Russia and Ukraine: Four Scenarios for the Future

... meddling in the domestic affairs of European states. Russian support for “Eurosceptics” and right-wing populists in the European Union peters out. Russia succeeds in shifting the major responsibility for non-compliance with the Minsk agreements onto the Ukrainian leadership. The West becomes progressively more annoyed with Kiev, and this annoyance is further ... ... “Balkanization” scenario). If these processes transpire simultaneously, an opportunity arises to avoid many of the risks that the other scenarios entail and gradually transform Ukraine into an economic, political and even cultural and civilizational bridge between ...