Working Paper #66, 2022
Working Paper #66, 2022
The Russian-Ukrainian conflict will lead to long-term global socio-economic and political consequences in the foreseeable future. Russian and foreign experts are currently exploring a wide range of scenarios for such transformation—from relatively positive to extremely negative. The author formulated three potentially possible options for the current world order transformation, assessing the probability and consequences of the practical implementation ...
... influence the military-political situation. The war is fraught with a humanitarian crisis, the consequences of which will hit the European Union. Without any war, the EU countries effectively work with the peripheral economy of Ukraine and use it as a demographic ... ... higher today, despite the existing sanctions. In other words, further territorial expansion can be viewed in Moscow as one of the scenarios. However, an open war with Ukraine will not solve the existing security problems, even if new territories are under ...
... Foreign Policy (EUREN), a group of 40 eminent experts from different places in Russia and 14 EU member states,
published
four scenarios for the future of EU-Russia relations: A “Cold Partnership” in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately ... ... This changes Moscow’s foreign policy rationale and opens a window of opportunity for more constructive engagement with the European Union, including on the Donbas conflict. Both sides are able to steer their relationship through the choppy waters of ...
... disagreements in the coming decade. But the two sides can come to a pragmatic partnership that safeguards peace and stability in Europe. This is the main finding of the EUREN scenario-building process, conducted between February and September 2020. Four scenarios were developed:
1. A "
Cold Partnership
" in a multipolar world, where Russia and the EU ultimately return to extensive cooperation on issues such as climate change, digitalisation and visa liberalisation, while still facing major ...
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Policy Brief #27 / 2020
Executive Summary
— The report asesses the risks of sanctions against Russia over the year.
— By 2020, the use of sanctions against Russia had gained much more stability compared to previous years. The damage caused by the new restrictive measures can be considered limited. The key issue is whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However...
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
On September 5–6, 2019, in Vienna, FES Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace in Europe held the second closed scenario forecasting seminar “Looking beyond the Horizon of 2024” on the long-term future of Russia.
An international group of experts from Austria, Germany, the United...
... and relying on significant successes in implementing socioeconomic reforms, Ukraine will more insistently demand a speedy integration into the bodies of NATO and the European Union. Although Ukraine is unlikely to become a full member of either the European Union or NATO in the foreseeable future, cooperation with these organizations will become intense and multifaceted.
Andrey Kortunov:
Europe and Russia: Four Scenarios for the New Cycle
If this scenario materializes, then for Russian authorities, Ukraine will become not merely a major nuisance, but a fundamental existential challenge. The prospect of Ukraine inevitably joining NATO entails the intensive militarization ...
... a matrix containing four quadrants; each of them stands for a scenario of the future EU — Russia relationship. Each of the scenarios has its logic, its driving forces, its limitations and its likely implications for both sides.
Igor Ivanov:
Russia’s ... ... Policy: New Challenges, New Horizons
“No Man’s Land” (weak Europe, no reforms in Russia)
. Under this scenario neither the European Union, nor Russia is able to rise to the occasion and to address their respective challenges in a serious way. EU remains ...
... military, mostly from the EU member countries.
Alexey Gromyko, RIAC member and Director of the RAS Institute of Europe, and Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, took part in the work of the Dahrendorf Symposium and addressed the meeting.
Programme
European Union in the World 2025 – Scenarios for External Relations
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
Scenarios of How the Crisis may Unfold
The Ukrainian crisis presents the most serious and dangerous challenge to European security ... ... something closer to hard line national statehood. Ukraine is the nexus where the interests of such key players as Russia, the European Union and the United States have clashed, making this purely domestic crisis turn into a regional and even global issue....
