing the likelihood and content of negotiations should be coupled with an analysis of the real capabilities and intentions of the parties to defend their interests under the current conditions.
The Ukrainian crisis that has snowballed into an intense military-political conflict between Russia and the Western nations supporting Ukraine implies a clash of the political interests, whose significance is defined by the participants as vital and crucial, which sharply limits the likelihood of reaching any settlement. The conflict’s current ...
The cost of a conflict with Russia for the United States will be measured not only and not so much by support for Ukraine, but also by the enormous cost of containing the Russian-Chinese tandem
The aggravation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is an indicator of the growing ...
... “cessation on acceptable terms” [
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] without bringing it to a global Armageddon.
An existential threat
Ivan Timofeev:
A Preemptive Nuclear Strike? No!
The decision to deploy Russian TNWs in Belarus, made on March 25, 2023, was a dramatic turn in Russia’s military policy and in the course of the Ukrainian crisis. [
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] This initiative is significant not only because the Russian Federation took such a step for the first time after the collapse of the USSR and thus borrowed NATO’s practice, which it had always condemned and declared a violation ...
Five questions regarding China-Russia relations and Chinese policy through the prism of the Russia-Ukraine conflict
One unexpected outcome of the Russia-Ukraine conflict is that China-Russia relations have taken center stage in global affairs. Even though China is not a party to ...
The world’s power center’s journey, a half millennium later, will have come full circle. Russia is not a bystander, but part of the action, pushing for change
The war in Ukraine, which to most Russians—and not just the Kremlin—is a direct, if not yet a kinetic military conflict with the American-led West, has been reshaping Russia massively ...
..., together with Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), held a round table discussion on relations between Russia and the West in the context of finding ways out of the crisis.
The following issues were discussed: the impact of the Ukrainian crisis on the development of relations between Russia and the West; options for European security architecture in the new conditions; the impact of the conflict on the global context, in particular, the dynamics of the U.S.-China relations, and the impact of the crisis on food security and food supply ...
The referendums organised at the request of the two people's republics of Donetsk and Lugansk (independent since 2014 and recognised by Russia on 21 February 2022) but also in the territories of Zaporizhia and Kherson, have a historical and geopolitical significance on several levels, as it is not only a question of the process of Russian reunification but also of the consolidation of ...
