CIA National Intelligence Estimates on the Cross-Strait and Sino-Russian Relations
... policy in non-recognized states. The CIA speculates that Russia might consider recognizing Taiwan, Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria on the basis of the Montevideo Convention, which it will do for Abkhazia and South Ossetia in 2008. The possibility of Russia recognizing Taiwan to justify its own recognition of Abkhazia and South-Ossetia is therefore a hypothesis suggested by the CIA in its report. Finally, the analysis considers that China's refusal to allow Russia to exert influence in Xinjiang and China's western territories, as well as tensions in the Russian Far-East,...