... to move beyond the animosity and toward rapprochement, a process that intensified after the
failed military coup attempt
in Turkey in July 2016. The launch of Astana format in Syria, the purchase of S-400 systems, the Turkish Stream gas pipeline, and ... ... continued to contradict and conflict, most notably with regard to the fate of Idlib and northeastern Syria and the situation in Libya. This complex maze of coinciding and contradicting interests was governed by unspoken ground rules between the two sides,...
... recommended that they are reviewed together in order to obtain a better understanding of everything.
Andrew Korybko:
The Geostrategic Challenges of Russia’s “Ummah Pivot”
Russian Interests
North Africa: Becoming the Libyan Power Broker
In North Africa, Libya is the scene of intense competition between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Egypt, the UAE, and France on the other. Russia must therefore seek a compromise solution that prevents either side from becoming dominant, with Russia playing the kingmaker role if possible (perhaps through a mix of ...
... countries are ideological allies in so far as their shared support for political Islam goes, especially through the Muslim Brotherhood. Another point that deserves mentioning is that the GCC (with the exception of Qatar) is in
regional rivalry
with Turkey across North Africa (Libya) and the Levant (Syria). Although Ankara is
trying to resolve
this rivalry, just like with Qatar, even an official end to it might not change the dynamics completely. In other words, one can say that among the most powerful transregional trends ...
... National Security Advisor, supported the initial NATO intervention in Libya. However, Biden
opposed
the move while serving as Vice President to Barack Obama. Biden may follow the Trump administration’s hands-off approach instead, leaving Russia and Turkey’s calculations unaltered.
All the same, Libya edges closer towards a political resolution, with Turkey and Russia remaining fundamentally at odds over the country’s future. Differences between the two countries are unlikely to escalate into a larger conflict but are still a cause for concern ...
...
Mavi Vatan
) doctrine as part of Turkey’s maritime strategy; Gürdeniz is
considered
to be one of the principal architects of Turkey’s current policy in the Mediterranean and of the ideology of demarcating the borders with Libya.
The agreements Turkey and the Libyan government concluded in late 2019 resulted from a bilateral Ankara-Tripoli arrangement achieved with complete disregard for other actors and for the 1982 Convention on the Law of the Sea. Since Turkey is not a signatory to that Convention, Ankara ...
... Egypt, Greece and Israel cannot establish a gas transmission line without first getting permission from Turkey."
Soon thereafter, Turkey began illegal oil and gas drilling in the Mediterranean. In November 2019, an agreement was signed between Turkey and the Libyan Government of National Accord (GNA), led by Faiz Saraj, to establish maritime zones in the Eastern Mediterranean. It is noteworthy that proposals to conclude such an agreement have been received by the Tripoli government since 2018, but the GNA ...
... balance of power of the warring parties dramatically, gives Azerbaijan false hope that the Nagorno-Karabakh can be resolved quickly through military means and, as a result, makes the signing of any peace agreement that much more difficult.
Escalation in Libya
. Turkey has been one of the main foreign actors in the Libyan Civil War from the very beginning. It was Turkish intervention that prevented Marshal Khalifa Haftar from capturing Tripoli. But if Ankara continues to internationalize the Libyan conflict by ...
... converted the Hagia Sophia Museum into the Hagia Sophia Grand Mosque. Such a decision has drawn a wide range of criticism from Turkey's western allies, as well as from inside the country.
Grigory Lukyanov, Ruslan Mamedov:
Playing Pick-Up-Sticks in Libya — 2
Turkey has created the impression among Muslim countries that it can cause much deprivation and misery, as compared to Saudi Arabia that is in a leading role of the Muslim Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC). In recent developments, after the historic ...
... revolution in the country. Yet the Kremlin’s refusal to back any one party to the conflict, its constant manoeuvring and zigzagging on the Libyan field ultimately brought Russia unexpected dividends, as this strategy allowed the country, together with Turkey, to lead the settlement of the Libyan crisis. Significantly, the decisions that the Russian leadership openly calls mistakes today (then President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev refusing to veto UN Security Council
Resolution
1973 about a no-fly zone over Libya) have in ...
... of Ankara's associated provocations.
Turkey's “neo-surrealist” claim (as Greek FM Nikos Dendias once quipped) about Islands is currently extended to its two “MoUs” with Libya's GNA government in Tripoli. The memorandum allegedly delineating a Turkey-Libya EEZ presupposes the elimination of the sovereign rights of numerous Greek islands, including Rhodes and Crete, by
abolishing
their Continental Shelf and EEZ. The EU has repeatedly deplored this memorandum as illegal. Athens and Nicosia have rejected ...
