... are becoming increasingly wary of Ankara’s efforts to project its influence along Russian borders
Russo–Turkish relations have been at the forefront of recent media... ... suspicious of the activities of any NATO member state in its immediate neighborhood. Turkey is no exception in this regard.
Ankara made its first foray into the Caucasus... ... notably with regard to the fate of Idlib and northeastern Syria and the situation in Libya. This complex maze of coinciding and contradicting interests was governed by unspoken...
... recommended that they are reviewed together in order to obtain a better understanding of everything.
Andrew Korybko:
The Geostrategic Challenges of Russia’s “Ummah Pivot”
Russian Interests
North Africa: Becoming the Libyan Power Broker
In North Africa, Libya is the scene of intense competition between Turkey on the one hand and Russia, Egypt, the UAE, and France on the other. Russia must therefore seek a compromise solution that prevents either side from becoming dominant, with Russia playing the kingmaker role if possible (perhaps through a mix of creative diplomacy, energy ...
... Pivot”.
North Africa: All Eyes on Libya
Beginning from North Africa and moving eastward through the Levant, Gulf, South Caucasus, Iran, Central Asia and South Asia, the first-mentioned region is plagued by the security threats emanating from the war-torn Libya, where a slew of external powers is competing to shape the outcome of its ongoing civil war. First and foremost among them are Turkey, Russia, France, Egypt and the UAE, though the U.S. also plays a naturally important role, even if the country has tended to neglect this conflict over the past few years—despite being responsible for it over a decade ago.
The region’s future will ...
... having discovered natural gas reserves, is heating up.
Russia’s motives in Libya are primarily economic. After Gaddafi was toppled, Russia, much like Turkey, lost lucrative contracts, and Moscow is now keen on
salvaging
unfulfilled deals. Unlike Turkey, however, Russia has fewer political goals in Libya, which allows for a greater degree of flexibility.
One of the thorniest issues facing Libya’s new interim government is the agreed October deadline for foreign forces to withdraw from the country. It is unclear how the withdrawal will take place,...
... that the situation could get out of hand, the U.S. have therefore been prompted to recognise, at least at expert level, the need to work on technical deconfliction measures in this part of the world. This requires finding a way to untangle the Cyprus, Libya and Syria questions.
Artyom Semyonov:
Gas Without a Fight: Is Turkey Ready to Go to War for Resources in the Mediterranean?
As for Russia’s policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, we should recall Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov visited Damascus and Cyprus in 2020. Mr. Lavrov emphasised that escalation was inadmissible and called for peaceful resolution of the ...
... delimitation of economic zones in the Mediterranean, Turkey is pitted not only against Greece but also against virtually all of Russia's partners and friends in the Eastern Mediterranean. The "Greek issue," compounded by Turkey's activity in Libya (which makes Moscow uneasy), could trigger a new crisis in Russia–Turkey relations.
Expansion of military-technical cooperation with Ukraine
. Russia and Turkey have always had fundamentally different views on Ukraine and Crimea, especially since the outbreak of the Ukrainian crisis in 2014. One way or another, Moscow ...
... and Ankara gained during the Syrian settlement was rather successfully transferred into Libya and certainly played a positive role for Russia. This is why experts even talked for a while about Russia and Turkey pushing for an “Astana format” for Libya. Today, all signs point to Russia and Turkey further strengthening their standing in Libya, while el-Sisi’s demarches will hardly be able to diminish their role. Egypt’s unsuccessful attempts to act as a guarantor of the so-called “Cairo Declaration” have forced it to switch to a ...
... two countries can continue building their relations 'even under the anti-Russian situation of sanctions' by the EU.” He also expressed appreciation for “the established stance of the Greeks, that the architecture of security in Europe must include Russia as well.” And when asked about the recent Turkey-Libya memorandum on maritime zones, “the ambassador said he did not want to 'enter into detailed commentary' on the issue, which should be left to experts, but '
the main issue is to observe the principles of international law, including the Lausanne ...
... opened up opportunities to coordinate efforts on containing Turkey regionally (in which Abu-Dhabi and Cairo would happily assist). A steady UAE–Syria rapprochement is greatly advanced by their resentment of Turkey’s regional policies.
Ruslan Mamedov:
Russia's “Wait and See” Policies and the Libyan Settlement
Turkey entrenched its Libyan presence by signing a memorandum of understanding with the GNA on maritime
zones
, and a memorandum on security and military cooperation. Doubts were raised about the legal status of the agreements, and its very signing drew ...
... warring parties cannot find a political solution to the conflict, Libya will remain a country divided into two parts for a very long time
On June 15, 2020, Turkish Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlut Cavusoglu
stated
there are no disagreements between Russia and Turkey on the fundamental principles of the Libyan settlement. Moscow and Ankara are continuing negotiations at the technical level to develop a mechanism for establishing a ceasefire and start the process of political settlement of the Libyan conflict.
Who is Fighting in Libya?
Kirill Semenov:
...
