... regional players.
Ivan Bocharov:
In the Grips of the Army: The Egyptian Economy
From the Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the situation in Libya, Russia and Egypt share similar positions on many issues on the region’s agenda. It is also important that Egypt favors restoring Syria's sovereignty over all its territories, although Cairo has not restored diplomatic relations with Damascus yet.
Cooperation between Russia and Egypt in the energy sector deserves special attention. In 2015, Gazprom and Egyptian company EGAS signed ...
... simple majority are quite high. However, political circumstances may intervene in the situation.
Syria in the regional context
Aleksandr Aksenenok:
Twelve Years into Syrian Conflict
The intrigue lies not so much in the outcome of the voting as in whether Syria’s return will be on the agenda at all. Thus, as recently as last fall, Egyptian officials made it clear that the decision to return a seat in the LAS to Assad’s government must be taken unanimously. This is important because the Arabs need to demonstrate unity, given that the reinstatement of the SAR in the League is being ...
... expand more confidently into Africa with time, thus complicating Russian interests there too (which are beyond the scope of the present analysis despite some of the countries being Muslim-majority ones). If pressed to choose, Russia should side more with Egypt and the UAE, especially since the latter can open doors for Russia in other regions if their partnership reaches the strategic level through cooperation here and elsewhere.
Levant: Resolving the War in Syria
Russia must somehow resolve the Syrian dilemma, ideally by pairing an Iranian withdrawal with the nuclear deal, sanctions relief for Syria, and some form of decentralization that is acceptable to Damascus. Moscow must also ensure that Turkish influence ...
... position itself as uniquely valuable to one or hopefully both sides. This will require creative diplomacy and perhaps more skillful leveraging of its reported PMC presence in the East.
The Levant: Complex Multipolar Balancing
Political Risks for Russian-Egyptian Cooperation in North Africa. RIAC and ECFA Report
Russia’s anti-terrorist intervention in Syria was truly a game changer that has since resulted in transforming Moscow into a regional diplomatic power broker. It is rightly perceived as a neutral actor for the most part due to its principled diplomatic stance in Syria, whereby it does its best ...
... “bloc-based” approach to developing the fields and transporting gas; there are long- standing conflicts (the Cyprus question, the Palestinian question); there are no diplomatic contacts between individual regional actors (for instance, between Turkey and Egypt, between Turkey and Syria); all these factors exacerbate mistrust and undermine regional security. The Eastern Mediterranean states are committed to resolving economic interaction issues through dialogue provided there are one or more independent actors capable of taking ...
... becomes extremely “toxic” to the rest of the world. Diversification away from oil stops, and the country mostly deals in “arms and oil”.
Egypt
(a) Becomes ever more oppressive. Attempts to invigorate the economy fail. Terrorism.
(b) War in Egypt (like Libya + Syria).
Jordan
follows a similar path to Egypt.
Bahrain
continues as it is today.
“
Black Swans
”:
Qatar
may experience an invasion from Saudi Arabia, resulting in a more oppressive system.
Iraq
in the North, may, but this is more uncertain, also ...
... outside world.
This perception is largely unfair.
Russia's Foreign Policy: Looking Towards 2018
Russia and the West
Turkey, Egypt and Tunisia are not the only playgrounds for terrorists; so too are Barcelona, Nice, Paris, Berlin, Boston, St. Petersburg ... ... especially against the backdrop of the misfortune that has befallen the region as a whole.
Even the most problematic countries – Syria, and even Libya and Yemen – have not experienced a complete of statehood. What is more, modern mechanisms (elections, ...
... expand significantly the circle of its partners in the Middle East. We can note the high level of cooperation of Russia with Egypt, Israel, new partners in the Gulf, such as Bahrain, some progress in relations with Qatar, cooperation with Saudi Arabia ... ... course, the normalization of relations with Turkey, including the beginning of cooperation between Moscow and Ankara on the Syrian crisis, which is completely new and unexpected trend. In fact, by the end of the year, Turkey has replaced the United States ...
... should not be trusted; the West can easily ‘sell out’ its longtime allies and friends in the region (e.g. Mubarak in Egypt); even a UN Security Council resolution can be violated or interpreted in a very liberal way. Third, if Russia remains an ... ... over Russia’s borders.
The practical application of this new approach was the Moscow engagement into the civil war in Syria. In this bloody and protracted conflict, Moscow demonstrated much more than its readiness to oppose what was perceived as ...
... Saudis’ actions vis-à-vis Assad’s “dictatorship” and the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt two month before were fundamentally similar. In both cases, they created pretexts for military interference by a third party: the army in Egypt, and Americans in Syria. In both cases, the tactical goals of the Saudis coincided with the interests of Turkey and Israel (the chaos in the Middle East, caused by the Arab Spring, posed growing security threats to the latter). As a result, the pressure on Barack Obama ...
